2026 Season · Week 1

Week 1 OnVarsity

Open any matchup to compare the independent OnVarsity Line with the market, inspect possible Explanatory Factors, and make your own pick.

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Week 1

Sep 3–Sep 7 · 91 games
← Week 0Week 2 →
Final · Sep 6Suggested side did not cover#1 matchup
Spread:MISS -8.5vs.MISS -6.5
1 Factor
Neutral site · Nashville, TN · Nissan Stadium — Liberty Mutual Music City Kickoff
Final · Sep 5Suggested side covered#2 matchup
OV Win94%34
Spread:ORE -21.5vs.ORE -25
1 Factor
Boise State at Oregon · Eugene, OR · Autzen Stadium
Final · Sep 5Suggested side covered#3 matchup
OV Win82%51
Spread:LSU -12.5vs.LSU -10
Clemson at LSU · Baton Rouge, LA · Tiger Stadium (LA)
Final · Sep 7Suggested side pushed#4 matchup
OV Win60%27
Spread:SMU -3.5vs.SMU -3
SMU at Florida State · Tallahassee, FL · Doak Campbell Stadium
Final · Sep 6Suggested side did not cover#5 matchup
Spread:ND -17.5vs.ND -21.5
1 Factor
Neutral site · Greenbay, WI · Lambeau Field
Final · Sep 5Suggested side did not cover#6 matchup
OV Win30%16
OV Win70%17
Spread:AUB -7.5vs.AUB -6.5
Neutral site · Atlanta, GA · Mercedes-Benz Stadium — Aflac Kickoff
Final · Sep 5Suggested side did not cover#7 matchup
OV Win49%45
Spread:CAL -0.5vs.UCLA -2.5
UCLA at California · Berkeley, CA · California Memorial Stadium
Final · Sep 3Suggested side did not cover#8 matchup
Spread:GT -8vs.GT -6.5
1 Factor
Colorado at Georgia Tech · Atlanta, GA · Bobby Dodd Stadium
Final · Sep 4Suggested side did not cover#9 matchup
OV Win92%39
Spread:USC -19.5vs.USC -22.5
Fresno State at USC · Los Angeles, CA · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
Final · Sep 5Suggested side did not cover#10 matchup
OV Win98%59
Spread:TEX -27.5vs.TEX -29.5
1 Factor
Texas State at Texas · Austin, TX · DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium
Final · Sep 6Suggested side covered#11 matchup
Spread:WASH -18vs.WASH -24
Washington State at Washington · Seattle, WA · Husky Stadium
Final · Sep 5Suggested side did not cover#12 matchup
OV Win70%17
Spread:DUKE -7.5vs.DUKE -9
Tulane at Duke · Durham, NC · Wallace Wade Stadium
Final · Sep 5Suggested side covered#13 matchup
Spread:CIN -10.5vs.CIN -7
1 Factor
Boston College at Cincinnati · Cincinnati, OH · Nippert Stadium
Final · Sep 5Suggested side covered#14 matchup
Spread:HOU -19.5vs.HOU -21
Oregon State at Houston · Houston, TX · TDECU Stadium
Final · Sep 4Suggested side did not cover#15 matchup
OV Win96%45
Spread:MIA -24vs.MIA -24.5
1 Factor
Miami at Stanford · Stanford, CA · Stanford Stadium
Final · Sep 5Suggested side covered#16 matchup
OV Win<0.01%16
OV Win>99.9%52
Spread:IU -36.5vs.IU -40
1 Factor
North Texas at Indiana · Bloomington, IN · Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN)
Final · Sep 5Suggested side did not cover#17 matchup
Spread:ALA -27.5vs.ALA -28
2 Factors
East Carolina at Alabama · Tuscaloosa, AL · Bryant-Denny Stadium
Final · Sep 5Suggested side covered#18 matchup
Spread:MICH -28.5vs.MICH -27.5
1 Factor
Western Michigan at Michigan · Ann Arbor, MI · Michigan Stadium
Final · Sep 5Suggested side covered#19 matchup
OV Win18%24
Spread:OKST -12.5vs.OKST -13
Oklahoma State at Tulsa · Tulsa, OK · Chapman Stadium
Final · Sep 5Suggested side did not cover#20 matchup
Spread:FLA -25vs.FLA -25.5
1 Factor
Florida Atlantic at Florida · Gainesville, FL · Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
Final · Sep 4Suggested side pushed#21 matchup
OV Win22%20
Spread:MSU -11vs.MSU -10
Toledo at Michigan State · East Lansing, MI · Spartan Stadium
Final · Sep 5Suggested side covered#22 matchup
Spread:JMU -10vs.JMU -6.5
Liberty at James Madison · Harrisonburg, VA · Bridgeforth Stadium
Final · Sep 5#23 matchup
Spread:PSU -25vs.PSU -23.5
1 Factor
Marshall at Penn State · University Park, PA · Beaver Stadium
Final · Sep 5Suggested side covered#24 matchup
South Dakota StateFCS
OV Win5%18
Spread:NU -23vs.NU -14
1 Factor
South Dakota State at Northwestern · Evanston, IL · Lanny and Sharon Martin Stadium
Final · Sep 5Suggested side covered#25 matchup
Spread:PITT -21vs.PITT -16.5
2 Factors
Miami (OH) at Pittsburgh · Pittsburgh, PA · Acrisure Stadium
Final · Sep 5Suggested side covered#26 matchup
OV Win57%21
Spread:UNLV -2.5vs.UNLV -2
UNLV at Hawai'i · Honolulu, HI · Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex
Final · Sep 5Suggested side did not cover#27 matchup
Idaho StateFCS
OV Win7%29
Spread:USU -20.5vs.USU -15.5
Idaho State at Utah State · Logan, UT · Maverik Stadium
Final · Sep 5Suggested side covered#28 matchup
Spread:MEM -11.5vs.MEM -10.5
Arkansas State at Memphis · Memphis, TN · Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium
Final · Sep 5Suggested side covered#29 matchup
Spread:CSU -8vs.CSU -2.5
1 Factor
Wyoming at Colorado State · Fort Collins, CO · Canvas Stadium
Final · Sep 5Suggested side did not cover#30 matchup
SE LouisianaFCS
OV Win21%14
Spread:USA -11.5vs.USA -13.5
SE Louisiana at South Alabama · Mobile, AL · Hancock Whitney Stadium
Final · Sep 5Suggested side covered#31 matchup
Abilene ChristianFCS
OV Win<0.01%10
OV Win>99.9%33
Spread:TTU -44.5vs.TTU -44.5
1 Factor
Abilene Christian at Texas Tech · Lubbock, TX · Jones AT&T Stadium
Final · Sep 5Suggested side did not cover#32 matchup
OV Win5%21
Spread:NEB -22.5vs.NEB -24
1 Factor
Ohio at Nebraska · Lincoln, NE · Memorial Stadium (Lincoln, NE)
Final · Sep 5Suggested side covered#33 matchup
Youngstown StateFCS
OV Win2%13
Spread:UK -29vs.UK -22.5
2 Factors
Youngstown State at Kentucky · Lexington, KY · Kroger Field
Final · Sep 5Suggested side did not cover#34 matchup
Spread:WKU -3.5vs.WKU -0.5
Western Kentucky at Nevada · Reno, NV · Mackay Stadium
Final · Sep 5Suggested side did not cover#35 matchup
Austin PeayFCS
OV Win1%9
Spread:VAN -30.5vs.VAN -28.5
2 Factors
Austin Peay at Vanderbilt · Nashville, TN · FirstBank Stadium
Final · Sep 5#36 matchup
Spread:USF -14.5vs.USF -14.5
Florida International at South Florida · Tampa, FL · Raymond James Stadium
Final · Sep 5#37 matchup
UT Rio Grande ValleyFCS
OV Win3%16
OV Win97%45
Spread:UTSA -26vs.UTSA -28.5
1 Factor
UT Rio Grande Valley at UTSA · San Antonio, TX · Alamodome
Final · Sep 5#38 matchup
Spread:WVU -21.5vs.WVU -21
2 Factors
Coastal Carolina at West Virginia · Morgantown, WV · Milan Puskar Stadium
Final · Sep 5Suggested side covered#39 matchup
Spread:UNM -13.5vs.UNM -11
1 Factor
Central Michigan at New Mexico · Albuquerque, NM · University Stadium (NM)
Final · Sep 3Suggested side did not cover#40 matchup
OV Win2%23
Spread:ILL -28.5vs.ILL -25.5
1 Factor
UAB at Illinois · Champaign, IL · Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL)
Final · Sep 4Suggested side did not cover#41 matchup
Spread:EMU -4.5vs.EMU -1
San José State at Eastern Michigan · Ypsilanti, MI · Rynearson Stadium
Final · Sep 5Suggested side did not cover#42 matchup
Northern ArizonaFCS
OV Win1%7
Spread:ARIZ -35vs.ARIZ -33
1 Factor
Northern Arizona at Arizona · Tucson, AZ · Arizona Stadium
Final · Sep 3Suggested side did not cover#43 matchup
West GeorgiaFCS
OV Win19%0
Spread:KENN -12vs.KENN -21.5
West Georgia at Kennesaw State · Kennesaw, GA · Fifth Third Stadium
Final · Sep 5Suggested side did not cover#44 matchup
Rhode IslandFCS
OV Win16%14
Spread:TEM -13.5vs.TEM -14.5
Rhode Island at Temple · Philadelphia, PA · Lincoln Financial Field
Final · Sep 5Suggested side covered#45 matchup
Tarleton StateFCS
OV Win58%20
Spread:Tarleton State -2.5vs.BGSU -2
Tarleton State at Bowling Green · Bowling Green, OH · Doyt L. Perry Stadium
Final · Sep 3Suggested side covered#46 matchup
IdahoFCS
OV Win<0.01%14
OV Win>99.9%66
Spread:UTAH -40vs.UTAH -37.5
1 Factor
Idaho at Utah · Salt Lake City, UT · Rice-Eccles Stadium
Final · Sep 5Suggested side did not cover#47 matchup
OV Win99%40
Spread:IOWA -33.5vs.IOWA -31
2 Factors
Northern Illinois at Iowa · Iowa City, IA · Kinnick Stadium
Final · Sep 5Suggested side did not cover#48 matchup
OV Win>99.9%50
Spread:TA&M -41vs.TA&M -39
1 Factor
Missouri State at Texas A&M · College Station, TX · Kyle Field
Final · Sep 5Suggested side did not cover#49 matchup
LamarFCS
OV Win11%7
Spread:UL -17vs.UL -20.5
Lamar at Louisiana · Lafayette, LA · Cajun Field
Final · Sep 4Suggested side did not cover#50 matchup
OV Win<0.01%0
OV Win>99.9%51
Spread:OU -42.5vs.OU -41
1 Factor
UTEP at Oklahoma · Norman, OK · Memorial Stadium (Norman, OK)
Final · Sep 3Suggested side covered#51 matchup
Spread:WAKE -23vs.WAKE -28
1 Factor
Akron at Wake Forest · Winston-Salem, NC · Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium
Final · Sep 5Suggested side did not cover#52 matchup
Eastern KentuckyFCS
OV Win8%7
Spread:JXST -19.5vs.JXST -22.5
Eastern Kentucky at Jacksonville State · Jacksonville, AL · AmFirst Stadium
Final · Sep 5Suggested side did not cover#53 matchup
Spread:MSST -27vs.MSST -28.5
1 Factor
UL Monroe at Mississippi State · Starkville, MS · Davis Wade Stadium
Final · Sep 5Suggested side did not cover#54 matchup
New HampshireFCS
OV Win3%3
Spread:SYR -26vs.SYR -35.5
1 Factor
New Hampshire at Syracuse · Syracuse, NY · JMA Wireless Dome
Final · Sep 5Suggested side did not cover#55 matchup
OV Win>99.9%56
Spread:OSU -54.5vs.OSU -50
2 Factors
Ball State at Ohio State · Columbus, OH · Ohio Stadium
Final · Sep 5Suggested side did not cover#56 matchup
OV Win92%24
Spread:TROY -19.5vs.TROY -16.5
Sam Houston at Troy · Troy, AL · Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)
Final · Sep 5Suggested side did not cover#57 matchup
LafayetteFCS
OV Win10%7
OV Win90%56
Spread:CONN -18vs.CONN -21.5
Lafayette at UConn · East Hartford, CT · Pratt & Whitney Stadium
Final · Sep 5Suggested side did not cover#58 matchup
Spread:SC -35vs.SC -35.5
1 Factor
Kent State at South Carolina · Columbia, SC · Williams-Brice Stadium
Final · Sep 5Suggested side covered#59 matchup
NichollsFCS
OV Win<0.01%3
Spread:KSU -42vs.KSU -41.5
1 Factor
Nicholls at Kansas State · Manhattan, KS · Bill Snyder Family Stadium
Final · Sep 5Suggested side did not cover#60 matchup
TowsonFCS
OV Win1%15
OV Win99%42
Spread:NAVY -32vs.NAVY -31.5
1 Factor
Towson at Navy · Annapolis, MD · Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium
Final · Sep 3Suggested side covered#61 matchup
Spread:RUTG -31vs.RUTG -29
1 Factor
Massachusetts at Rutgers · Piscataway, NJ · SHI Stadium
Final · Sep 5Suggested side covered#62 matchup
MaineFCS
OV Win6%3
Spread:APP -21.5vs.APP -20.5
1 Factor
Maine at App State · Boone, NC · Kidd Brewer Stadium
Final · Sep 5Suggested side did not cover#63 matchup
DuquesneFCS
OV Win3%0
Spread:AF -26.5vs.AF -31.5
1 Factor
Duquesne at Air Force · Colorado Springs, CO · Falcon Stadium
Final · Sep 5Suggested side did not cover#64 matchup
Charleston SouthernFCS
OV Win4%0
Spread:GASO -24vs.GASO -28.5
1 Factor
Charleston Southern at Georgia Southern · Statesboro, GA · Allen E. Paulson Stadium
Final · Sep 5Suggested side did not cover#65 matchup
Utah TechFCS
OV Win<0.01%7
OV Win>99.9%63
Spread:BYU -51vs.BYU -50.5
1 Factor
Utah Tech at BYU · Provo, UT · LaVell Edwards Stadium
Final · Sep 5Suggested side did not cover#66 matchup
Southeast Missouri StateFCS
OV Win<0.01%10
OV Win>99.9%38
Spread:ISU -36.5vs.ISU -30.5
1 Factor
Southeast Missouri State at Iowa State · Ames, IA · Jack Trice Stadium
Final · Sep 4Suggested side covered#67 matchup
Indiana StateFCS
OV Win1%19
OV Win99%44
Spread:PUR -30vs.PUR -35
1 Factor
Indiana State at Purdue · West Lafayette, IN · Ross-Ade Stadium
Final · Sep 5Suggested side covered#68 matchup
The CitadelFCS
OV Win24%43
Spread:CLT -9.5vs.CLT -20.5
The Citadel at Charlotte · Charlotte, NC · Jerry Richardson Stadium
Final · Sep 4Suggested side did not cover#69 matchup
Long Island UniversityFCS
OV Win<0.01%6
OV Win>99.9%51
Spread:KU -39vs.KU -44.5
2 Factors
Long Island University at Kansas · Lawrence, KS · Memorial Stadium
Final · Sep 5Suggested side covered#70 matchup
FurmanFCS
OV Win<0.01%9
OV Win>99.9%56
Spread:TENN -50vs.TENN -49.5
2 Factors
Furman at Tennessee · Knoxville, TN · Neyland Stadium
Final · Sep 5#71 matchup
North AlabamaFCS
OV Win<0.01%14
OV Win>99.9%31
Spread:ARK -39.5vs.ARK -40.5
1 Factor
North Alabama at Arkansas · Fayetteville, AR · Razorback Stadium
Final · Sep 5Suggested side did not cover#72 matchup
Murray StateFCS
OV Win8%14
Spread:MTSU -20vs.MTSU -22.5
Murray State at Middle Tennessee · Murfreesboro, TN · Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium
Final · Sep 5Suggested side did not cover#73 matchup
MercyhurstFCS
OV Win9%14
Spread:NMSU -18.5vs.NMSU -29.5
Mercyhurst at New Mexico State · Las Cruces, NM · Aggie Memorial Stadium
Final · Sep 3Suggested side did not cover#74 matchup
MerrimackFCS
OV Win3%7
Spread:DEL -26vs.DEL -31.5
1 Factor
Merrimack at Delaware · Newark, DE · Delaware Stadium
Final · Sep 3Suggested side covered#75 matchup
Eastern IllinoisFCS
OV Win<0.01%7
OV Win>99.9%59
Spread:MINN -44vs.MINN -42.5
1 Factor
Eastern Illinois at Minnesota · Minneapolis, MN · Huntington Bank Stadium
Final · Sep 3Suggested side did not cover#76 matchup
Bethune-CookmanFCS
OV Win<0.01%6
OV Win>99.9%73
Spread:UCF -38.5vs.UCF -43
1 Factor
Bethune-Cookman at UCF · Orlando, FL · FBC Mortgage Stadium
Final · Sep 5Suggested side did not cover#77 matchup
Portland StateFCS
OV Win<0.01%20
Spread:SDSU -40.5vs.SDSU -38.5
1 Factor
Portland State at San Diego State · San Diego, CA · Snapdragon Stadium
Final · Sep 5Suggested side covered#78 matchup
BryantFCS
OV Win<0.01%3
OV Win>99.9%59
Spread:ARMY -38.5vs.ARMY -37
1 Factor
Bryant at Army · West Point, NY · Michie Stadium
Final · Sep 5Suggested side covered#79 matchup
Houston ChristianFCS
OV Win2%3
OV Win98%31
Spread:RICE -28.5vs.RICE -22.5
1 Factor
Houston Christian at Rice · Houston, TX · Rice Stadium
Final · Sep 3Suggested side did not cover#80 matchup
UAlbanyFCS
OV Win4%17
Spread:BUF -24.5vs.BUF -18.5
1 Factor
UAlbany at Buffalo · Amherst, NY · UB Stadium
Final · Sep 5#81 matchup
Alcorn StateFCS
OV Win8%3
Spread:USM -19.5vs.USM -19.5
Alcorn State at Southern Miss · Hattiesburg, MS · M. M. Roberts Stadium
Final · Sep 5Suggested side covered#82 matchup
Morgan StateFCS
OV Win<0.01%7
Spread:ASU -46vs.ASU -43.5
1 Factor
Morgan State at Arizona State · Tempe, AZ · Mountain America Stadium
Final · Sep 5Suggested side covered#83 matchup
FordhamFCS
OV Win<0.01%0
Spread:NDSU -41vs.NDSU -41.5
1 Factor
Fordham at North Dakota State · Fargo, ND · Fargodome
Final · Sep 5Suggested side covered#84 matchup
Tennessee StateFCS
OV Win<0.01%3
OV Win>99.9%63
Spread:UGA -68vs.UGA -49.5
1 Factor
Tennessee State at Georgia · Athens, GA · Sanford Stadium
Final · Sep 5Suggested side did not cover#85 matchup
Norfolk StateFCS
OV Win<0.01%10
Spread:ODU -41.5vs.ODU -41.5
1 Factor
Norfolk State at Old Dominion · Norfolk, VA · S.B. Ballard Stadium
Final · Sep 3Suggested side covered#86 matchup
Arkansas-Pine BluffFCS
OV Win<0.01%14
OV Win>99.9%54
Spread:MIZ -54.5vs.MIZ -55.5
1 Factor
Arkansas-Pine Bluff at Missouri · Columbia, MO · Memorial Stadium
Final · Sep 5Suggested side did not cover#87 matchup
Northwestern StateFCS
OV Win1%6
Spread:LT -35vs.LT -44.5
1 Factor
Northwestern State at Louisiana Tech · Ruston, LA · Joe Aillet Stadium
Final · Sep 5Suggested side did not cover#88 matchup
VMIFCS
OV Win<0.01%3
Spread:VT -52.5vs.VT -54.5
1 Factor
VMI at Virginia Tech · Blacksburg, VA · Lane Stadium
Final · Sep 4Suggested side covered#89 matchup
North Carolina A&TFCS
OV Win2%10
Spread:GAST -27.5vs.GAST -28.5
1 Factor
North Carolina A&T at Georgia State · Atlanta, GA · Center Parc Stadium
Final · Sep 5Suggested side covered#90 matchup
HamptonFCS
OV Win<0.01%0
OV Win>99.9%62
Spread:MD -50vs.MD -45.5
1 Factor
Hampton at Maryland · College Park, MD · SECU Stadium
Final · Sep 5Suggested side did not cover#91 matchup
Mississippi Valley StateFCS
OV Win2%0
Spread:SAC -27.5vs.SAC -38.5
1 Factor
Mississippi Valley State at Sacramento State · Sacramento, CA · Hornet Stadium

OnVarsity Lines are matchup-specific model estimates that exclude the focal market line. How they're calculated →