Offense#129
-10.7vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play0.08 #115 FBSSuccess rate37.0% #121 FBS
Sun Belt · #133 of 138
UL Monroe
Implied Strength-20.1vs. FBS average · ±3.2
Record0–2through completed games
Bowl Eligibility6%reach six wins
Strength of Schedule107thof 138 FBS teams
Schedule lens
What matters next
The headline numbers are above. Here is where the season starts to take shape.
Next matchupvs. SE LouisianaWeek 3 · OV Line ULM -3.5 · 30% win chance →Toughest remaining test#93 Florida AtlanticWeek 4 · 21% site win chance · View matchup →
Team identity
Where the strength lives
Defense projects as the stronger unit by 1.3 rating points.
Defense#127
-9.4vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play allowed0.19 #90 FBSSuccess rate allowed40.7% #57 FBS
2025 PPA (predicted points added per play) and success rate. How this split works →
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Season outlook · 50,000 simulations
How UL Monroe's 2026 could unfold
The current projection is 3–9 (3.2 expected wins), with a <0.01% chance to reach the playoff. The distribution below shows how often each regular-season win total appeared across the schedule-aware simulations.
Range of outcomes
Projected win distribution
Most common and median 3 winsCentral 80% 1–5 winsBowl eligible 6.4%Winless 0.7%
Simulated (schedule-aware)Central 80% rangeMarket win total
Postseason path
2026 playoff outlook
<0.01%Make the 12-team field
Still outside the median outcome across the schedule-aware simulations.
How the field is reached<0.01% total
Auto-bid<0.01%
At-large<0.01%
Outside field>99.9%
What could move the outlook
Biggest questions
Unresolved does not mean negative. A point estimate appears only when the historical evidence supports one.
No major preseason uncertainty signals currently clear the display threshold for UL Monroe. We will update this view as matchup and in-season evidence develops.
Projection contextRoster, continuity, and market inputsView details
The market win total, returning production, coaching continuity, transfer talent, and recent NFL production help explain the evidence surrounding this projection.
Returning Production38.7%share of prior-year PPA returning for 2026
2026 Transfer Class53rdof 138 FBS teams by combined portal talent
Recent NFL Draft Production133rdof 138 FBS teams by NFL talent produced
Market win total3.6Consensus preseason line
Final · Sep 5Suggested side did not cover
Spread:MSST -27vs.MSST -28.5
1 FactorUL Monroe at Mississippi State · Starkville, MS · Davis Wade Stadium
Pregame evidence · 2022–25
UL Monroe through the lens
The OV Line is the aggregate-rating baseline. The market gap shows where the game-level consensus differed, while identified Factors show how much of that difference our research may explain. ATS records are descriptive context—not a claim that OV should outperform the market.
Market ATS33%4–8 against consensus
Average line gap2.9 pts58% inside 3 points · 7 of 12
Factor coverage25%3 of 12 games
Factor signals67% aligned2 of 3 individual observations · 0 neutral
Historical sample12 gamesmarket-covered games from 2022–25
Explanatory history
Factors present in UL Monroe games
| Factor | Games | Average estimate | Aligned with market | Research status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty | 2 | 3.4 pts toward UL Monroe | 50%1 of 2 directional cases | Supported · wider uncertainty |
| Rest Differential | 1 | 1.7 pts toward UL Monroe | 100%1 of 1 directional cases | Supported |
Underlying recordInspect all 12 historical gamesView games
| Season | Game | OV baseline | Market | Market gap | Identified adjustment | Remaining gap | Result | Market ATS | Factors |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 · W14 | at LouisianaAway | UL Monroe +12.5 | UL Monroe +11 | 1.6 pts toward UL Monroe | None identified | 1.6 pts toward UL Monroe | L 27–30 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W13 | at Texas StateAway | UL Monroe +18.5 | UL Monroe +20.5 | 2.2 pts toward opponents | None identified | 2.2 pts toward opponents | L 14–31 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W12 | vs. South AlabamaHome | UL Monroe +6 | UL Monroe +4 | 2.0 pts toward UL Monroe | None identified | 2.0 pts toward UL Monroe | L 14–26 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W10 | vs. Old DominionHome | UL Monroe +13.5 | UL Monroe +16.5 | 3.1 pts toward opponents | None identified | 3.1 pts toward opponents | L 6–31 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W9 | at Southern MissAway | UL Monroe +12.5 | UL Monroe +14 | 1.6 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.6 pts toward opponents | L 21–49 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W8 | vs. TroyHome | UL Monroe +3.5 | UL Monroe +4.5 | 0.9 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.9 pts toward opponents | L 14–37 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W7 | at Coastal CarolinaAway | UL Monroe +2.5 | UL Monroe -3 | 5.3 pts toward UL Monroe | None identified | 5.3 pts toward UL Monroe | L 8–23 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W6 | at NorthwesternAway | UL Monroe +17.5 | UL Monroe +12.5 | 5.2 pts toward UL Monroe | None identified | 5.2 pts toward UL Monroe | L 7–42 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W5 | vs. Arkansas StateHome | UL Monroe -2 | UL Monroe -1.5 | 0.7 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.7 pts toward opponents | W 28–16 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W4 | at UTEPAway | UL Monroe +10.5 | UL Monroe +5.5 | 5.2 pts toward UL Monroe | 1.7 pts toward UL Monroe | 3.5 pts toward UL Monroe | W 31–25 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W2 | at AlabamaAway | UL Monroe +29.5 | UL Monroe +34.5 | 4.8 pts toward opponents | 3.9 pts toward UL Monroe | 8.7 pts toward opponents | L 0–73 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W1 | vs. Saint FrancisHome | UL Monroe -28 | UL Monroe -31 | 2.6 pts toward UL Monroe | 2.8 pts toward UL Monroe | 0.3 pts toward opponents | W 29–0 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
Sample: 12 market-covered games from 2022–25. Identified adjustments are rough sums of the Factors shown and are not a replacement betting line. Remaining gap is market consensus minus the OV baseline and identified adjustments. A push means the team’s scoring margin exactly matched the market line.