UL Monroe at Mississippi State

Week 1 · Sep 5Davis Wade Stadium · Starkville, MS
UL Monroe0–2-20.1 vs. avg · #133
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Mississippi State2–0+8.8 vs. avg · #33

Matchup View

Pregame view lockedThis preserves what the matchup looked like before kickoff.
Locked
Opening LineMississippi State -27Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
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Current Market ConsensusMississippi State -28.52-book consensus · updated Aug 26
Why the market may differ1 FactorOnVarsity Opening LineMississippi State -27Factor Adjustments~2 pts toward UL MonroeOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested LineMississippi State -25Unexplained Gap~3.5 pts toward Mississippi StateExplore similar gaps OnVarsity Opening LineMississippi State -27Factor adjustment (Open)~2 pts toward UL MonroeOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Open)Mississippi State -25Opening Market ConsensusMississippi State -28.5Unexplained at open~3.5 pts toward Mississippi StateSince openFactor adjustment (In-Week)≈ Net zeroOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Current)Mississippi State -25Current Market ConsensusMississippi State -28.5Unexplained gap~3.5 pts toward Mississippi StateExplore similar gaps Lopsided game-flow uncertainty~2 pts toward UL MonroeAt open ~2 pts toward UL MonroeIn-week ~0.5 pts toward Mississippi State

Lopsided game-flow uncertainty

~2 pts toward UL MonroeAt open ~2 pts toward UL MonroeIn-week ~0.5 pts toward Mississippi State
Estimate is uncertain

Comparable games put Mississippi State's chance of winning by at least 28 at about 46%. Historically, the market shaded about 1.8 points toward UL Monroe (average-estimate range 1.0–2.9), but actual results were too noisy to treat that as a dependable OV Line adjustment.

See the full study
Other conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate

These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.

Lay it with a big favorite Developing estimate

Mississippi State is favored by 28.5 points in the current market consensus.

Studied in 450 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Look-ahead game Contradictory evidence

Mississippi State faces materially stronger Minnesota in its next scheduled game.

Studied in 401 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Trap game Inconclusive

Mississippi State is favored by at least seven points before facing materially stronger Minnesota.

Studied in 186 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Take the big underdog Contradictory evidence

UL Monroe is a 28.5-point underdog in the current market consensus.

Studied in 450 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study
Completed gameWhat happened?UL Monroe 13 · Mississippi State 62
Pregame OV Line
Mississippi State -27
Final recorded market
Mississippi State -28.5
OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
Mississippi State -25
Actual margin
Mississippi State by 49

This preserves the pregame comparison beside the result. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.

Pregame Win Probability
UL Monroe 2.4%Mississippi State 97.6%

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Compare Teams

UL MonroeVSMississippi State

Model View

Overall Rating-20.1 · #133+8.8 · #33
Offense Rating-10.7+4.9
Defense Rating-9.4+3.8

2025 Performance

Offense PPA/Play0.080.15
Offense Success Rate37.0%42.0%
Defense PPA/Play Allowed0.190.20
Defense Success Rate Allowed40.7%43.3%

2026 Outlook

Market Win Total3.64.6
Playoff Odds<0.01%1.5%
Strength of Schedule Rank107th8th