Offense#31
+4.9vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play0.15 #81 FBSSuccess rate42.0% #74 FBS
SEC · #33 of 138
Mississippi State
Implied Strength+8.8vs. FBS average · ±3.3
Record2–0through completed games
Bowl Eligibility56%reach six wins
Strength of Schedule8thof 138 FBS teams
Schedule lens
What matters next
The headline numbers are above. Here is where the season starts to take shape.
Next matchupat South CarolinaWeek 3 · OV Line MSST +6.5 · 30% win chance →Toughest remaining test#3 TexasWeek 9 · 5% site win chance · View matchup →
Team identity
Where the strength lives
Offense projects as the stronger unit by 1.1 rating points.
Defense#43
+3.8vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play allowed0.20 #107 FBSSuccess rate allowed43.3% #94 FBS
2025 PPA (predicted points added per play) and success rate. How this split works →
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Season outlook · 50,000 simulations
How Mississippi State's 2026 could unfold
The current projection is 6–6 (5.8 expected wins), with a 2% chance to reach the playoff. The distribution below shows how often each regular-season win total appeared across the schedule-aware simulations.
Range of outcomes
Projected win distribution
Most common and median 6 winsCentral 80% 4–8 winsBowl eligible 55.5%
Simulated (schedule-aware)Central 80% rangeMarket win total
Postseason path
2026 playoff outlook
1.5%Make the 12-team field
Still outside the median outcome across the schedule-aware simulations.
How the field is reached1.5% total
Auto-bid<0.01%
At-large1.5%
Outside field98.5%
What could move the outlook
Biggest questions
Unresolved does not mean negative. A point estimate appears only when the historical evidence supports one.
No major preseason uncertainty signals currently clear the display threshold for Mississippi State. We will update this view as matchup and in-season evidence develops.
Projection contextRoster, continuity, and market inputsView details
The market win total, returning production, coaching continuity, transfer talent, and recent NFL production help explain the evidence surrounding this projection.
Returning Production33.9%share of prior-year PPA returning for 2026
2026 Transfer Class27thof 138 FBS teams by combined portal talent
Recent NFL Draft Production40thof 138 FBS teams by NFL talent produced
Market win total4.6Consensus preseason line
Final · Sep 5Suggested side did not cover
Spread:MSST -27vs.MSST -28.5
1 FactorUL Monroe at Mississippi State · Starkville, MS · Davis Wade Stadium
11:00 PM · Oct 2
Alabama at Mississippi State · Starkville, MS · Davis Wade Stadium — EARLY: Noon - 1pm ET start
11:00 PM · Oct 16
Mississippi State at LSU · Baton Rouge, LA · Tiger Stadium (LA) — EARLY: Noon - 1pm ET start
11:00 PM · Oct 23
Oklahoma at Mississippi State · Starkville, MS · Davis Wade Stadium — FLEX: 3:30 - 4:30pm OR 6 - 8pm ET start
11:00 PM · Oct 30
Mississippi State at Texas · Austin, TX · DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium — NIGHT: 6 - 8pm ET start
11:00 PM · Nov 6
Vanderbilt at Mississippi State · Starkville, MS · Davis Wade Stadium — FLEX: 3:30 - 4:30pm OR 6 - 8pm ET start
11:00 PM · Nov 13
Auburn at Mississippi State · Starkville, MS · Davis Wade Stadium — EARLY: Noon - 1pm ET start
Pregame evidence · 2022–25
Mississippi State through the lens
The OV Line is the aggregate-rating baseline. The market gap shows where the game-level consensus differed, while identified Factors show how much of that difference our research may explain. ATS records are descriptive context—not a claim that OV should outperform the market.
Market ATS53%23–20 against consensus
Average line gap2.6 pts63% inside 3 points · 27 of 43
Factor coverage37%16 of 43 games
Factor signals65% aligned11 of 17 individual observations · 1 neutral
Historical sample43 gamesmarket-covered games from 2022–25
Explanatory history
Factors present in Mississippi State games
| Factor | Games | Average estimate | Aligned with market | Research status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty | 9 | 1.8 pts toward Mississippi State | 78%7 of 9 directional cases | Supported · wider uncertainty |
| Rest Differential | 7 | 0.5 pts toward Mississippi State | 57%4 of 7 directional cases | Supported |
| Season Opener with a New Head Coach | 1 | No net direction | —0 of 0 directional cases | No separate adjustment |
| Season-Opening Quarterback Experience | 1 | 0.9 pts toward opponents | 0%0 of 1 directional cases | Research candidate |
Underlying recordInspect all 43 historical gamesView games
| Season | Game | OV baseline | Market | Market gap | Identified adjustment | Remaining gap | Result | Market ATS | Factors |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 · W14 | vs. Ole MissHome | Mississippi State +9.5 | Mississippi State +7.5 | 2.1 pts toward Mississippi State | None identified | 2.1 pts toward Mississippi State | L 19–38 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W12 | at MissouriAway | Mississippi State +9.5 | Mississippi State +7.5 | 2.0 pts toward Mississippi State | None identified | 2.0 pts toward Mississippi State | L 27–49 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W11 | vs. GeorgiaHome | Mississippi State +10.5 | Mississippi State +9.5 | 0.8 pts toward Mississippi State | None identified | 0.8 pts toward Mississippi State | L 21–41 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W10 | at ArkansasAway | Mississippi State +7 | Mississippi State +5.5 | 1.7 pts toward Mississippi State | None identified | 1.7 pts toward Mississippi State | W 38–35 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W9 | vs. TexasHome | Mississippi State +12 | Mississippi State +8.5 | 3.3 pts toward Mississippi State | None identified | 3.3 pts toward Mississippi State | L 38–45 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W8 | at FloridaAway | Mississippi State +12 | Mississippi State +9.5 | 2.5 pts toward Mississippi State | 1.8 pts toward Mississippi State | 0.7 pts toward Mississippi State | L 21–23 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W6 | at Texas A&MAway | Mississippi State +14.5 | Mississippi State +17.5 | 3.0 pts toward opponents | None identified | 3.0 pts toward opponents | L 9–31 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W5 | vs. TennesseeHome | Mississippi State +7.5 | Mississippi State +7.5 | 0.1 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.1 pts toward opponents | L 34–41 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W4 | vs. Northern IllinoisHome | Mississippi State -28.5 | Mississippi State -24 | 4.5 pts toward opponents | 5.5 pts toward opponents | 1.0 pts toward Mississippi State | W 38–10 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow UncertaintyRest Differential |
| 2025 · W3 | vs. Alcorn StateHome | Mississippi State -41 | Mississippi State -43 | 1.5 pts toward Mississippi State | 0.4 pts toward Mississippi State | 1.1 pts toward Mississippi State | W 63–0 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W2 | vs. Arizona StateHome | Mississippi State +0.5 | Mississippi State +6 | 5.1 pts toward opponents | None identified | 5.1 pts toward opponents | W 24–20 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W1 | at Southern MissAway | Mississippi State -9.5 | Mississippi State -14.5 | 4.9 pts toward Mississippi State | No net direction | 4.9 pts toward Mississippi State | W 34–17 | W | Season Opener with a New Head Coach |
| 2024 · W14 | at Ole MissAway | Mississippi State +31 | Mississippi State +26 | 5.2 pts toward Mississippi State | 3.3 pts toward Mississippi State | 1.9 pts toward Mississippi State | L 14–26 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2024 · W13 | vs. MissouriHome | Mississippi State +10.5 | Mississippi State +9.5 | 1.0 pts toward Mississippi State | 1.1 pts toward Mississippi State | 0.1 pts toward opponents | L 20–39 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2024 · W11 | at TennesseeAway | Mississippi State +29 | Mississippi State +26.5 | 2.4 pts toward Mississippi State | 2.9 pts toward Mississippi State | 0.5 pts toward opponents | L 14–33 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2024 · W9 | vs. ArkansasHome | Mississippi State +8 | Mississippi State +7.5 | 0.5 pts toward Mississippi State | None identified | 0.5 pts toward Mississippi State | L 25–58 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W8 | vs. Texas A&MHome | Mississippi State +14 | Mississippi State +21 | 6.8 pts toward opponents | 1.8 pts toward opponents | 5.0 pts toward opponents | L 24–34 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2024 · W7 | at GeorgiaAway | Mississippi State +34 | Mississippi State +34 | 0.2 pts toward opponents | 5.4 pts toward Mississippi State | 5.6 pts toward opponents | L 31–41 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow UncertaintyRest Differential |
| 2024 · W5 | at TexasAway | Mississippi State +36 | Mississippi State +37 | 0.8 pts toward opponents | 4.0 pts toward Mississippi State | 4.8 pts toward opponents | L 13–35 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2024 · W4 | vs. FloridaHome | Mississippi State +5 | Mississippi State +6.5 | 1.7 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.7 pts toward opponents | L 28–45 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W2 | at Arizona StateAway | Mississippi State +5.5 | Mississippi State +6.5 | 0.8 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.8 pts toward opponents | L 23–30 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W1 | vs. Eastern KentuckyHome | Mississippi State -24 | Mississippi State -26.5 | 2.6 pts toward Mississippi State | 2.5 pts toward Mississippi State | 0.1 pts toward Mississippi State | W 56–7 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2023 · W13 | vs. Ole MissHome | Mississippi State +13.5 | Mississippi State +10.5 | 3.0 pts toward Mississippi State | None identified | 3.0 pts toward Mississippi State | L 7–17 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W11 | at Texas A&MAway | Mississippi State +16 | Mississippi State +16.5 | 0.3 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.3 pts toward opponents | L 10–51 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W10 | vs. KentuckyHome | Mississippi State +1 | Mississippi State +5.5 | 4.6 pts toward opponents | None identified | 4.6 pts toward opponents | L 3–24 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W9 | at AuburnAway | Mississippi State +7.5 | Mississippi State +6.5 | 0.9 pts toward Mississippi State | None identified | 0.9 pts toward Mississippi State | L 13–27 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W8 | at ArkansasAway | Mississippi State +5.5 | Mississippi State +7 | 1.3 pts toward opponents | 1.8 pts toward Mississippi State | 3.0 pts toward opponents | W 7–3 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2023 · W5 | vs. AlabamaHome | Mississippi State +13.5 | Mississippi State +14.5 | 0.9 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.9 pts toward opponents | L 17–40 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W4 | at South CarolinaAway | Mississippi State 0 | Mississippi State +6 | 5.8 pts toward opponents | None identified | 5.8 pts toward opponents | L 30–37 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W3 | vs. LSUHome | Mississippi State +8 | Mississippi State +9.5 | 1.4 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.4 pts toward opponents | L 14–41 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W2 | vs. ArizonaHome | Mississippi State -14 | Mississippi State -9 | 5.2 pts toward opponents | None identified | 5.2 pts toward opponents | W 31–24 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W1 | vs. SE LouisianaHome | Mississippi State -28.5 | Mississippi State -31.5 | 3.2 pts toward Mississippi State | 2.5 pts toward Mississippi State | 0.8 pts toward Mississippi State | W 48–7 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2022 · W13 | at Ole MissAway | Mississippi State +2.5 | Mississippi State +2.5 | 0.2 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.2 pts toward opponents | W 24–22 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W12 | vs. East Tennessee StateHome | Mississippi State -31.5 | Mississippi State -39 | 7.5 pts toward Mississippi State | 0.6 pts toward Mississippi State | 6.9 pts toward Mississippi State | W 56–7 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2022 · W11 | vs. GeorgiaHome | Mississippi State +17 | Mississippi State +16.5 | 0.7 pts toward Mississippi State | None identified | 0.7 pts toward Mississippi State | L 19–45 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W10 | vs. AuburnHome | Mississippi State -14 | Mississippi State -12.5 | 1.5 pts toward opponents | 1.0 pts toward Mississippi State | 2.5 pts toward opponents | W 39–33 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2022 · W8 | at AlabamaAway | Mississippi State +19.5 | Mississippi State +21.5 | 1.7 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.7 pts toward opponents | L 6–30 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W7 | at KentuckyAway | Mississippi State -6.5 | Mississippi State -3.5 | 2.8 pts toward opponents | None identified | 2.8 pts toward opponents | L 17–27 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W6 | vs. ArkansasHome | Mississippi State -5 | Mississippi State -8.5 | 3.4 pts toward Mississippi State | None identified | 3.4 pts toward Mississippi State | W 40–17 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W5 | vs. Texas A&MHome | Mississippi State -3 | Mississippi State -4 | 0.9 pts toward Mississippi State | None identified | 0.9 pts toward Mississippi State | W 42–24 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W3 | at LSUAway | Mississippi State -1 | Mississippi State -3 | 2.1 pts toward Mississippi State | None identified | 2.1 pts toward Mississippi State | L 16–31 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W2 | at ArizonaAway | Mississippi State -4 | Mississippi State -12.5 | 8.3 pts toward Mississippi State | None identified | 8.3 pts toward Mississippi State | W 39–17 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W1 | vs. MemphisHome | Mississippi State -13.5 | Mississippi State -17 | 3.5 pts toward Mississippi State | 0.9 pts toward opponents | 4.3 pts toward Mississippi State | W 49–23 | W | Season-Opening Quarterback Experience |
Sample: 43 market-covered games from 2022–25. Identified adjustments are rough sums of the Factors shown and are not a replacement betting line. Remaining gap is market consensus minus the OV baseline and identified adjustments. A push means the team’s scoring margin exactly matched the market line.