Offense#16
+8.8vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play0.21 #38 FBSSuccess rate43.3% #56 FBS
SEC · #12 of 138
Alabama
Implied Strength+19.9vs. FBS average · ±3.4
Record2–0through completed games
Playoff Odds41%make the 12-team field
Conference Title8%win SEC
Strength of Schedule10thof 138 FBS teams
Schedule lens
What matters next
The headline numbers are above. Here is where the season starts to take shape.
Next matchupvs. Florida StateWeek 3 · OV Line ALA -15.5 · 89% win chance →Toughest remaining test#6 GeorgiaWeek 6 · 40% site win chance · View matchup →
Team identity
Where the strength lives
Defense projects as the stronger unit by 2.2 rating points.
Defense#11
+11.0vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play allowed0.07 #28 FBSSuccess rate allowed37.4% #22 FBS
2025 PPA (predicted points added per play) and success rate. How this split works →
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Season outlook · 50,000 simulations
How Alabama's 2026 could unfold
The current projection is 9–3 (8.8 expected wins), with a 41% chance to reach the playoff. The distribution below shows how often each regular-season win total appeared across the schedule-aware simulations.
Range of outcomes
Projected win distribution
Most common and median 9 winsCentral 80% 7–11 winsBowl eligible 98.1%Undefeated 2.6%
Simulated (schedule-aware)Central 80% rangeMarket win total
Postseason path
2026 playoff outlook
41.0%Make the 12-team field
Still outside the median outcome across the schedule-aware simulations.
How the field is reached41.0% total
Auto-bid8.1%
At-large32.9%
Outside field59.0%
Conference title8.1%
What could move the outlook
Biggest questions
Unresolved does not mean negative. A point estimate appears only when the historical evidence supports one.
Keelon Russell enters with limited established experience
Keelon Russell enters the season with only 15 career passing attempts. That uncertainty can matter more to an individual spread than to an aggregate season forecast.
17 comparable openers averaged about 0.9 points away from the low-experience quarterback's team. 1 upcoming matchup carries the Factor.Replacing a high level of NFL-caliber production
Alabama ranks 3rd of 138 teams in recent NFL draft production. The open question is how quickly the next group reproduces it.
Draft attrition is already included in the baseline. Broad roster reconstruction did not earn a separate historical point adjustment.Projection contextRoster, continuity, and market inputsView details
The market win total, returning production, coaching continuity, transfer talent, and recent NFL production help explain the evidence surrounding this projection.
Returning Production26.4%share of prior-year PPA returning for 2026
2026 Transfer Class65thof 138 FBS teams by combined portal talent
Recent NFL Draft Production3rdof 138 FBS teams by NFL talent producedHeavy draft production
Market win total8.6Consensus preseason line
Final · Sep 5Suggested side did not cover
East Carolina at Alabama · Tuscaloosa, AL · Bryant-Denny Stadium
11:00 PM · Oct 2
Alabama at Mississippi State · Starkville, MS · Davis Wade Stadium — EARLY: Noon - 1pm ET start
11:00 PM · Oct 9
Georgia at Alabama · Tuscaloosa, AL · Bryant-Denny Stadium — NIGHT: 6 - 8pm ET start
12:00 AM · Oct 17
Alabama at Tennessee · Knoxville, TN · Neyland Stadium — FLEX: 3:30 - 4:30pm OR 6 - 8pm ET start
11:00 PM · Oct 23
Texas A&M at Alabama · Tuscaloosa, AL · Bryant-Denny Stadium — FLEX: 3:30 - 4:30pm OR 6 - 8pm ET start
11:00 PM · Nov 6
Alabama at LSU · Baton Rouge, LA · Tiger Stadium (LA) — FLEX: 3:30 - 4:30pm OR 6 - 8pm ET start
11:00 PM · Nov 13
Alabama at Vanderbilt · Nashville, TN · FirstBank Stadium — EARLY: Noon - 1pm ET start
Pregame evidence · 2022–25
Alabama through the lens
The OV Line is the aggregate-rating baseline. The market gap shows where the game-level consensus differed, while identified Factors show how much of that difference our research may explain. ATS records are descriptive context—not a claim that OV should outperform the market.
Market ATS59%24–17–3 against consensus
Average line gap3.6 pts61% inside 3 points · 27 of 44
Factor coverage43%19 of 44 games
Factor signals85% aligned17 of 20 individual observations · 0 neutral
Historical sample44 gamesmarket-covered games from 2022–25
Explanatory history
Factors present in Alabama games
| Factor | Games | Average estimate | Aligned with market | Research status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty | 13 | 3.7 pts toward opponents | 85%11 of 13 directional cases | Supported · wider uncertainty |
| Rest Differential | 5 | 1.2 pts toward opponents | 80%4 of 5 directional cases | Supported |
| Neutral-Site Same-State Context | 2 | 1.3 pts toward opponents | 100%2 of 2 directional cases | Supported · wider uncertainty |
Underlying recordInspect all 44 historical gamesView games
| Season | Game | OV baseline | Market | Market gap | Identified adjustment | Remaining gap | Result | Market ATS | Factors |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 · W15 | vs. GeorgiaNeutral | Alabama -2 | Alabama +1.5 | 3.6 pts toward opponents | 1.5 pts toward opponents | 2.1 pts toward opponents | L 7–28 | L | Neutral-Site Same-State Context |
| 2025 · W14 | at AuburnAway | Alabama -7 | Alabama -7 | 0.2 pts toward Alabama | None identified | 0.2 pts toward Alabama | W 27–20 | P | None identified |
| 2025 · W13 | vs. Eastern IllinoisHome | Alabama -59.5 | Alabama -50.5 | 8.9 pts toward opponents | 7.6 pts toward opponents | 1.3 pts toward opponents | W 56–0 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W12 | vs. OklahomaHome | Alabama -8.5 | Alabama -6.5 | 1.8 pts toward opponents | 1.8 pts toward opponents | No net direction | L 21–23 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W11 | vs. LSUHome | Alabama -11 | Alabama -10 | 1.2 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.2 pts toward opponents | W 20–9 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W9 | at South CarolinaAway | Alabama -10 | Alabama -11.5 | 1.3 pts toward Alabama | None identified | 1.3 pts toward Alabama | W 29–22 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W8 | vs. TennesseeHome | Alabama -9 | Alabama -8.5 | 0.7 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.7 pts toward opponents | W 37–20 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W7 | at MissouriAway | Alabama -4 | Alabama -3 | 1.1 pts toward opponents | 1.1 pts toward opponents | No net direction | W 27–24 | P | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W6 | vs. VanderbiltHome | Alabama -17.5 | Alabama -13.5 | 3.9 pts toward opponents | None identified | 3.9 pts toward opponents | W 30–14 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W5 | at GeorgiaAway | Alabama +1.5 | Alabama +2.5 | 1.1 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.1 pts toward opponents | W 24–21 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W3 | vs. WisconsinHome | Alabama -27.5 | Alabama -18.5 | 8.8 pts toward opponents | 3.5 pts toward opponents | 5.3 pts toward opponents | W 38–14 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W2 | vs. UL MonroeHome | Alabama -29.5 | Alabama -34.5 | 4.8 pts toward Alabama | 3.9 pts toward opponents | 8.7 pts toward Alabama | W 73–0 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W1 | at Florida StateAway | Alabama -12 | Alabama -13.5 | 1.6 pts toward Alabama | None identified | 1.6 pts toward Alabama | L 17–31 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W14 | vs. AuburnHome | Alabama -19.5 | Alabama -11 | 8.7 pts toward opponents | None identified | 8.7 pts toward opponents | W 28–14 | W | None identified |
| 2024 · W13 | at OklahomaAway | Alabama -14 | Alabama -14 | 0.2 pts toward Alabama | 1.0 pts toward opponents | 1.3 pts toward Alabama | L 3–24 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2024 · W12 | vs. MercerHome | Alabama -52.5 | Alabama -42.5 | 10.3 pts toward opponents | 4.3 pts toward opponents | 6.0 pts toward opponents | W 52–7 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2024 · W11 | at LSUAway | Alabama -7.5 | Alabama -2.5 | 4.9 pts toward opponents | None identified | 4.9 pts toward opponents | W 42–13 | W | None identified |
| 2024 · W9 | vs. MissouriHome | Alabama -15 | Alabama -16 | 0.8 pts toward Alabama | None identified | 0.8 pts toward Alabama | W 34–0 | W | None identified |
| 2024 · W8 | at TennesseeAway | Alabama -1.5 | Alabama -3.5 | 2.1 pts toward Alabama | None identified | 2.1 pts toward Alabama | L 17–24 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W7 | vs. South CarolinaHome | Alabama -19 | Alabama -21 | 2.1 pts toward Alabama | None identified | 2.1 pts toward Alabama | W 27–25 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W6 | at VanderbiltAway | Alabama -24.5 | Alabama -23 | 1.3 pts toward opponents | 3.6 pts toward opponents | 2.2 pts toward Alabama | L 35–40 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow UncertaintyRest Differential |
| 2024 · W5 | vs. GeorgiaHome | Alabama -3 | Alabama +2 | 4.9 pts toward opponents | None identified | 4.9 pts toward opponents | W 41–34 | W | None identified |
| 2024 · W3 | at WisconsinAway | Alabama -28 | Alabama -15.5 | 12.6 pts toward opponents | 2.8 pts toward opponents | 9.8 pts toward opponents | W 42–10 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2023 · W14 | vs. GeorgiaNeutral | Alabama +2.5 | Alabama +5 | 2.6 pts toward opponents | 1.0 pts toward opponents | 1.5 pts toward opponents | W 27–24 | W | Neutral-Site Same-State Context |
| 2023 · W13 | at AuburnAway | Alabama -14.5 | Alabama -14.5 | 0.2 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.2 pts toward opponents | W 27–24 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W12 | vs. ChattanoogaHome | Alabama -44.5 | Alabama -44.5 | 0.1 pts toward Alabama | 1.3 pts toward opponents | 1.4 pts toward Alabama | W 66–10 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2023 · W11 | at KentuckyAway | Alabama -11.5 | Alabama -10.5 | 0.9 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.9 pts toward opponents | W 49–21 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W10 | vs. LSUHome | Alabama -0.5 | Alabama -3 | 2.7 pts toward Alabama | None identified | 2.7 pts toward Alabama | W 42–28 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W8 | vs. TennesseeHome | Alabama -7 | Alabama -8.5 | 1.4 pts toward Alabama | None identified | 1.4 pts toward Alabama | W 34–20 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W7 | vs. ArkansasHome | Alabama -18 | Alabama -19.5 | 1.6 pts toward Alabama | None identified | 1.6 pts toward Alabama | W 24–21 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W6 | at Texas A&MAway | Alabama -2 | Alabama -2.5 | 0.4 pts toward Alabama | None identified | 0.4 pts toward Alabama | W 26–20 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W5 | at Mississippi StateAway | Alabama -13.5 | Alabama -14.5 | 0.9 pts toward Alabama | None identified | 0.9 pts toward Alabama | W 40–17 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W4 | vs. Ole MissHome | Alabama +0.5 | Alabama -7 | 7.4 pts toward Alabama | None identified | 7.4 pts toward Alabama | W 24–10 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W2 | vs. TexasHome | Alabama -19 | Alabama -7 | 12.0 pts toward opponents | None identified | 12.0 pts toward opponents | L 24–34 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W13 | vs. AuburnHome | Alabama -27.5 | Alabama -22 | 5.5 pts toward opponents | 3.1 pts toward opponents | 2.4 pts toward opponents | W 49–27 | P | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2022 · W12 | vs. Austin PeayHome | Alabama -51.5 | Alabama -45 | 6.8 pts toward opponents | 4.5 pts toward opponents | 2.3 pts toward opponents | W 34–0 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2022 · W11 | at Ole MissAway | Alabama -16 | Alabama -11 | 4.8 pts toward opponents | 1.1 pts toward opponents | 3.7 pts toward opponents | W 30–24 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2022 · W10 | at LSUAway | Alabama -17.5 | Alabama -13.5 | 4.0 pts toward opponents | None identified | 4.0 pts toward opponents | L 31–32 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W8 | vs. Mississippi StateHome | Alabama -19.5 | Alabama -21.5 | 1.7 pts toward Alabama | None identified | 1.7 pts toward Alabama | W 30–6 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W7 | at TennesseeAway | Alabama -11.5 | Alabama -9 | 2.6 pts toward opponents | None identified | 2.6 pts toward opponents | L 49–52 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W6 | vs. Texas A&MHome | Alabama -26 | Alabama -24 | 1.9 pts toward opponents | 2.9 pts toward opponents | 1.0 pts toward Alabama | W 24–20 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2022 · W5 | at ArkansasAway | Alabama -24 | Alabama -17 | 6.9 pts toward opponents | 2.7 pts toward opponents | 4.2 pts toward opponents | W 49–26 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2022 · W4 | vs. VanderbiltHome | Alabama -43 | Alabama -40.5 | 2.5 pts toward opponents | 5.9 pts toward opponents | 3.4 pts toward Alabama | W 55–3 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2022 · W2 | at TexasAway | Alabama -23.5 | Alabama -21.5 | 2.3 pts toward opponents | 2.7 pts toward opponents | 0.4 pts toward Alabama | W 20–19 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
Sample: 44 market-covered games from 2022–25. Identified adjustments are rough sums of the Factors shown and are not a replacement betting line. Remaining gap is market consensus minus the OV baseline and identified adjustments. A push means the team’s scoring margin exactly matched the market line.