Straight-up hot streak Developing estimate
Alabama has won at least three consecutive lined games.
Studied in 1,465 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studySouth Carolina at Alabama
Week 4 · Sep 26Bryant-Denny Stadium · Tuscaloosa, AL
Matchup View
Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked Opening Line
Alabama -11.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Alabama -11.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
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Kickoff-adjacent Market ConsensusAlabama -12.511-book consensus · observed Sep 26, 6:45 PM EDT
Alabama -12.511-book consensus · observed Sep 26, 6:45 PM EDTWhy the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Unexplained Gap~1 pt toward AlabamaExplore similar gapsOther conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Public bias toward greatness Developing estimate
Alabama begins the season in the top quartile of OV Ratings.
Studied in 1,692 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyBounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence
South Carolina enters after a loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyBounce-back after an upset loss Contradictory evidence
South Carolina was favored but lost its previous lined game outright.
Studied in 1,202 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyResolve after a close loss Contradictory evidence
South Carolina enters after a one-score loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,582 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyPublic bias toward greatness Developing estimate
South Carolina begins the season in the top quartile of OV Ratings.
Studied in 1,692 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge game Developing estimate
South Carolina lost the most recent meeting with Alabama.
Studied in 3,848 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyCompleted gameWhat happened?South Carolina 18 · Alabama 49
- Pregame OV Line
- Alabama -11.5
- Kickoff-adjacent Market Consensus
- Alabama -12.5
- OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
- No quantified Factors
- Actual margin
- Alabama by 31
Observed 0h 14m before kickoff. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.
Opening LineAlabama -11.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Alabama -11.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusAlabama -12Earliest observed 10-book consensus
Alabama -12Earliest observed 10-book consensusWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Pregame Win Probability
South Carolina 18.1%Alabama 81.9%
Make Your Picks
Open until scheduled kickoffWho will win this game?
Straight-up winner
Who will cover the spread?
Market consensus · Alabama -12.5
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