research
Every Factor and potentially relevant condition we study belongs here—including findings that do not support an adjustment. Inspect the evidence, understand what is already accounted for, and decide what matters.
See what happened in games with a similar difference between the OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line and Final Recorded Market Consensus.
Explore historical gaps42 studies shown
The combined Factor improved held-out final-recorded market-gap accuracy in every tested season once both teams had played at least five games. A smaller relationship was already visible at the opener, and paired-provider movement provided modest additional support.
Havoc had a modest standalone relationship with the market gap, but it added no useful information after opponent-adjusted PPA and success rate were included.
Continuous distance did not improve opening-market, final-recorded-market, or opening-to-final movement accuracy. Small result-side changes were inconsistent and not useful as a directional adjustment.
Rest was the strongest market signal in the broader home, travel, and game-setting bundle. The market averaged 0.65 points toward the more-rested team at opening and 0.99 points by the kickoff-adjacent observation. Actual results and ATS records were much less persuasive.
The opening market averaged about one point toward the team whose home state matched the neutral venue. The kickoff estimate pointed the same way, but was less stable across seasons. Actual results and the ATS record are interesting, not conclusive.
The individual historical comparison shows the market shading toward the underdog in large FBS-FBS mismatches. But once the improved OV foundation and overlapping context are tested out of sample, a game-flow adjustment does not improve the opening gap or actual-result prediction.
Sometimes, but not yet with a stable generic number. Inferred FBS-FBS starters with fewer than 50 career attempts saw the opening market shade 1.15 points away on average, while broader room uncertainty averaged 0.27 points. Both estimates have wide intervals, vary sharply by season, and do not produce a dependable ATS edge.
Automated experience measures add little by themselves. In manually reviewed injury, benching, and ambiguity cases, the audited opening market averages 0.60 points away from the affected team and the selected kickoff cohort averages 1.48 points away. The cases were chosen for review and are not a random population sample.
Not in any dependable way. Across 69 games with an established opening and kickoff-adjacent line, the market was nearly centered on the OV Line at both snapshots. Results and ATS records also fail to establish a reliable side.
Every team, venue, and night variant worsened pooled held-out prediction for opening-market, final-recorded-market, and result targets. Partial pooling pulled the most tempting venue-night estimates strongly toward zero.
Once the audited game-flow baseline is removed, portal volume, portal talent, broad reconstruction, and coach/QB interactions do not improve held-season opening, movement, or result prediction. A small kickoff change does not survive as a stable general rule.
Coach/QB continuity alone does not improve the audited baseline. In the 29 games with both established-opening and kickoff observations, stronger stable programs are shaded about 1.6 points at open and remain shaded at kickoff. There is no dependable additional movement or ATS improvement.
Yes, especially when a substantial favorite loses outright. The signal remains after removing the opener from the season accounting, but becomes much smaller after the normal Week 1 OV Rating update. That makes a bad opener useful evidence—not permission to punish the team twice.
Only three modern rating-surge cases qualify. They lean toward the FBS team at opening, but kickoff prediction worsens when the rule is added and the paired movement sample contains no surge cases.
The remaining signed effect changed by season and was already absorbed by game-flow modeling. FBS-FCS results were more dispersed, while reclassification coverage was too thin for a coefficient.
We translated “Cold against-the-spread trend” into a fixed pregame condition and evaluated separate opening, opening-to-kickoff, kickoff, OV, and actual-result outcomes.
We translated “Hot against-the-spread trend” into a fixed pregame condition and evaluated separate opening, opening-to-kickoff, kickoff, OV, and actual-result outcomes.
We translated “Bounce-back after a bad loss” into a fixed pregame condition and evaluated separate opening, opening-to-kickoff, kickoff, OV, and actual-result outcomes.
We translated “Bounce-back after a loss” into a fixed pregame condition and evaluated separate opening, opening-to-kickoff, kickoff, OV, and actual-result outcomes.
We translated “Bounce-back after an upset loss” into a fixed pregame condition and evaluated separate opening, opening-to-kickoff, kickoff, OV, and actual-result outcomes.
We translated “Resolve after a close loss” into a fixed pregame condition and evaluated separate opening, opening-to-kickoff, kickoff, OV, and actual-result outcomes.
We translated “Close-win regression” into a fixed pregame condition and evaluated separate opening, opening-to-kickoff, kickoff, OV, and actual-result outcomes.
We translated “Defense travels” into a fixed pregame condition and evaluated separate opening, opening-to-kickoff, kickoff, OV, and actual-result outcomes.
We translated “Take the big underdog” into a fixed pregame condition and evaluated separate opening, opening-to-kickoff, kickoff, OV, and actual-result outcomes.
We translated “Lay it with a big favorite” into a fixed pregame condition and evaluated separate opening, opening-to-kickoff, kickoff, OV, and actual-result outcomes.
We translated “Favorite off a loss” into a fixed pregame condition and evaluated separate opening, opening-to-kickoff, kickoff, OV, and actual-result outcomes.
We translated “High-scoring offense tax” into a fixed pregame condition and evaluated separate opening, opening-to-kickoff, kickoff, OV, and actual-result outcomes.
We translated “Public bias toward greatness” into a fixed pregame condition and evaluated separate opening, opening-to-kickoff, kickoff, OV, and actual-result outcomes.
We translated “High-total favorite” into a fixed pregame condition and evaluated separate opening, opening-to-kickoff, kickoff, OV, and actual-result outcomes.
We translated “Home-underdog value” into a fixed pregame condition and evaluated separate opening, opening-to-kickoff, kickoff, OV, and actual-result outcomes.
We translated “Letdown after a blowout win” into a fixed pregame condition and evaluated separate opening, opening-to-kickoff, kickoff, OV, and actual-result outcomes.
We translated “Letdown after an upset win” into a fixed pregame condition and evaluated separate opening, opening-to-kickoff, kickoff, OV, and actual-result outcomes.
We translated “Look-ahead game” into a fixed pregame condition and evaluated separate opening, opening-to-kickoff, kickoff, OV, and actual-result outcomes.
We translated “Momentum after a blowout win” into a fixed pregame condition and evaluated separate opening, opening-to-kickoff, kickoff, OV, and actual-result outcomes.
We translated “Must-win after three losses” into a fixed pregame condition and evaluated separate opening, opening-to-kickoff, kickoff, OV, and actual-result outcomes.
We translated “Must-win after two losses” into a fixed pregame condition and evaluated separate opening, opening-to-kickoff, kickoff, OV, and actual-result outcomes.
We translated “Revenge after humiliation” into a fixed pregame condition and evaluated separate opening, opening-to-kickoff, kickoff, OV, and actual-result outcomes.
We translated “Revenge game” into a fixed pregame condition and evaluated separate opening, opening-to-kickoff, kickoff, OV, and actual-result outcomes.
We translated “Rivalry games favor the underdog” into a fixed pregame condition and evaluated separate opening, opening-to-kickoff, kickoff, OV, and actual-result outcomes.
We translated “Road-favorite strength” into a fixed pregame condition and evaluated separate opening, opening-to-kickoff, kickoff, OV, and actual-result outcomes.
We translated “Straight-up hot streak” into a fixed pregame condition and evaluated separate opening, opening-to-kickoff, kickoff, OV, and actual-result outcomes.
We translated “Trap game” into a fixed pregame condition and evaluated separate opening, opening-to-kickoff, kickoff, OV, and actual-result outcomes.
No studies match those filters.