The opening market historically shaded toward the team whose home state contains the neutral venue.
The Ledger · Travel and venue
Neutral-Site Same-State Context
When a neutral venue is in the home state of exactly one team, does the market or result differ after other modeled effects?
Retain the factual same-state condition as a market explanation with wider uncertainty. Do not turn the kickoff ATS percentage into a betting claim or treat venue-state matching as proof of crowd advantage.
- Historical seasons
- 2017–19, 2021–25
- Primary sample
- 65 FBS-FBS same-state games
What the evidence says
The sampled market did not move farther toward the same-state team after opening.
The ATS rates point toward the same-state team, but 55 games are not enough to present a dependable edge.
Use the factual location context without pretending it proves crowd composition or guarantees an edge.
2026 prospective implementation
Automatically identifies neutral-site games played in one participant's state and publishes neutral distance context.
Current inputs
- Neutral-site flag
- Venue location
- Team locations
- Travel distances
- Additional source need
- No new source. It uses cached schedule and venue data.
- Refresh cadence
- Recomputed after a schedule or venue refresh.
- Coverage and limitations
- Distance is factual context, not proof of crowd composition or a directional home-field advantage.
Study results
| Test | Games | Result | Validation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Opening market vs OV Line | 55 | 1.01 points toward same-state team | 95% interval 0.33 to 1.72 |
| Opening-to-kickoff movement | 55 | 0.21 points away from same-state team | 95% interval -0.62 to 0.17 |
| Kickoff-adjacent market vs OV Line | 55 | 0.80 points toward same-state team | Season interval crosses zero |
| Actual margin vs OV Line | 65 | 2.93 points toward same-state team | Wide interval crosses zero |
| ATS record | 55 at each endpoint | 57.4% at open · 61.8% at kickoff | Descriptive; modest sample |
What we tested
The opening market averaged about one point toward the team whose home state matched the neutral venue. The kickoff estimate pointed the same way, but was less stable across seasons. Actual results and the ATS record are interesting, not conclusive.
- Neutral-site designation and venue state
- Each team’s modal home-venue state
- Great-circle distance sensitivity
- Opening, kickoff-adjacent, OV, and actual-result endpoints
Leakage and validation safeguards
- Leave-one-season-out validation
- Game- and season-level resampling
- Factual location label frozen before market and result outcomes
- Opening, in-week, kickoff, and ATS questions kept separate
What we learned
- The clearest evidence is the opening-market association.
- The sampled market did not move farther toward the same-state team after opening.
- The result and ATS estimates point the same way, but remain too uncertain to establish an edge.
What this does not prove
- Same-state status may proxy for ticket allocation, regional interest, or event designation.
- It does not establish the actual crowd composition of a specific game.
How uses this finding
Qualifying matchups may show the factual same-state condition and its opening-market history with a wider-uncertainty label. Any point value must come from the approved combined Factor system rather than treating the raw historical mean as an automatic correction.
Historical data record
Revalidated September 9 on canonical Factor research panel v3 using the corrected preseason-known schedule contract. Sixty-five FBS-FBS games qualify; 55 have the audited opening and kickoff states used for the pricing comparisons. Three FBS-FCS labels are excluded.
All 65 FBS-FBS same-state neutral-site games
Each row shows a neutral-site game where exactly one team's home state matches the venue state. The label is factual: it does not assume who had the crowd advantage or claim that distance caused the market difference.
| Season | Week | Neutral matchup | Venue | Same-state team | OV Line | Established opening | Kickoff-adjacent line | Opening location residual | Kickoff location residual | Opening-to-kickoff movement | Result vs opening | Result vs kickoff line | Final score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 7 | Oklahoma vs Texas | Cotton Bowl | Texas | Texas -3.5 | Texas -3.0 | Texas -2.5 | 0.5 pts toward Oklahoma | 1.0 pts toward Oklahoma | 0.5 pts toward Oklahoma | Texas covered | Texas covered | Texas 23, Oklahoma 6 |
| 2025 | 8 | UTEP vs Sam Houston | BBVA Compass Stadium | UTEP | UTEP -3.6 | UTEP -1.5 | UTEP -3.0 | 2.1 pts toward Sam Houston | 0.6 pts toward Sam Houston | 1.8 pts toward UTEP | UTEP covered | UTEP covered | Sam Houston 17, UTEP 35 |
| 2025 | 10 | Georgia vs Florida | EverBank Stadium | Florida | Georgia -10.3 | Georgia -7.5 | Georgia -7.0 | 2.8 pts toward Florida | 3.3 pts toward Florida | No difference | Florida covered | Florida covered | Florida 20, Georgia 24 |
| 2025 | 12 | Michigan vs Northwestern | Wrigley Field | Northwestern | Michigan -12.0 | Michigan -10.5 | Michigan -10.0 | 1.5 pts toward Northwestern | 2.0 pts toward Northwestern | 0.2 pts toward Northwestern | Northwestern covered | Northwestern covered | Northwestern 22, Michigan 24 |
| 2025 | 13 | Minnesota vs Northwestern | Wrigley Field | Northwestern | Northwestern -2.9 | Northwestern -4.2 | Northwestern -4.0 | 1.3 pts toward Northwestern | 1.1 pts toward Northwestern | 0.5 pts toward Minnesota | Minnesota covered | Minnesota covered | Northwestern 38, Minnesota 35 |
| 2025 | 14 | Maryland vs Michigan State | Ford Field | Michigan State | Michigan State -4.1 | Michigan State -3.5 | Michigan State -4.0 | 0.6 pts toward Maryland | 0.1 pts toward Maryland | No difference | Michigan State covered | Michigan State covered | Michigan State 38, Maryland 28 |
| 2025 | 15 | BYU vs Texas Tech | AT&T Stadium | Texas Tech | Texas Tech -11.1 | Texas Tech -12.5 | Texas Tech -12.5 | 1.4 pts toward Texas Tech | 1.4 pts toward Texas Tech | No difference | Texas Tech covered | Texas Tech covered | Texas Tech 34, BYU 7 |
| 2025 | 15 | Duke vs Virginia | Bank of America Stadium | Duke | Virginia -1.8 | Virginia -2.5 | Virginia -3.5 | 0.7 pts toward Virginia | 1.7 pts toward Virginia | 1.0 pts toward Virginia | Duke covered | Duke covered | Virginia 20, Duke 27 |
| 2025 | 15 | Miami (OH) vs Western Michigan | Ford Field | Western Michigan | Western Michigan -1.7 | Western Michigan -2.5 | Western Michigan -2.5 | 0.8 pts toward Western Michigan | 0.8 pts toward Western Michigan | 0.2 pts toward Miami (OH) | Western Michigan covered | Western Michigan covered | Western Michigan 23, Miami (OH) 13 |
| 2025 | 15 | Georgia vs Alabama | Mercedes-Benz Stadium | Georgia | Alabama -0.9 | Georgia -1.5 | Georgia -1.5 | 2.4 pts toward Georgia | 2.4 pts toward Georgia | No difference | Georgia covered | Georgia covered | Alabama 7, Georgia 28 |
| 2025 | 15 | Indiana vs Ohio State | Lucas Oil Stadium | Indiana | Ohio State -0.8 | Ohio State -5.8 | Ohio State -3.5 | 5.0 pts toward Ohio State | 2.7 pts toward Ohio State | 2.5 pts toward Indiana | Indiana covered | Indiana covered | Ohio State 10, Indiana 13 |
| 2025 | 16 | Army vs Navy | M&T Bank Stadium | Navy | Navy -4.0 | Navy -5.5 | Navy -6.5 | 1.5 pts toward Navy | 2.5 pts toward Navy | 1.0 pts toward Navy | Army covered | Army covered | Navy 17, Army 16 |
| 2024 | 1 | Clemson vs Georgia | Mercedes-Benz Stadium | Georgia | Georgia -13.7 | Georgia -13.5 | Georgia -11.0 | 0.2 pts toward Clemson | 2.7 pts toward Clemson | 3.0 pts toward Clemson | Georgia covered | Georgia covered | Georgia 34, Clemson 3 |
| 2024 | 2 | Tennessee vs NC State | Bank of America Stadium | NC State | Tennessee -7.0 | Tennessee -6.5 | Tennessee -8.5 | 0.5 pts toward NC State | 1.5 pts toward Tennessee | 2.0 pts toward Tennessee | Tennessee covered | Tennessee covered | NC State 10, Tennessee 51 |
| 2024 | 5 | Arkansas vs Texas A&M | AT&T Stadium | Texas A&M | Texas A&M -6.4 | Texas A&M -5.5 | Texas A&M -6.5 | 0.9 pts toward Arkansas | 0.1 pts toward Texas A&M | No difference | Arkansas covered | Arkansas covered | Texas A&M 21, Arkansas 17 |
| 2024 | 7 | Texas vs Oklahoma | Cotton Bowl | Texas | Texas -13.2 | Texas -15.0 | Texas -17.0 | 1.8 pts toward Texas | 3.8 pts toward Texas | 2.0 pts toward Texas | Texas covered | Texas covered | Oklahoma 3, Texas 34 |
| 2024 | 7 | Memphis vs South Florida | Camping World Stadium | South Florida | Memphis -6.9 | Memphis -7.0 | Memphis -10.0 | 0.1 pts toward Memphis | 3.1 pts toward Memphis | 3.0 pts toward Memphis | Memphis covered | Memphis covered | South Florida 3, Memphis 21 |
| 2024 | 8 | Notre Dame vs Georgia Tech | Mercedes-Benz Stadium | Georgia Tech | Notre Dame -12.3 | Notre Dame -8.5 | Notre Dame -14.0 | 3.8 pts toward Georgia Tech | 1.7 pts toward Notre Dame | 5.0 pts toward Notre Dame | Notre Dame covered | Notre Dame covered | Georgia Tech 13, Notre Dame 31 |
| 2024 | 10 | Florida vs Georgia | EverBank Stadium | Florida | Georgia -16.4 | Georgia -17.0 | Georgia -14.5 | 0.6 pts toward Georgia | 1.9 pts toward Florida | 2.5 pts toward Florida | Florida covered | Florida covered | Georgia 34, Florida 20 |
| 2024 | 13 | Army vs Notre Dame | Yankee Stadium | Army | Notre Dame -18.5 | Notre Dame -15.8 | Notre Dame -14.5 | 2.8 pts toward Army | 4.0 pts toward Army | 1.2 pts toward Army | Notre Dame covered | Notre Dame covered | Notre Dame 49, Army 14 |
| 2024 | 14 | Illinois vs Northwestern | Wrigley Field | Illinois | Illinois -4.7 | Illinois -7.8 | Illinois -8.8 | 3.0 pts toward Illinois | 4.0 pts toward Illinois | 1.0 pts toward Illinois | Illinois covered | Illinois covered | Northwestern 28, Illinois 38 |
| 2024 | 15 | Georgia vs Texas | Mercedes-Benz Stadium | Georgia | Texas -1.5 | Texas -2.8 | Texas -3.0 | 1.2 pts toward Texas | 1.5 pts toward Texas | No difference | Georgia covered | Georgia covered | Texas 19, Georgia 22 |
| 2024 | 16 | Navy vs Army | Northwest Stadium | Navy | Army -4.6 | Army -5.0 | Army -6.5 | 0.4 pts toward Army | 1.9 pts toward Army | 1.0 pts toward Army | Navy covered | Navy covered | Army 13, Navy 31 |
| 2023 | 1 | South Carolina vs North Carolina | Bank of America Stadium | North Carolina | South Carolina -0.1 | North Carolina -3.0 | North Carolina -2.5 | 3.1 pts toward North Carolina | 2.6 pts toward North Carolina | 0.5 pts toward South Carolina | North Carolina covered | North Carolina covered | North Carolina 31, South Carolina 17 |
| 2023 | 1 | Virginia vs Tennessee | Nissan Stadium | Tennessee | Tennessee -25.5 | Tennessee -28.0 | Tennessee -27.5 | 2.5 pts toward Tennessee | 2.0 pts toward Tennessee | 0.5 pts toward Virginia | Tennessee covered | Tennessee covered | Tennessee 49, Virginia 13 |
| 2023 | 1 | LSU vs Florida State | Camping World Stadium | Florida State | LSU -5.8 | LSU -2.5 | LSU -2.0 | 3.3 pts toward Florida State | 3.8 pts toward Florida State | 1.0 pts toward Florida State | Florida State covered | Florida State covered | Florida State 45, LSU 24 |
| 2023 | 1 | Louisville vs Georgia Tech | Mercedes-Benz Stadium | Georgia Tech | Louisville -11.8 | Louisville -8.0 | Louisville -7.5 | 3.8 pts toward Georgia Tech | 4.3 pts toward Georgia Tech | 1.0 pts toward Georgia Tech | Georgia Tech covered | Georgia Tech covered | Georgia Tech 34, Louisville 39 |
| 2023 | 2 | Air Force vs Sam Houston | NRG Stadium | Sam Houston | Air Force -13.5 | Air Force -14.5 | Air Force -13.5 | 1.0 pts toward Air Force | No difference | 1.5 pts toward Sam Houston | Sam Houston covered | Sam Houston covered | Sam Houston 3, Air Force 13 |
| 2023 | 3 | Louisville vs Indiana | Lucas Oil Stadium | Indiana | Louisville -7.7 | Louisville -10.5 | Louisville -10.0 | 2.8 pts toward Louisville | 2.3 pts toward Louisville | 0.5 pts toward Indiana | Indiana covered | Indiana covered | Indiana 14, Louisville 21 |
| 2023 | 4 | Memphis vs Missouri | The Dome at America's Center | Missouri | Missouri -4.7 | Missouri -7.0 | Missouri -6.5 | 2.3 pts toward Missouri | 1.8 pts toward Missouri | 0.5 pts toward Memphis | Push | Missouri covered | Missouri 34, Memphis 27 |
| 2023 | 5 | Texas A&M vs Arkansas | AT&T Stadium | Texas A&M | Texas A&M -10.5 | Texas A&M -6.5 | Texas A&M -6.5 | 4.0 pts toward Arkansas | 4.0 pts toward Arkansas | No difference | Texas A&M covered | Texas A&M covered | Arkansas 22, Texas A&M 34 |
| 2023 | 6 | Oklahoma vs Texas | Cotton Bowl | Texas | Texas -2.1 | Texas -6.0 | Texas -4.0 | 3.9 pts toward Texas | 1.9 pts toward Texas | 1.5 pts toward Oklahoma | Oklahoma covered | Oklahoma covered | Texas 30, Oklahoma 34 |
| 2023 | 9 | Georgia vs Florida | EverBank Stadium | Florida | Georgia -16.6 | Georgia -16.2 | Georgia -14.0 | 0.4 pts toward Florida | 2.6 pts toward Florida | 2.0 pts toward Florida | Georgia covered | Georgia covered | Florida 20, Georgia 43 |
| 2023 | 10 | Army vs Air Force | Sports Authority Field at Mile High | Air Force | Air Force -18.1 | Air Force -18.5 | Air Force -18.5 | 0.4 pts toward Air Force | 0.4 pts toward Air Force | No difference | Army covered | Army covered | Air Force 3, Army 23 |
| 2023 | 10 | Iowa vs Northwestern | Wrigley Field | Northwestern | Iowa -13.0 | Iowa -5.0 | Iowa -5.0 | 8.0 pts toward Northwestern | 8.0 pts toward Northwestern | No difference | Northwestern covered | Northwestern covered | Northwestern 7, Iowa 10 |
| 2023 | 11 | Pittsburgh vs Syracuse | Yankee Stadium | Syracuse | Pittsburgh -3.5 | Pittsburgh -2.0 | Pittsburgh -3.5 | 1.5 pts toward Syracuse | No difference | 1.5 pts toward Pittsburgh | Syracuse covered | Syracuse covered | Syracuse 28, Pittsburgh 13 |
| 2023 | 13 | Penn State vs Michigan State | Ford Field | Michigan State | Penn State -26.2 | Penn State -20.2 | Penn State -22.5 | 5.9 pts toward Michigan State | 3.7 pts toward Michigan State | 2.2 pts toward Penn State | Penn State covered | Penn State covered | Michigan State 0, Penn State 42 |
| 2023 | 14 | Oklahoma State vs Texas | AT&T Stadium | Texas | Texas -15.4 | Texas -12.5 | Texas -14.5 | 2.9 pts toward Oklahoma State | 0.9 pts toward Oklahoma State | 2.0 pts toward Texas | Texas covered | Texas covered | Texas 49, Oklahoma State 21 |
| 2023 | 14 | Georgia vs Alabama | Mercedes-Benz Stadium | Georgia | Georgia -3.2 | Georgia -5.0 | Georgia -5.5 | 1.8 pts toward Georgia | 2.3 pts toward Georgia | 0.5 pts toward Georgia | Alabama covered | Alabama covered | Alabama 27, Georgia 24 |
| 2022 | 1 | Oregon vs Georgia | Mercedes-Benz Stadium | Georgia | Georgia -16.7 | Georgia -17.5 | Georgia -16.0 | 0.8 pts toward Georgia | 0.7 pts toward Oregon | 1.5 pts toward Oregon | Georgia covered | Georgia covered | Georgia 49, Oregon 3 |
| 2022 | 1 | LSU vs Florida State | Caesars Superdome | LSU | LSU -5.9 | LSU -3.0 | LSU -4.0 | 2.9 pts toward Florida State | 1.9 pts toward Florida State | 1.0 pts toward LSU | Florida State covered | Florida State covered | Florida State 24, LSU 23 |
| 2022 | 1 | Clemson vs Georgia Tech | Mercedes-Benz Stadium | Georgia Tech | Clemson -22.3 | Clemson -21.0 | Clemson -24.0 | 1.3 pts toward Georgia Tech | 1.7 pts toward Clemson | 3.5 pts toward Clemson | Clemson covered | Clemson covered | Georgia Tech 10, Clemson 41 |
| 2022 | 4 | Arkansas vs Texas A&M | AT&T Stadium | Texas A&M | Texas A&M -4.9 | Texas A&M -2.5 | Texas A&M -1.5 | 2.4 pts toward Arkansas | 3.4 pts toward Arkansas | 1.0 pts toward Arkansas | Arkansas covered | Texas A&M covered | Texas A&M 23, Arkansas 21 |
| 2022 | 5 | East Carolina vs South Florida | FAU Stadium | South Florida | East Carolina -9.9 | East Carolina -8.5 | East Carolina -9.5 | 1.4 pts toward South Florida | 0.4 pts toward South Florida | 1.0 pts toward East Carolina | East Carolina covered | East Carolina covered | South Florida 28, East Carolina 48 |
| 2022 | 6 | Texas vs Oklahoma | Cotton Bowl | Texas | Oklahoma -3.7 | Texas -6.5 | Texas -7.5 | 10.2 pts toward Texas | 11.2 pts toward Texas | 1.0 pts toward Texas | Texas covered | Texas covered | Oklahoma 0, Texas 49 |
| 2022 | 9 | Florida vs Georgia | EverBank Stadium | Florida | Georgia -21.2 | Georgia -21.5 | Georgia -23.0 | 0.3 pts toward Georgia | 1.8 pts toward Georgia | 1.5 pts toward Georgia | Georgia covered | Florida covered | Georgia 42, Florida 20 |
| 2022 | 11 | Notre Dame vs Navy | M&T Bank Stadium | Navy | Notre Dame -19.9 | Notre Dame -17.0 | Notre Dame -17.0 | 2.9 pts toward Navy | 2.9 pts toward Navy | No difference | Navy covered | Navy covered | Navy 32, Notre Dame 35 |
| 2022 | 14 | Clemson vs North Carolina | Bank of America Stadium | North Carolina | Clemson -8.8 | Clemson -7.5 | Clemson -7.5 | 1.3 pts toward North Carolina | 1.3 pts toward North Carolina | No difference | Clemson covered | Clemson covered | North Carolina 10, Clemson 39 |
| 2022 | 14 | Kansas State vs TCU | AT&T Stadium | TCU | TCU -1.3 | TCU -2.5 | TCU -1.0 | 1.2 pts toward TCU | 0.3 pts toward Kansas State | 1.0 pts toward Kansas State | Kansas State covered | Kansas State covered | TCU 28, Kansas State 31 |
| 2022 | 14 | Purdue vs Michigan | Lucas Oil Stadium | Purdue | Michigan -17.9 | Michigan -15.8 | Michigan -15.5 | 2.1 pts toward Purdue | 2.4 pts toward Purdue | 0.2 pts toward Purdue | Michigan covered | Michigan covered | Michigan 43, Purdue 22 |
| 2022 | 14 | LSU vs Georgia | Mercedes-Benz Stadium | Georgia | Georgia -14.9 | Georgia -16.5 | Georgia -17.5 | 1.6 pts toward Georgia | 2.6 pts toward Georgia | 1.0 pts toward Georgia | Georgia covered | Georgia covered | Georgia 50, LSU 30 |
| 2021 | 4 | North Carolina vs Georgia Tech | Mercedes-Benz Stadium | Georgia Tech | North Carolina -11.5 | North Carolina -12.2 | North Carolina -14.0 | 0.7 pts toward North Carolina | 2.5 pts toward North Carolina | 2.0 pts toward North Carolina | Georgia Tech covered | Georgia Tech covered | Georgia Tech 45, North Carolina 22 |
| 2021 | 6 | Oklahoma vs Texas | Cotton Bowl | Texas | Oklahoma -5.0 | Oklahoma -3.5 | Oklahoma -3.5 | 1.5 pts toward Texas | 1.5 pts toward Texas | No difference | Oklahoma covered | Oklahoma covered | Texas 48, Oklahoma 55 |
| 2021 | 14 | Georgia vs Alabama | Mercedes-Benz Stadium | Georgia | Georgia -5.2 | Georgia -6.5 | Georgia -6.5 | 1.3 pts toward Georgia | 1.3 pts toward Georgia | No difference | Alabama covered | Alabama covered | Alabama 41, Georgia 24 |
| 2021 | 14 | Pittsburgh vs Wake Forest | Bank of America Stadium | Wake Forest | Pittsburgh -0.9 | Pittsburgh -2.5 | Pittsburgh -3.5 | 1.6 pts toward Pittsburgh | 2.6 pts toward Pittsburgh | 1.0 pts toward Pittsburgh | Pittsburgh covered | Pittsburgh covered | Wake Forest 21, Pittsburgh 45 |
| 2019 | 1 | South Carolina vs North Carolina | Bank of America Stadium | North Carolina | South Carolina -9.3 | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | North Carolina 24, South Carolina 20 |
| 2019 | 7 | Oklahoma vs Texas | Cotton Bowl | Texas | Oklahoma -11.5 | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Texas 27, Oklahoma 34 |
| 2019 | 15 | Georgia vs LSU | Mercedes-Benz Stadium | Georgia | LSU -4.0 | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | LSU 37, Georgia 10 |
| 2019 | 15 | Miami (OH) vs Central Michigan | Ford Field | Central Michigan | Central Michigan -5.4 | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Central Michigan 21, Miami (OH) 26 |
| 2018 | 6 | Texas vs Oklahoma | Cotton Bowl | Texas | Oklahoma -7.9 | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Oklahoma 45, Texas 48 |
| 2018 | 14 | Alabama vs Georgia | Mercedes-Benz Stadium | Georgia | Alabama -11.5 | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Georgia 28, Alabama 35 |
| 2017 | 1 | NC State vs South Carolina | Bank of America Stadium | NC State | NC State -5.4 | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | South Carolina 35, NC State 28 |
| 2017 | 1 | Tennessee vs Georgia Tech | Mercedes-Benz Stadium | Georgia Tech | Tennessee -0.2 | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Georgia Tech 41, Tennessee 42 |
| 2017 | 7 | Oklahoma vs Texas | Cotton Bowl | Texas | Oklahoma -13.1 | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Texas 24, Oklahoma 29 |
| 2017 | 14 | Georgia vs Auburn | Mercedes-Benz Stadium | Georgia | Georgia -0.7 | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Auburn 7, Georgia 28 |
No historical records match that search.