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The Ledger · Travel and venue

Neutral-Site Same-State Context

When a neutral venue is in the home state of exactly one team, does the market or result differ after other modeled effects?

Supported · wider uncertaintyThe opening association is supported, but the sample remains modest and later endpoints are less stable.Updated September 9, 2026
Decision

Retain the factual same-state condition as a market explanation with wider uncertainty. Do not turn the kickoff ATS percentage into a betting claim or treat venue-state matching as proof of crowd advantage.

Historical seasons
2017–19, 2021–25
Primary sample
65 FBS-FBS same-state games
Start here

What the evidence says

At openAbout 1.0 point

The opening market historically shaded toward the team whose home state contains the neutral venue.

In-week pricingNo dependable extra move

The sampled market did not move farther toward the same-state team after opening.

Against the spreadInteresting, not conclusive

The ATS rates point toward the same-state team, but 55 games are not enough to present a dependable edge.

What this meansSupported · wider uncertainty

Use the factual location context without pretending it proves crowd composition or guarantees an edge.

2026 prospective implementation

Live detection

Automatically identifies neutral-site games played in one participant's state and publishes neutral distance context.

Current inputs

  • Neutral-site flag
  • Venue location
  • Team locations
  • Travel distances
Additional source need
No new source. It uses cached schedule and venue data.
Refresh cadence
Recomputed after a schedule or venue refresh.
Coverage and limitations
Distance is factual context, not proof of crowd composition or a directional home-field advantage.

Study results

TestGamesResultValidation
Opening market vs OV Line551.01 points toward same-state team95% interval 0.33 to 1.72
Opening-to-kickoff movement550.21 points away from same-state team95% interval -0.62 to 0.17
Kickoff-adjacent market vs OV Line550.80 points toward same-state teamSeason interval crosses zero
Actual margin vs OV Line652.93 points toward same-state teamWide interval crosses zero
ATS record55 at each endpoint57.4% at open · 61.8% at kickoffDescriptive; modest sample

What we tested

The opening market averaged about one point toward the team whose home state matched the neutral venue. The kickoff estimate pointed the same way, but was less stable across seasons. Actual results and the ATS record are interesting, not conclusive.

  • Neutral-site designation and venue state
  • Each team’s modal home-venue state
  • Great-circle distance sensitivity
  • Opening, kickoff-adjacent, OV, and actual-result endpoints

Leakage and validation safeguards

  • Leave-one-season-out validation
  • Game- and season-level resampling
  • Factual location label frozen before market and result outcomes
  • Opening, in-week, kickoff, and ATS questions kept separate

What we learned

  • The clearest evidence is the opening-market association.
  • The sampled market did not move farther toward the same-state team after opening.
  • The result and ATS estimates point the same way, but remain too uncertain to establish an edge.

What this does not prove

  • Same-state status may proxy for ticket allocation, regional interest, or event designation.
  • It does not establish the actual crowd composition of a specific game.

How uses this finding

Qualifying matchups may show the factual same-state condition and its opening-market history with a wider-uncertainty label. Any point value must come from the approved combined Factor system rather than treating the raw historical mean as an automatic correction.

Historical data record

Revalidated September 9 on canonical Factor research panel v3 using the corrected preseason-known schedule contract. Sixty-five FBS-FBS games qualify; 55 have the audited opening and kickoff states used for the pricing comparisons. Three FBS-FCS labels are excluded.

All 65 FBS-FBS same-state neutral-site games

Each row shows a neutral-site game where exactly one team's home state matches the venue state. The label is factual: it does not assume who had the crowd advantage or claim that distance caused the market difference.

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SeasonWeekNeutral matchupVenueSame-state teamOV LineEstablished openingKickoff-adjacent lineOpening location residualKickoff location residualOpening-to-kickoff movementResult vs openingResult vs kickoff lineFinal score
20257Oklahoma vs TexasCotton BowlTexasTexas -3.5Texas -3.0Texas -2.50.5 pts toward Oklahoma1.0 pts toward Oklahoma0.5 pts toward OklahomaTexas coveredTexas coveredTexas 23, Oklahoma 6
20258UTEP vs Sam HoustonBBVA Compass StadiumUTEPUTEP -3.6UTEP -1.5UTEP -3.02.1 pts toward Sam Houston0.6 pts toward Sam Houston1.8 pts toward UTEPUTEP coveredUTEP coveredSam Houston 17, UTEP 35
202510Georgia vs FloridaEverBank StadiumFloridaGeorgia -10.3Georgia -7.5Georgia -7.02.8 pts toward Florida3.3 pts toward FloridaNo differenceFlorida coveredFlorida coveredFlorida 20, Georgia 24
202512Michigan vs NorthwesternWrigley FieldNorthwesternMichigan -12.0Michigan -10.5Michigan -10.01.5 pts toward Northwestern2.0 pts toward Northwestern0.2 pts toward NorthwesternNorthwestern coveredNorthwestern coveredNorthwestern 22, Michigan 24
202513Minnesota vs NorthwesternWrigley FieldNorthwesternNorthwestern -2.9Northwestern -4.2Northwestern -4.01.3 pts toward Northwestern1.1 pts toward Northwestern0.5 pts toward MinnesotaMinnesota coveredMinnesota coveredNorthwestern 38, Minnesota 35
202514Maryland vs Michigan StateFord FieldMichigan StateMichigan State -4.1Michigan State -3.5Michigan State -4.00.6 pts toward Maryland0.1 pts toward MarylandNo differenceMichigan State coveredMichigan State coveredMichigan State 38, Maryland 28
202515BYU vs Texas TechAT&T StadiumTexas TechTexas Tech -11.1Texas Tech -12.5Texas Tech -12.51.4 pts toward Texas Tech1.4 pts toward Texas TechNo differenceTexas Tech coveredTexas Tech coveredTexas Tech 34, BYU 7
202515Duke vs VirginiaBank of America StadiumDukeVirginia -1.8Virginia -2.5Virginia -3.50.7 pts toward Virginia1.7 pts toward Virginia1.0 pts toward VirginiaDuke coveredDuke coveredVirginia 20, Duke 27
202515Miami (OH) vs Western MichiganFord FieldWestern MichiganWestern Michigan -1.7Western Michigan -2.5Western Michigan -2.50.8 pts toward Western Michigan0.8 pts toward Western Michigan0.2 pts toward Miami (OH)Western Michigan coveredWestern Michigan coveredWestern Michigan 23, Miami (OH) 13
202515Georgia vs AlabamaMercedes-Benz StadiumGeorgiaAlabama -0.9Georgia -1.5Georgia -1.52.4 pts toward Georgia2.4 pts toward GeorgiaNo differenceGeorgia coveredGeorgia coveredAlabama 7, Georgia 28
202515Indiana vs Ohio StateLucas Oil StadiumIndianaOhio State -0.8Ohio State -5.8Ohio State -3.55.0 pts toward Ohio State2.7 pts toward Ohio State2.5 pts toward IndianaIndiana coveredIndiana coveredOhio State 10, Indiana 13
202516Army vs NavyM&T Bank StadiumNavyNavy -4.0Navy -5.5Navy -6.51.5 pts toward Navy2.5 pts toward Navy1.0 pts toward NavyArmy coveredArmy coveredNavy 17, Army 16
20241Clemson vs GeorgiaMercedes-Benz StadiumGeorgiaGeorgia -13.7Georgia -13.5Georgia -11.00.2 pts toward Clemson2.7 pts toward Clemson3.0 pts toward ClemsonGeorgia coveredGeorgia coveredGeorgia 34, Clemson 3
20242Tennessee vs NC StateBank of America StadiumNC StateTennessee -7.0Tennessee -6.5Tennessee -8.50.5 pts toward NC State1.5 pts toward Tennessee2.0 pts toward TennesseeTennessee coveredTennessee coveredNC State 10, Tennessee 51
20245Arkansas vs Texas A&MAT&T StadiumTexas A&MTexas A&M -6.4Texas A&M -5.5Texas A&M -6.50.9 pts toward Arkansas0.1 pts toward Texas A&MNo differenceArkansas coveredArkansas coveredTexas A&M 21, Arkansas 17
20247Texas vs OklahomaCotton BowlTexasTexas -13.2Texas -15.0Texas -17.01.8 pts toward Texas3.8 pts toward Texas2.0 pts toward TexasTexas coveredTexas coveredOklahoma 3, Texas 34
20247Memphis vs South FloridaCamping World StadiumSouth FloridaMemphis -6.9Memphis -7.0Memphis -10.00.1 pts toward Memphis3.1 pts toward Memphis3.0 pts toward MemphisMemphis coveredMemphis coveredSouth Florida 3, Memphis 21
20248Notre Dame vs Georgia TechMercedes-Benz StadiumGeorgia TechNotre Dame -12.3Notre Dame -8.5Notre Dame -14.03.8 pts toward Georgia Tech1.7 pts toward Notre Dame5.0 pts toward Notre DameNotre Dame coveredNotre Dame coveredGeorgia Tech 13, Notre Dame 31
202410Florida vs GeorgiaEverBank StadiumFloridaGeorgia -16.4Georgia -17.0Georgia -14.50.6 pts toward Georgia1.9 pts toward Florida2.5 pts toward FloridaFlorida coveredFlorida coveredGeorgia 34, Florida 20
202413Army vs Notre DameYankee StadiumArmyNotre Dame -18.5Notre Dame -15.8Notre Dame -14.52.8 pts toward Army4.0 pts toward Army1.2 pts toward ArmyNotre Dame coveredNotre Dame coveredNotre Dame 49, Army 14
202414Illinois vs NorthwesternWrigley FieldIllinoisIllinois -4.7Illinois -7.8Illinois -8.83.0 pts toward Illinois4.0 pts toward Illinois1.0 pts toward IllinoisIllinois coveredIllinois coveredNorthwestern 28, Illinois 38
202415Georgia vs TexasMercedes-Benz StadiumGeorgiaTexas -1.5Texas -2.8Texas -3.01.2 pts toward Texas1.5 pts toward TexasNo differenceGeorgia coveredGeorgia coveredTexas 19, Georgia 22
202416Navy vs ArmyNorthwest StadiumNavyArmy -4.6Army -5.0Army -6.50.4 pts toward Army1.9 pts toward Army1.0 pts toward ArmyNavy coveredNavy coveredArmy 13, Navy 31
20231South Carolina vs North CarolinaBank of America StadiumNorth CarolinaSouth Carolina -0.1North Carolina -3.0North Carolina -2.53.1 pts toward North Carolina2.6 pts toward North Carolina0.5 pts toward South CarolinaNorth Carolina coveredNorth Carolina coveredNorth Carolina 31, South Carolina 17
20231Virginia vs TennesseeNissan StadiumTennesseeTennessee -25.5Tennessee -28.0Tennessee -27.52.5 pts toward Tennessee2.0 pts toward Tennessee0.5 pts toward VirginiaTennessee coveredTennessee coveredTennessee 49, Virginia 13
20231LSU vs Florida StateCamping World StadiumFlorida StateLSU -5.8LSU -2.5LSU -2.03.3 pts toward Florida State3.8 pts toward Florida State1.0 pts toward Florida StateFlorida State coveredFlorida State coveredFlorida State 45, LSU 24
20231Louisville vs Georgia TechMercedes-Benz StadiumGeorgia TechLouisville -11.8Louisville -8.0Louisville -7.53.8 pts toward Georgia Tech4.3 pts toward Georgia Tech1.0 pts toward Georgia TechGeorgia Tech coveredGeorgia Tech coveredGeorgia Tech 34, Louisville 39
20232Air Force vs Sam HoustonNRG StadiumSam HoustonAir Force -13.5Air Force -14.5Air Force -13.51.0 pts toward Air ForceNo difference1.5 pts toward Sam HoustonSam Houston coveredSam Houston coveredSam Houston 3, Air Force 13
20233Louisville vs IndianaLucas Oil StadiumIndianaLouisville -7.7Louisville -10.5Louisville -10.02.8 pts toward Louisville2.3 pts toward Louisville0.5 pts toward IndianaIndiana coveredIndiana coveredIndiana 14, Louisville 21
20234Memphis vs MissouriThe Dome at America's CenterMissouriMissouri -4.7Missouri -7.0Missouri -6.52.3 pts toward Missouri1.8 pts toward Missouri0.5 pts toward MemphisPushMissouri coveredMissouri 34, Memphis 27
20235Texas A&M vs ArkansasAT&T StadiumTexas A&MTexas A&M -10.5Texas A&M -6.5Texas A&M -6.54.0 pts toward Arkansas4.0 pts toward ArkansasNo differenceTexas A&M coveredTexas A&M coveredArkansas 22, Texas A&M 34
20236Oklahoma vs TexasCotton BowlTexasTexas -2.1Texas -6.0Texas -4.03.9 pts toward Texas1.9 pts toward Texas1.5 pts toward OklahomaOklahoma coveredOklahoma coveredTexas 30, Oklahoma 34
20239Georgia vs FloridaEverBank StadiumFloridaGeorgia -16.6Georgia -16.2Georgia -14.00.4 pts toward Florida2.6 pts toward Florida2.0 pts toward FloridaGeorgia coveredGeorgia coveredFlorida 20, Georgia 43
202310Army vs Air ForceSports Authority Field at Mile HighAir ForceAir Force -18.1Air Force -18.5Air Force -18.50.4 pts toward Air Force0.4 pts toward Air ForceNo differenceArmy coveredArmy coveredAir Force 3, Army 23
202310Iowa vs NorthwesternWrigley FieldNorthwesternIowa -13.0Iowa -5.0Iowa -5.08.0 pts toward Northwestern8.0 pts toward NorthwesternNo differenceNorthwestern coveredNorthwestern coveredNorthwestern 7, Iowa 10
202311Pittsburgh vs SyracuseYankee StadiumSyracusePittsburgh -3.5Pittsburgh -2.0Pittsburgh -3.51.5 pts toward SyracuseNo difference1.5 pts toward PittsburghSyracuse coveredSyracuse coveredSyracuse 28, Pittsburgh 13
202313Penn State vs Michigan StateFord FieldMichigan StatePenn State -26.2Penn State -20.2Penn State -22.55.9 pts toward Michigan State3.7 pts toward Michigan State2.2 pts toward Penn StatePenn State coveredPenn State coveredMichigan State 0, Penn State 42
202314Oklahoma State vs TexasAT&T StadiumTexasTexas -15.4Texas -12.5Texas -14.52.9 pts toward Oklahoma State0.9 pts toward Oklahoma State2.0 pts toward TexasTexas coveredTexas coveredTexas 49, Oklahoma State 21
202314Georgia vs AlabamaMercedes-Benz StadiumGeorgiaGeorgia -3.2Georgia -5.0Georgia -5.51.8 pts toward Georgia2.3 pts toward Georgia0.5 pts toward GeorgiaAlabama coveredAlabama coveredAlabama 27, Georgia 24
20221Oregon vs GeorgiaMercedes-Benz StadiumGeorgiaGeorgia -16.7Georgia -17.5Georgia -16.00.8 pts toward Georgia0.7 pts toward Oregon1.5 pts toward OregonGeorgia coveredGeorgia coveredGeorgia 49, Oregon 3
20221LSU vs Florida StateCaesars SuperdomeLSULSU -5.9LSU -3.0LSU -4.02.9 pts toward Florida State1.9 pts toward Florida State1.0 pts toward LSUFlorida State coveredFlorida State coveredFlorida State 24, LSU 23
20221Clemson vs Georgia TechMercedes-Benz StadiumGeorgia TechClemson -22.3Clemson -21.0Clemson -24.01.3 pts toward Georgia Tech1.7 pts toward Clemson3.5 pts toward ClemsonClemson coveredClemson coveredGeorgia Tech 10, Clemson 41
20224Arkansas vs Texas A&MAT&T StadiumTexas A&MTexas A&M -4.9Texas A&M -2.5Texas A&M -1.52.4 pts toward Arkansas3.4 pts toward Arkansas1.0 pts toward ArkansasArkansas coveredTexas A&M coveredTexas A&M 23, Arkansas 21
20225East Carolina vs South FloridaFAU StadiumSouth FloridaEast Carolina -9.9East Carolina -8.5East Carolina -9.51.4 pts toward South Florida0.4 pts toward South Florida1.0 pts toward East CarolinaEast Carolina coveredEast Carolina coveredSouth Florida 28, East Carolina 48
20226Texas vs OklahomaCotton BowlTexasOklahoma -3.7Texas -6.5Texas -7.510.2 pts toward Texas11.2 pts toward Texas1.0 pts toward TexasTexas coveredTexas coveredOklahoma 0, Texas 49
20229Florida vs GeorgiaEverBank StadiumFloridaGeorgia -21.2Georgia -21.5Georgia -23.00.3 pts toward Georgia1.8 pts toward Georgia1.5 pts toward GeorgiaGeorgia coveredFlorida coveredGeorgia 42, Florida 20
202211Notre Dame vs NavyM&T Bank StadiumNavyNotre Dame -19.9Notre Dame -17.0Notre Dame -17.02.9 pts toward Navy2.9 pts toward NavyNo differenceNavy coveredNavy coveredNavy 32, Notre Dame 35
202214Clemson vs North CarolinaBank of America StadiumNorth CarolinaClemson -8.8Clemson -7.5Clemson -7.51.3 pts toward North Carolina1.3 pts toward North CarolinaNo differenceClemson coveredClemson coveredNorth Carolina 10, Clemson 39
202214Kansas State vs TCUAT&T StadiumTCUTCU -1.3TCU -2.5TCU -1.01.2 pts toward TCU0.3 pts toward Kansas State1.0 pts toward Kansas StateKansas State coveredKansas State coveredTCU 28, Kansas State 31
202214Purdue vs MichiganLucas Oil StadiumPurdueMichigan -17.9Michigan -15.8Michigan -15.52.1 pts toward Purdue2.4 pts toward Purdue0.2 pts toward PurdueMichigan coveredMichigan coveredMichigan 43, Purdue 22
202214LSU vs GeorgiaMercedes-Benz StadiumGeorgiaGeorgia -14.9Georgia -16.5Georgia -17.51.6 pts toward Georgia2.6 pts toward Georgia1.0 pts toward GeorgiaGeorgia coveredGeorgia coveredGeorgia 50, LSU 30
20214North Carolina vs Georgia TechMercedes-Benz StadiumGeorgia TechNorth Carolina -11.5North Carolina -12.2North Carolina -14.00.7 pts toward North Carolina2.5 pts toward North Carolina2.0 pts toward North CarolinaGeorgia Tech coveredGeorgia Tech coveredGeorgia Tech 45, North Carolina 22
20216Oklahoma vs TexasCotton BowlTexasOklahoma -5.0Oklahoma -3.5Oklahoma -3.51.5 pts toward Texas1.5 pts toward TexasNo differenceOklahoma coveredOklahoma coveredTexas 48, Oklahoma 55
202114Georgia vs AlabamaMercedes-Benz StadiumGeorgiaGeorgia -5.2Georgia -6.5Georgia -6.51.3 pts toward Georgia1.3 pts toward GeorgiaNo differenceAlabama coveredAlabama coveredAlabama 41, Georgia 24
202114Pittsburgh vs Wake ForestBank of America StadiumWake ForestPittsburgh -0.9Pittsburgh -2.5Pittsburgh -3.51.6 pts toward Pittsburgh2.6 pts toward Pittsburgh1.0 pts toward PittsburghPittsburgh coveredPittsburgh coveredWake Forest 21, Pittsburgh 45
20191South Carolina vs North CarolinaBank of America StadiumNorth CarolinaSouth Carolina -9.3Not availableNot availableNot availableNot availableNot availableNot availableNot availableNorth Carolina 24, South Carolina 20
20197Oklahoma vs TexasCotton BowlTexasOklahoma -11.5Not availableNot availableNot availableNot availableNot availableNot availableNot availableTexas 27, Oklahoma 34
201915Georgia vs LSUMercedes-Benz StadiumGeorgiaLSU -4.0Not availableNot availableNot availableNot availableNot availableNot availableNot availableLSU 37, Georgia 10
201915Miami (OH) vs Central MichiganFord FieldCentral MichiganCentral Michigan -5.4Not availableNot availableNot availableNot availableNot availableNot availableNot availableCentral Michigan 21, Miami (OH) 26
20186Texas vs OklahomaCotton BowlTexasOklahoma -7.9Not availableNot availableNot availableNot availableNot availableNot availableNot availableOklahoma 45, Texas 48
201814Alabama vs GeorgiaMercedes-Benz StadiumGeorgiaAlabama -11.5Not availableNot availableNot availableNot availableNot availableNot availableNot availableGeorgia 28, Alabama 35
20171NC State vs South CarolinaBank of America StadiumNC StateNC State -5.4Not availableNot availableNot availableNot availableNot availableNot availableNot availableSouth Carolina 35, NC State 28
20171Tennessee vs Georgia TechMercedes-Benz StadiumGeorgia TechTennessee -0.2Not availableNot availableNot availableNot availableNot availableNot availableNot availableGeorgia Tech 41, Tennessee 42
20177Oklahoma vs TexasCotton BowlTexasOklahoma -13.1Not availableNot availableNot availableNot availableNot availableNot availableNot availableTexas 24, Oklahoma 29
201714Georgia vs AuburnMercedes-Benz StadiumGeorgiaGeorgia -0.7Not availableNot availableNot availableNot availableNot availableNot availableNot availableAuburn 7, Georgia 28
65 of 65 records shownNeutral-site FBS-FBS games · 2017–19 and 2021–25 · 2020 excluded · exactly one team shares the venue state · canonical Factor research panel v3 · corrected preseason-known schedule contract · market states shown only where audited observations exist