Across 69 games, the opening market was only 0.07 points toward the new coach relative to the OV Line—functionally zero.
The Ledger · Coaching
First Full Season as Head Coach
Does the market apply a separate adjustment when a coach begins his first full season at a school?
No separate adjustmentWe found no dependable general adjustment for a coach entering his first full season at the school.Updated September 9, 2026
Decision
Show the coaching transition under Other conditions we evaluated, but add zero points. Keep prior-season interims labeled separately so users can see that the coach was already running the program before his first full season.
- Historical seasons
- 2017–19, 2021–25
- Primary sample
- 124 labeled openers · 112 directional cases
Start here
What the evidence says
The opening-to-kickoff market moved only 0.03 points away from the new coach on average, with a wide interval around zero.
The side away from the new coach covered 53.6% at opening and 52.2% at kickoff; neither record establishes an edge.
We show the coaching transition—and identify prior interims—but leave it out of the Factor total because the canonical study found no dependable generic adjustment.
2026 prospective implementation
Automatically identifies a coach's first full-season opener, including coaches who served as interim head coach the prior season.
Current inputs
- 2026 head coach
- Prior FBS head-coaching games
- Interim-service history
- Team game number
- Additional source need
- No new source. It uses the existing coach and schedule data.
- Refresh cadence
- Refresh when coaching assignments or official schedules change.
- Coverage and limitations
- The live copy distinguishes prior interim service from a coach with no prior head-coaching games.
Study results
| Test | Games | Result | Validation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Labeled openers | 124 | 112 directional · 12 net-neutral | Eight directional cases followed prior-season interim service |
| Established opening | 69 | 0.07 points toward new coach | Interval -0.79 to +0.63 on the away-from-new scale |
| Opening to kickoff | 69 | 0.03 points away from new coach | Interval -0.58 to +0.63 |
| Kickoff-adjacent market | 69 | 0.05 points toward new coach | Interval -0.99 to +0.89 on the away-from-new scale |
| Actual margin vs OV | 112 | 1.15 points away from new coach | Interval -1.99 to +4.25 |
| ATS at opening | 69 | Side away from new coach covered 53.6% | 37–32; interval 42.0% to 64.9% |
| ATS at kickoff | 69 | Side away from new coach covered 52.2% | 36–33; interval 40.6% to 63.5% |
What we tested
Not in any dependable way. Across 69 games with an established opening and kickoff-adjacent line, the market was nearly centered on the OV Line at both snapshots. Results and ATS records also fail to establish a reliable side.
- Coach identity at each school’s first game
- Whether the coach served as interim at the same school the prior season
- Canonical preseason OV Ratings and corrected preseason-known schedules
- Established opening, kickoff-adjacent market, and final score
Leakage and validation safeguards
- 2020 excluded
- FBS-FBS games only
- Coach identity frozen from information available before the team’s opener
- New-coach versus new-coach games retained as net-neutral rather than forced into a direction
- Leave-one-season-out validation for proposed mean adjustments
What we learned
- The market was almost exactly centered on the OV Line in the primary opening and kickoff samples.
- A proposed mean adjustment made held-season opening and kickoff accuracy worse than simply using zero points.
- The no-prior-head-coaching-experience subtype leaned modestly away from the new coach, but its interval remained wide and its ATS record did not establish an edge.
- Prior-season interim continuations remain a useful factual distinction, but eight directional games—only four with the primary market snapshots—cannot support their own number.
What this does not prove
- This estimates the incremental game-level relationship after the preseason OV Rating; it does not say coaching changes are irrelevant to the team’s aggregate preseason outlook.
- The primary market sample covers 69 directional games across five seasons, so smaller coaching subtypes remain imprecise.
- FBS-FCS openers are excluded from this comparison.
How uses this finding
Qualifying opener cards may identify both coaches under Other conditions we evaluated, but contribute zero points. Prior interims retain the First Full Season label and their prior-game count.
Historical data record
Revalidated September 9 under canonical Factor research panel v3 and the corrected preseason-known schedule contract. The historical record contains 124 FBS-FBS games with at least one first-full-season coach: 112 directional games and 12 new-coach-versus-new-coach or otherwise net-neutral games. The primary opening and kickoff comparison contains 69 directional games.
All 124 first-full-season head-coach games
Each row keeps the OV Line, established opening, selected kickoff-adjacent line, and actual result separate. Market differences are expressed relative to the team with the newly installed head coach.
| Season | Week | Matchup | New coach | Transition | OV Line | Established opening | Kickoff-adjacent line | Opening residual | Kickoff residual | Opening-to-kickoff movement | Result vs opening | Result vs kickoff line | Final score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 1 | Marshall at Georgia | Tony Gibson · Marshall | New hire | Georgia -40.7 | Georgia -39.5 | Georgia -38.5 | 1.2 pts toward new coach | 2.2 pts toward new coach | 1.0 pts toward new coach | Marshall covered | Marshall covered | Georgia 45, Marshall 7 |
| 2025 | 1 | Mississippi State at Southern Miss | Charles Huff · Southern Miss | New hire | Mississippi State -10.9 | Mississippi State -11.5 | Mississippi State -14.5 | 0.6 pts toward returning coach | 3.6 pts toward returning coach | 3.0 pts toward returning coach | Mississippi State covered | Mississippi State covered | Southern Miss 17, Mississippi State 34 |
| 2025 | 1 | Ohio at Rutgers | Brian Smith · Ohio | New hire | Rutgers -12.5 | Rutgers -11.5 | Rutgers -15.5 | 1.0 pts toward new coach | 3.0 pts toward returning coach | 4.0 pts toward returning coach | Ohio covered | Ohio covered | Rutgers 34, Ohio 31 |
| 2025 | 1 | Florida Atlantic at Maryland | Zach Kittley · Florida Atlantic | New hire | Maryland -14.3 | Maryland -16.0 | Maryland -12.5 | 1.7 pts toward returning coach | 1.8 pts toward new coach | 3.0 pts toward new coach | Maryland covered | Maryland covered | Maryland 39, Florida Atlantic 7 |
| 2025 | 1 | Ball State at Purdue | Mike Uremovich · Ball State / Barry Odom · Purdue | Both teams have first-full-season coaches | Purdue -17.3 | Purdue -16.5 | Purdue -17.0 | Not available | Not available | Not available | Purdue covered | Purdue covered | Purdue 31, Ball State 0 |
| 2025 | 1 | New Mexico at Michigan | Jason Eck · New Mexico | New hire | Michigan -37.3 | Michigan -36.5 | Michigan -34.5 | 0.8 pts toward new coach | 2.8 pts toward new coach | 2.0 pts toward new coach | New Mexico covered | New Mexico covered | Michigan 34, New Mexico 17 |
| 2025 | 1 | East Carolina at NC State | Blake Harrell · East Carolina | Interim (6 prior games); first full season | NC State -13.8 | NC State -11.5 | NC State -14.0 | 2.3 pts toward new coach | 0.2 pts toward returning coach | 2.0 pts toward returning coach | East Carolina covered | East Carolina covered | NC State 24, East Carolina 17 |
| 2025 | 1 | Kennesaw State at Wake Forest | Jerry Mack · Kennesaw State / Jake Dickert · Wake Forest | Both teams have first-full-season coaches | Wake Forest -16.9 | Wake Forest -17.5 | Wake Forest -18.5 | Not available | Not available | Not available | Kennesaw State covered | Kennesaw State covered | Wake Forest 10, Kennesaw State 9 |
| 2025 | 1 | Stanford at Hawai'i | Frank Reich · Stanford | New hire | Stanford -0.5 | Hawai'i -1.5 | Hawai'i -2.5 | 2.0 pts toward returning coach | 3.0 pts toward returning coach | 1.0 pts toward returning coach | Hawai'i covered | Hawai'i covered | Hawai'i 23, Stanford 20 |
| 2025 | 1 | TCU at North Carolina | Bill Belichick · North Carolina | New hire | TCU -3.8 | TCU -3.0 | TCU -3.5 | 0.8 pts toward new coach | 0.3 pts toward new coach | 0.5 pts toward returning coach | TCU covered | TCU covered | North Carolina 14, TCU 48 |
| 2025 | 1 | Fresno State at Kansas | Matt Entz · Fresno State | New hire | Kansas -16.2 | Kansas -14.0 | Kansas -14.0 | 2.2 pts toward new coach | 2.2 pts toward new coach | No difference | Kansas covered | Kansas covered | Kansas 31, Fresno State 7 |
| 2025 | 1 | Jacksonville State at UCF | Charles Kelly · Jacksonville State / Scott Frost · UCF | Both teams have first-full-season coaches | UCF -19.4 | UCF -16.5 | UCF -20.5 | Not available | Not available | Not available | Jacksonville State covered | Jacksonville State covered | UCF 17, Jacksonville State 10 |
| 2025 | 1 | Sam Houston at Western Kentucky | Phil Longo · Sam Houston | New hire | Western Kentucky -7.3 | Western Kentucky -9.5 | Western Kentucky -10.0 | 2.2 pts toward returning coach | 2.7 pts toward returning coach | 0.5 pts toward returning coach | Western Kentucky covered | Western Kentucky covered | Western Kentucky 41, Sam Houston 24 |
| 2025 | 1 | UTEP at Utah State | Bronco Mendenhall · Utah State | New hire | Utah State -5.2 | Utah State -3.5 | Utah State -6.0 | 1.7 pts toward returning coach | 0.8 pts toward new coach | 2.0 pts toward new coach | Utah State covered | Utah State covered | Utah State 28, UTEP 16 |
| 2025 | 1 | Central Michigan at San José State | Matt Drinkall · Central Michigan | New hire | San José State -14.7 | San José State -11.5 | San José State -14.0 | 3.2 pts toward new coach | 0.7 pts toward new coach | 2.2 pts toward returning coach | Central Michigan covered | Central Michigan covered | San José State 14, Central Michigan 16 |
| 2025 | 1 | App State at Charlotte | Dowell Loggains · App State / Tim Albin · Charlotte | Both teams have first-full-season coaches | App State -10.0 | App State -8.0 | App State -3.0 | Not available | Not available | Not available | App State covered | App State covered | Charlotte 11, App State 34 |
| 2025 | 1 | Rice at Louisiana | Scott Abell · Rice | New hire | Louisiana -16.0 | Louisiana -14.0 | Louisiana -10.0 | 2.0 pts toward new coach | 6.0 pts toward new coach | 4.0 pts toward new coach | Rice covered | Rice covered | Louisiana 12, Rice 14 |
| 2025 | 1 | Temple at Massachusetts | K.C. Keeler · Temple / Joe Harasymiak · Massachusetts | Both teams have first-full-season coaches | Temple -2.4 | Temple -3.0 | Temple -2.0 | Not available | Not available | Not available | Temple covered | Temple covered | Massachusetts 10, Temple 42 |
| 2024 | 1 | Western Kentucky at Alabama | Kalen DeBoer · Alabama | New hire | Alabama -26.3 | Alabama -31.0 | Alabama -34.5 | 4.7 pts toward new coach | 8.2 pts toward new coach | 3.5 pts toward new coach | Alabama covered | Alabama covered | Alabama 63, Western Kentucky 0 |
| 2024 | 1 | Notre Dame at Texas A&M | Mike Elko · Texas A&M | New hire | Notre Dame -0.1 | Pick'em | Texas A&M -3.0 | 0.1 pts toward new coach | 3.1 pts toward new coach | 3.0 pts toward new coach | Notre Dame covered | Notre Dame covered | Texas A&M 13, Notre Dame 23 |
| 2024 | 1 | Florida International at Indiana | Curt Cignetti · Indiana | New hire | Indiana -18.9 | Indiana -20.5 | Indiana -26.0 | 1.6 pts toward new coach | 7.1 pts toward new coach | 5.5 pts toward new coach | Indiana covered | Florida International covered | Indiana 31, Florida International 7 |
| 2024 | 1 | Fresno State at Michigan | Tim Skipper · Fresno State / Sherrone Moore · Michigan | Both teams have first-full-season coaches | Michigan -19.6 | Michigan -21.0 | Michigan -21.0 | Not available | Not available | Not available | Fresno State covered | Fresno State covered | Michigan 30, Fresno State 10 |
| 2024 | 1 | Florida Atlantic at Michigan State | Jonathan Smith · Michigan State | New hire | Michigan State -10.8 | Michigan State -11.5 | Michigan State -13.0 | 0.7 pts toward new coach | 2.2 pts toward new coach | 1.2 pts toward new coach | Florida Atlantic covered | Florida Atlantic covered | Michigan State 16, Florida Atlantic 10 |
| 2024 | 1 | UTEP at Nebraska | Scotty Walden · UTEP | New hire | Nebraska -27.4 | Nebraska -27.5 | Nebraska -27.5 | 0.1 pts toward returning coach | 0.1 pts toward returning coach | No difference | Nebraska covered | Nebraska covered | Nebraska 40, UTEP 7 |
| 2024 | 1 | UCLA at Hawai'i | Deshaun Foster · UCLA | New hire | UCLA -13.1 | UCLA -13.5 | UCLA -13.5 | 0.4 pts toward new coach | 0.4 pts toward new coach | No difference | Hawai'i covered | Hawai'i covered | Hawai'i 13, UCLA 16 |
| 2024 | 1 | Georgia State at Georgia Tech | Dell McGee · Georgia State | New hire | Georgia Tech -21.6 | Georgia Tech -20.5 | Georgia Tech -20.0 | 1.1 pts toward new coach | 1.6 pts toward new coach | 0.5 pts toward new coach | Georgia Tech covered | Georgia Tech covered | Georgia Tech 35, Georgia State 12 |
| 2024 | 1 | Ohio at Syracuse | Fran Brown · Syracuse | New hire | Syracuse -17.7 | Syracuse -16.5 | Syracuse -17.0 | 1.2 pts toward returning coach | 0.7 pts toward returning coach | 1.0 pts toward new coach | Ohio covered | Ohio covered | Syracuse 38, Ohio 22 |
| 2024 | 1 | Boston College at Florida State | Bill O'Brien · Boston College | New hire | Florida State -22.1 | Florida State -21.5 | Florida State -16.5 | 0.6 pts toward new coach | 5.6 pts toward new coach | 5.0 pts toward new coach | Boston College covered | Boston College covered | Florida State 13, Boston College 28 |
| 2024 | 1 | New Mexico at Arizona | Brent Brennan · Arizona | New hire | Arizona -32.9 | Arizona -30.5 | Arizona -28.0 | 2.4 pts toward returning coach | 4.9 pts toward returning coach | 2.0 pts toward returning coach | New Mexico covered | New Mexico covered | Arizona 61, New Mexico 39 |
| 2024 | 1 | Wyoming at Arizona State | Jay Sawvel · Wyoming | New hire | Arizona State -8.4 | Arizona State -6.5 | Arizona State -6.5 | 1.9 pts toward new coach | 1.9 pts toward new coach | No difference | Arizona State covered | Arizona State covered | Arizona State 48, Wyoming 7 |
| 2024 | 1 | UNLV at Houston | Willie Fritz · Houston | New hire | Houston -5.3 | Houston -2.5 | Houston -3.5 | 2.8 pts toward returning coach | 1.8 pts toward returning coach | 1.0 pts toward new coach | UNLV covered | UNLV covered | Houston 7, UNLV 27 |
| 2024 | 1 | SMU at Nevada | Jeff Choate · Nevada | New hire | SMU -24.9 | SMU -25.0 | SMU -28.0 | 0.1 pts toward returning coach | 3.1 pts toward returning coach | 3.0 pts toward returning coach | Nevada covered | Nevada covered | Nevada 24, SMU 29 |
| 2024 | 1 | Boise State at Georgia Southern | Spencer Danielson · Boise State | Interim (4 prior games); first full season | Boise State -14.0 | Boise State -11.2 | Boise State -13.0 | 2.8 pts toward returning coach | 1.0 pts toward returning coach | 1.5 pts toward new coach | Georgia Southern covered | Georgia Southern covered | Georgia Southern 45, Boise State 56 |
| 2024 | 1 | Nevada at Troy | Gerad Parker · Troy | New hire | Troy -12.4 | Troy -15.5 | Troy -7.5 | 3.1 pts toward new coach | 4.9 pts toward returning coach | 8.0 pts toward returning coach | Nevada covered | Nevada covered | Troy 26, Nevada 28 |
| 2024 | 1 | James Madison at Charlotte | Bob Chesney · James Madison | New hire | James Madison -4.8 | James Madison -9.0 | James Madison -7.0 | 4.2 pts toward new coach | 2.2 pts toward new coach | 2.0 pts toward returning coach | James Madison covered | James Madison covered | Charlotte 7, James Madison 30 |
| 2024 | 1 | North Texas at South Alabama | Major Applewhite · South Alabama | New hire | South Alabama -4.5 | South Alabama -7.0 | South Alabama -6.0 | 2.5 pts toward new coach | 1.5 pts toward new coach | 1.0 pts toward returning coach | North Texas covered | North Texas covered | South Alabama 38, North Texas 52 |
| 2023 | 1 | Nebraska at Minnesota | Matt Rhule · Nebraska | New hire | Minnesota -6.5 | Minnesota -6.5 | Minnesota -7.5 | No difference | 1.0 pts toward returning coach | 1.0 pts toward returning coach | Nebraska covered | Nebraska covered | Minnesota 13, Nebraska 10 |
| 2023 | 1 | Massachusetts at Auburn | Hugh Freeze · Auburn | New hire | Auburn -43.2 | Auburn -39.0 | Auburn -35.2 | 4.2 pts toward returning coach | 7.9 pts toward returning coach | 4.0 pts toward returning coach | Auburn covered | Auburn covered | Auburn 59, Massachusetts 14 |
| 2023 | 1 | Bowling Green at Liberty | Jamey Chadwell · Liberty | New hire | Liberty -13.0 | Liberty -12.0 | Liberty -8.0 | 1.0 pts toward returning coach | 5.0 pts toward returning coach | 4.2 pts toward returning coach | Bowling Green covered | Liberty covered | Liberty 34, Bowling Green 24 |
| 2023 | 1 | Fresno State at Purdue | Ryan Walters · Purdue | New hire | Purdue -8.6 | Purdue -5.5 | Purdue -4.0 | 3.1 pts toward returning coach | 4.6 pts toward returning coach | 1.5 pts toward returning coach | Fresno State covered | Fresno State covered | Purdue 35, Fresno State 39 |
| 2023 | 1 | Northwestern at Rutgers | David Braun · Northwestern | New hire | Rutgers -8.4 | Rutgers -7.0 | Rutgers -5.5 | 1.4 pts toward new coach | 2.9 pts toward new coach | 1.2 pts toward new coach | Rutgers covered | Rutgers covered | Rutgers 24, Northwestern 7 |
| 2023 | 1 | Buffalo at Wisconsin | Luke Fickell · Wisconsin | Interim (89 prior games); first full season | Wisconsin -30.6 | Wisconsin -24.0 | Wisconsin -28.5 | 6.6 pts toward returning coach | 2.1 pts toward returning coach | 4.5 pts toward new coach | Buffalo covered | Buffalo covered | Wisconsin 38, Buffalo 17 |
| 2023 | 1 | South Florida at Western Kentucky | Alex Golesh · South Florida | New hire | Western Kentucky -11.8 | Western Kentucky -13.5 | Western Kentucky -13.0 | 1.7 pts toward returning coach | 1.2 pts toward returning coach | 0.5 pts toward new coach | Western Kentucky covered | Western Kentucky covered | Western Kentucky 41, South Florida 24 |
| 2023 | 1 | Stanford at Hawai'i | Troy Taylor · Stanford | New hire | Stanford -15.2 | Stanford -9.0 | Stanford -2.5 | 6.2 pts toward returning coach | 12.7 pts toward returning coach | 6.5 pts toward returning coach | Stanford covered | Stanford covered | Hawai'i 24, Stanford 37 |
| 2023 | 1 | California at North Texas | Eric Morris · North Texas | New hire | California -8.0 | California -9.0 | California -5.0 | 1.0 pts toward returning coach | 3.0 pts toward new coach | 4.0 pts toward new coach | California covered | California covered | North Texas 21, California 58 |
| 2023 | 1 | Colorado at TCU | Deion Sanders · Colorado | New hire | TCU -18.5 | TCU -20.0 | TCU -21.0 | 1.5 pts toward returning coach | 2.5 pts toward returning coach | 1.0 pts toward returning coach | Colorado covered | Colorado covered | TCU 42, Colorado 45 |
| 2023 | 1 | Coastal Carolina at UCLA | Tim Beck · Coastal Carolina | New hire | UCLA -16.5 | UCLA -16.0 | UCLA -15.5 | 0.5 pts toward new coach | 1.0 pts toward new coach | 0.5 pts toward new coach | Coastal Carolina covered | Coastal Carolina covered | UCLA 27, Coastal Carolina 13 |
| 2023 | 1 | Navy at Notre Dame | Brian Newberry · Navy | New hire | Notre Dame -20.7 | Notre Dame -20.0 | Notre Dame -20.5 | 0.7 pts toward new coach | 0.2 pts toward new coach | 0.8 pts toward returning coach | Notre Dame covered | Notre Dame covered | Notre Dame 42, Navy 3 |
| 2023 | 1 | Louisville at Georgia Tech | Jeff Brohm · Louisville / Brent Key · Georgia Tech | Both teams have first-full-season coaches | Louisville -11.8 | Louisville -8.0 | Louisville -7.5 | Not available | Not available | Not available | Georgia Tech covered | Georgia Tech covered | Georgia Tech 34, Louisville 39 |
| 2023 | 1 | Kent State at UCF | Kenni Burns · Kent State | New hire | UCF -37.1 | UCF -33.8 | UCF -35.5 | 3.3 pts toward new coach | 1.6 pts toward new coach | 1.5 pts toward returning coach | UCF covered | UCF covered | UCF 56, Kent State 6 |
| 2023 | 1 | Texas State at Baylor | G.J. Kinne · Texas State | New hire | Baylor -28.2 | Baylor -26.0 | Baylor -27.0 | 2.2 pts toward new coach | 1.2 pts toward new coach | 1.0 pts toward returning coach | Texas State covered | Texas State covered | Baylor 31, Texas State 42 |
| 2022 | 1 | Vanderbilt at Hawai'i | Timmy Chang · Hawai'i | New hire | Vanderbilt -2.4 | Vanderbilt -7.0 | Vanderbilt -9.0 | 4.6 pts toward returning coach | 6.6 pts toward returning coach | 2.5 pts toward returning coach | Vanderbilt covered | Vanderbilt covered | Hawai'i 10, Vanderbilt 63 |
| 2022 | 1 | Utah at Florida | Billy Napier · Florida | New hire | Utah -0.8 | Utah -2.5 | Utah -2.5 | 1.7 pts toward returning coach | 1.7 pts toward returning coach | 0.2 pts toward returning coach | Florida covered | Florida covered | Florida 29, Utah 26 |
| 2022 | 1 | Oregon at Georgia | Dan Lanning · Oregon | New hire | Georgia -16.7 | Georgia -17.5 | Georgia -16.0 | 0.8 pts toward returning coach | 0.7 pts toward new coach | 1.5 pts toward new coach | Georgia covered | Georgia covered | Georgia 49, Oregon 3 |
| 2022 | 1 | Troy at Ole Miss | Jon Sumrall · Troy | New hire | Ole Miss -21.2 | Ole Miss -24.0 | Ole Miss -21.5 | 2.8 pts toward returning coach | 0.3 pts toward returning coach | 2.5 pts toward new coach | Troy covered | Troy covered | Ole Miss 28, Troy 10 |
| 2022 | 1 | LSU at Florida State | Brian Kelly · LSU | New hire | LSU -5.9 | LSU -3.0 | LSU -4.0 | 2.9 pts toward returning coach | 1.9 pts toward returning coach | 1.0 pts toward new coach | Florida State covered | Florida State covered | Florida State 24, LSU 23 |
| 2022 | 1 | TCU at Colorado | Sonny Dykes · TCU | New hire | TCU -6.9 | TCU -11.0 | TCU -13.5 | 4.1 pts toward new coach | 6.6 pts toward new coach | 2.8 pts toward new coach | TCU covered | TCU covered | Colorado 13, TCU 38 |
| 2022 | 1 | Kent State at Washington | Kalen DeBoer · Washington | New hire | Washington -16.9 | Washington -21.5 | Washington -23.5 | 4.6 pts toward new coach | 6.6 pts toward new coach | 2.0 pts toward new coach | Washington covered | Washington covered | Washington 45, Kent State 20 |
| 2022 | 1 | Notre Dame at Ohio State | Marcus Freeman · Notre Dame | Interim (1 prior game); first full season | Ohio State -17.8 | Ohio State -14.5 | Ohio State -17.0 | 3.3 pts toward new coach | 0.8 pts toward new coach | 2.5 pts toward returning coach | Notre Dame covered | Notre Dame covered | Ohio State 21, Notre Dame 10 |
| 2022 | 1 | UConn at Utah State | Jim Mora · UConn | New hire | Utah State -29.0 | Utah State -27.5 | Utah State -24.0 | 1.5 pts toward new coach | 5.0 pts toward new coach | 3.5 pts toward new coach | UConn covered | UConn covered | Utah State 31, UConn 20 |
| 2022 | 1 | Colorado State at Michigan | Jay Norvell · Colorado State | New hire | Michigan -25.1 | Michigan -27.5 | Michigan -31.0 | 2.4 pts toward returning coach | 5.9 pts toward returning coach | 3.0 pts toward returning coach | Michigan covered | Michigan covered | Michigan 51, Colorado State 7 |
| 2022 | 1 | Nevada at New Mexico State | Ken Wilson · Nevada / Jerry Kill · New Mexico State | Both teams have first-full-season coaches | Nevada -19.5 | Nevada -12.0 | Nevada -7.0 | Not available | Not available | Not available | New Mexico State covered | Nevada covered | New Mexico State 12, Nevada 23 |
| 2022 | 1 | Temple at Duke | Stan Drayton · Temple / Mike Elko · Duke | Both teams have first-full-season coaches | Duke -8.6 | Duke -7.5 | Duke -9.5 | Not available | Not available | Not available | Duke covered | Duke covered | Duke 30, Temple 0 |
| 2022 | 1 | Massachusetts at Tulane | Don Brown · Massachusetts | New hire | Tulane -27.4 | Tulane -30.0 | Tulane -28.5 | 2.6 pts toward returning coach | 1.1 pts toward returning coach | 1.5 pts toward new coach | Tulane covered | Tulane covered | Tulane 42, Massachusetts 10 |
| 2022 | 1 | Virginia Tech at Old Dominion | Brent Pry · Virginia Tech | New hire | Virginia Tech -10.3 | Virginia Tech -8.0 | Virginia Tech -6.0 | 2.3 pts toward returning coach | 4.3 pts toward returning coach | 2.0 pts toward returning coach | Old Dominion covered | Old Dominion covered | Old Dominion 20, Virginia Tech 17 |
| 2022 | 1 | Louisiana Tech at Missouri | Sonny Cumbie · Louisiana Tech | New hire | Missouri -15.8 | Missouri -20.0 | Missouri -20.0 | 4.2 pts toward returning coach | 4.2 pts toward returning coach | No difference | Missouri covered | Missouri covered | Missouri 52, Louisiana Tech 24 |
| 2022 | 1 | SMU at North Texas | Rhett Lashlee · SMU | New hire | SMU -7.5 | SMU -9.5 | SMU -9.5 | 2.0 pts toward new coach | 2.0 pts toward new coach | No difference | SMU covered | SMU covered | North Texas 10, SMU 48 |
| 2022 | 1 | Rice at USC | Lincoln Riley · USC | New hire | USC -34.1 | USC -35.0 | USC -32.5 | 0.9 pts toward new coach | 1.6 pts toward returning coach | 2.5 pts toward returning coach | USC covered | USC covered | USC 66, Rice 14 |
| 2022 | 1 | UTEP at Oklahoma | Brent Venables · Oklahoma | New hire | Oklahoma -30.9 | Oklahoma -32.5 | Oklahoma -31.0 | 1.6 pts toward new coach | 0.1 pts toward new coach | 1.0 pts toward returning coach | UTEP covered | Oklahoma covered | Oklahoma 45, UTEP 13 |
| 2021 | 1 | Akron at Auburn | Bryan Harsin · Auburn | New hire | Auburn -38.3 | Auburn -36.5 | Auburn -37.0 | 1.8 pts toward returning coach | 1.3 pts toward returning coach | 0.2 pts toward new coach | Auburn covered | Auburn covered | Auburn 60, Akron 10 |
| 2021 | 1 | UL Monroe at Kentucky | Terry Bowden · UL Monroe | New hire | Kentucky -33.8 | Kentucky -29.5 | Kentucky -31.2 | 4.3 pts toward new coach | 2.5 pts toward new coach | 1.8 pts toward returning coach | Kentucky covered | Kentucky covered | Kentucky 45, UL Monroe 10 |
| 2021 | 1 | Bowling Green at Tennessee | Josh Heupel · Tennessee | New hire | Tennessee -34.8 | Tennessee -33.0 | Tennessee -37.0 | 1.8 pts toward returning coach | 2.2 pts toward new coach | 4.0 pts toward new coach | Bowling Green covered | Bowling Green covered | Tennessee 38, Bowling Green 6 |
| 2021 | 1 | Marshall at Navy | Charles Huff · Marshall | New hire | Pick'em | Marshall -2.5 | Marshall -3.0 | 2.5 pts toward new coach | 3.0 pts toward new coach | 0.5 pts toward new coach | Marshall covered | Marshall covered | Navy 7, Marshall 49 |
| 2021 | 1 | Southern Miss at South Alabama | Will Hall · Southern Miss / Kane Wommack · South Alabama | Both teams have first-full-season coaches | Southern Miss -0.5 | Southern Miss -1.5 | South Alabama -2.2 | Not available | Not available | Not available | South Alabama covered | South Alabama covered | South Alabama 31, Southern Miss 7 |
| 2021 | 1 | Syracuse at Ohio | Tim Albin · Ohio | New hire | Ohio -1.3 | Syracuse -1.0 | Ohio -2.0 | 2.3 pts toward returning coach | 0.7 pts toward new coach | 3.0 pts toward new coach | Syracuse covered | Syracuse covered | Ohio 9, Syracuse 29 |
| 2021 | 1 | Nebraska at Illinois | Bret Bielema · Illinois | New hire | Nebraska -9.2 | Nebraska -7.0 | Nebraska -6.5 | 2.2 pts toward new coach | 2.7 pts toward new coach | 0.5 pts toward new coach | Illinois covered | Illinois covered | Illinois 30, Nebraska 22 |
| 2021 | 1 | Louisiana at Texas | Steve Sarkisian · Texas | New hire | Texas -11.0 | Texas -9.5 | Texas -8.5 | 1.5 pts toward returning coach | 2.5 pts toward returning coach | 1.0 pts toward returning coach | Texas covered | Texas covered | Texas 38, Louisiana 18 |
| 2021 | 1 | Boise State at UCF | Andy Avalos · Boise State / Gus Malzahn · UCF | Both teams have first-full-season coaches | UCF -8.7 | UCF -4.0 | UCF -6.5 | Not available | Not available | Not available | UCF covered | Boise State covered | UCF 36, Boise State 31 |
| 2021 | 1 | Utah State at Washington State | Blake Anderson · Utah State | New hire | Washington State -29.4 | Washington State -16.5 | Washington State -17.0 | 12.9 pts toward new coach | 12.4 pts toward new coach | 0.5 pts toward returning coach | Utah State covered | Utah State covered | Washington State 23, Utah State 26 |
| 2021 | 1 | BYU at Arizona | Jedd Fisch · Arizona | New hire | BYU -8.7 | BYU -11.5 | BYU -13.5 | 2.8 pts toward returning coach | 4.8 pts toward returning coach | 2.0 pts toward returning coach | Arizona covered | Arizona covered | Arizona 16, BYU 24 |
| 2019 | 1 | Miami at Florida | Manny Diaz · Miami | New hire | Florida -7.8 | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Florida 24, Miami 20 |
| 2019 | 1 | South Carolina at North Carolina | Mack Brown · North Carolina | New hire | South Carolina -9.3 | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | North Carolina 24, South Carolina 20 |
| 2019 | 1 | Texas State at Texas A&M | Jake Spavital · Texas State | New hire | Texas A&M -34.1 | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Texas A&M 41, Texas State 7 |
| 2019 | 1 | Georgia Tech at Clemson | Geoff Collins · Georgia Tech | New hire | Clemson -38.6 | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Clemson 52, Georgia Tech 14 |
| 2019 | 1 | Houston at Oklahoma | Dana Holgorsen · Houston | New hire | Oklahoma -19.2 | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Oklahoma 49, Houston 31 |
| 2019 | 1 | Akron at Illinois | Tom Arth · Akron | New hire | Illinois -19.8 | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Illinois 42, Akron 3 |
| 2019 | 1 | Florida Atlantic at Ohio State | Ryan Day · Ohio State | Interim (3 prior games); first full season | Ohio State -29.8 | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Ohio State 45, Florida Atlantic 21 |
| 2019 | 1 | Massachusetts at Rutgers | Walt Bell · Massachusetts | New hire | Rutgers -16.6 | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Rutgers 48, Massachusetts 21 |
| 2019 | 1 | Utah State at Wake Forest | Gary Andersen · Utah State | New hire | Wake Forest -3.0 | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Wake Forest 38, Utah State 35 |
| 2019 | 1 | East Carolina at NC State | Mike Houston · East Carolina | New hire | NC State -23.7 | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | NC State 34, East Carolina 6 |
| 2019 | 1 | Syracuse at Liberty | Hugh Freeze · Liberty | New hire | Syracuse -15.2 | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Liberty 0, Syracuse 24 |
| 2019 | 1 | Notre Dame at Louisville | Scott Satterfield · Louisville | New hire | Notre Dame -17.2 | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Louisville 17, Notre Dame 35 |
| 2019 | 1 | Colorado State at Colorado | Mel Tucker · Colorado | New hire | Colorado -15.4 | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Colorado 52, Colorado State 31 |
| 2019 | 1 | Eastern Michigan at Coastal Carolina | Jamey Chadwell · Coastal Carolina | New hire | Eastern Michigan -7.2 | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Coastal Carolina 23, Eastern Michigan 30 |
| 2018 | 1 | Louisville at Alabama | Lorenzo Ward · Louisville | New hire | Alabama -15.0 | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Alabama 51, Louisville 14 |
| 2018 | 1 | Coastal Carolina at South Carolina | Joe Moglia · Coastal Carolina | New hire | South Carolina -29.7 | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | South Carolina 49, Coastal Carolina 15 |
| 2018 | 1 | West Virginia at Tennessee | Jeremy Pruitt · Tennessee | New hire | West Virginia -14.7 | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Tennessee 14, West Virginia 40 |
| 2018 | 1 | BYU at Arizona | Kevin Sumlin · Arizona | New hire | Arizona -13.8 | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Arizona 23, BYU 28 |
| 2018 | 1 | UTSA at Arizona State | Herm Edwards · Arizona State | New hire | Arizona State -20.3 | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Arizona State 49, UTSA 7 |
| 2018 | 1 | Cincinnati at UCLA | Chip Kelly · UCLA | New hire | UCLA -23.2 | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | UCLA 17, Cincinnati 26 |
| 2018 | 1 | Bowling Green at Oregon | Mario Cristobal · Oregon | New hire | Oregon -26.0 | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Oregon 58, Bowling Green 24 |
| 2018 | 1 | Oregon State at Ohio State | Jonathan Smith · Oregon State | New hire | Ohio State -39.5 | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Ohio State 77, Oregon State 31 |
| 2018 | 1 | Kent State at Illinois | Sean Lewis · Kent State | New hire | Illinois -19.7 | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Illinois 31, Kent State 24 |
| 2018 | 1 | Texas at Maryland | Matt Canada · Maryland | New hire | Texas -18.1 | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Maryland 34, Texas 29 |
| 2018 | 1 | Virginia Tech at Florida State | Willie Taggart · Florida State | New hire | Florida State -6.9 | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Florida State 3, Virginia Tech 24 |
| 2018 | 1 | Louisiana Tech at South Alabama | Steve Campbell · South Alabama | New hire | Louisiana Tech -11.0 | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | South Alabama 26, Louisiana Tech 30 |
| 2018 | 1 | SMU at North Texas | Sonny Dykes · SMU | New hire | SMU -0.5 | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | North Texas 46, SMU 23 |
| 2018 | 1 | UCF at UConn | Josh Heupel · UCF | New hire | UCF -22.1 | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | UConn 17, UCF 56 |
| 2018 | 2 | Colorado at Nebraska | Scott Frost · Nebraska | New hire | Nebraska -12.4 | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Nebraska 28, Colorado 33 |
| 2017 | 1 | BYU at LSU | Ed Orgeron · LSU | Interim (51 prior games); first full season | LSU -10.6 | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | LSU 27, BYU 0 |
| 2017 | 1 | South Alabama at Ole Miss | Matt Luke · Ole Miss | New hire | Ole Miss -26.5 | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Ole Miss 47, South Alabama 27 |
| 2017 | 1 | UTEP at Oklahoma | Lincoln Riley · Oklahoma | New hire | Oklahoma -51.0 | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Oklahoma 56, UTEP 7 |
| 2017 | 1 | Maryland at Texas | Tom Herman · Texas | New hire | Texas -20.3 | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Texas 41, Maryland 51 |
| 2017 | 1 | Temple at Notre Dame | Geoff Collins · Temple | New hire | Notre Dame -15.7 | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Notre Dame 49, Temple 16 |
| 2017 | 1 | Ohio State at Indiana | Tom Allen · Indiana | Interim (1 prior game); first full season | Ohio State -24.1 | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Indiana 21, Ohio State 49 |
| 2017 | 1 | Buffalo at Minnesota | P.J. Fleck · Minnesota | New hire | Minnesota -26.2 | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Minnesota 17, Buffalo 7 |
| 2017 | 1 | Nevada at Northwestern | Jay Norvell · Nevada | New hire | Northwestern -23.4 | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Northwestern 31, Nevada 20 |
| 2017 | 1 | Louisville at Purdue | Jeff Brohm · Purdue | New hire | Louisville -21.9 | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Purdue 28, Louisville 35 |
| 2017 | 1 | Western Michigan at USC | Tim Lester · Western Michigan | New hire | USC -22.3 | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | USC 49, Western Michigan 31 |
| 2017 | 1 | California at North Carolina | Justin Wilcox · California | New hire | North Carolina -9.9 | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | North Carolina 30, California 35 |
| 2017 | 1 | Florida International at UCF | Butch Davis · Florida International | New hire | UCF -25.0 | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | UCF 61, Florida International 17 |
| 2017 | 1 | Navy at Florida Atlantic | Lane Kiffin · Florida Atlantic | New hire | Navy -18.4 | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Florida Atlantic 19, Navy 42 |
| 2017 | 1 | South Florida at San José State | Charlie Strong · South Florida / Brent Brennan · San José State | Both teams have first-full-season coaches | South Florida -28.1 | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | San José State 22, South Florida 42 |
| 2017 | 2 | Houston at Arizona | Major Applewhite · Houston | Interim (1 prior game); first full season | Houston -6.2 | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Not available | Arizona 16, Houston 19 |
124 of 124 records shownFBS-FBS season openers · 2017–19 and 2021–25 · 2020 excluded · canonical Factor research panel v3 · corrected preseason-known schedule contract · market states shown only where audited observations exist · 112 directional games and 12 both-new or net-neutral games
No historical records match that search.