Offense#32
+4.9vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play0.10 #102 FBSSuccess rate38.2% #115 FBS
SEC · #25 of 138
South Carolina
Implied Strength+12.7vs. FBS average · ±4.0
Record2–0through completed games
Playoff Odds6%make the 12-team field
Conference Title1%win SEC
Strength of Schedule15thof 138 FBS teams
Schedule lens
What matters next
The headline numbers are above. Here is where the season starts to take shape.
Next matchupvs. Mississippi StateWeek 3 · OV Line SC -6.5 · 70% win chance →Toughest remaining test#6 GeorgiaWeek 12 · 21% site win chance · View matchup →
Team identity
Where the strength lives
Defense projects as the stronger unit by 3.0 rating points.
Defense#17
+7.8vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play allowed0.08 #29 FBSSuccess rate allowed41.8% #71 FBS
2025 PPA (predicted points added per play) and success rate. How this split works →
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Season outlook · 50,000 simulations
How South Carolina's 2026 could unfold
The current projection is 6–6 (6.4 expected wins), with a 6% chance to reach the playoff. The distribution below shows how often each regular-season win total appeared across the schedule-aware simulations.
Range of outcomes
Projected win distribution
Most common and median 6 winsCentral 80% 4–9 winsBowl eligible 70.0%
Simulated (schedule-aware)Central 80% rangeMarket win total
Postseason path
2026 playoff outlook
6.0%Make the 12-team field
Still outside the median outcome across the schedule-aware simulations.
How the field is reached6.0% total
Auto-bid0.7%
At-large5.3%
Outside field94.0%
Conference title0.7%
What could move the outlook
Biggest questions
Unresolved does not mean negative. A point estimate appears only when the historical evidence supports one.
No major preseason uncertainty signals currently clear the display threshold for South Carolina. We will update this view as matchup and in-season evidence develops.
Projection contextRoster, continuity, and market inputsView details
The market win total, returning production, coaching continuity, transfer talent, and recent NFL production help explain the evidence surrounding this projection.
Returning Production69.0%share of prior-year PPA returning for 2026
2026 Transfer Class35thof 138 FBS teams by combined portal talent
Recent NFL Draft Production26thof 138 FBS teams by NFL talent produced
Market win total6.3Consensus preseason line
Final · Sep 5Suggested side did not cover
Spread:SC -35vs.SC -35.5
1 FactorKent State at South Carolina · Columbia, SC · Williams-Brice Stadium
12:00 AM · Oct 3
Kentucky at South Carolina · Columbia, SC · Williams-Brice Stadium — FLEX: 3:30 - 4:30pm OR 6 - 8pm ET start
12:00 AM · Oct 10
South Carolina at Florida · Gainesville, FL · Ben Hill Griffin Stadium — EARLY: Noon - 1pm ET start
12:00 AM · Oct 24
Tennessee at South Carolina · Columbia, SC · Williams-Brice Stadium — AFTERNOON: 3:30 - 4:30pm ET start
11:00 PM · Oct 30
South Carolina at Oklahoma · Norman, OK · Memorial Stadium (Norman, OK) — FLEX: 3:30 - 4:30pm OR 6 - 8pm ET start
12:00 AM · Nov 7
Texas A&M at South Carolina · Columbia, SC · Williams-Brice Stadium — AFTERNOON: 3:30 - 4:30pm ET start
11:00 PM · Nov 13
South Carolina at Arkansas · Fayetteville, AR · Razorback Stadium — FLEX: 3:30 - 4:30pm OR 6 - 8pm ET start
12:00 AM · Nov 21
Georgia at South Carolina · Columbia, SC · Williams-Brice Stadium — FLEX: 3:30 - 4:30pm OR 6 - 8pm ET start
Pregame evidence · 2022–25
South Carolina through the lens
The OV Line is the aggregate-rating baseline. The market gap shows where the game-level consensus differed, while identified Factors show how much of that difference our research may explain. ATS records are descriptive context—not a claim that OV should outperform the market.
Market ATS58%25–18 against consensus
Average line gap3.2 pts53% inside 3 points · 23 of 43
Factor coverage35%15 of 43 games
Factor signals53% aligned8 of 15 individual observations · 0 neutral
Historical sample43 gamesmarket-covered games from 2022–25
Explanatory history
Factors present in South Carolina games
| Factor | Games | Average estimate | Aligned with market | Research status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty | 7 | 0.2 pts toward opponents | 43%3 of 7 directional cases | Supported · wider uncertainty |
| Rest Differential | 7 | 0.1 pts toward South Carolina | 71%5 of 7 directional cases | Supported |
| Neutral-Site Same-State Context | 1 | 1.0 pts toward opponents | 0%0 of 1 directional cases | Supported · wider uncertainty |
Underlying recordInspect all 43 historical gamesView games
| Season | Game | OV baseline | Market | Market gap | Identified adjustment | Remaining gap | Result | Market ATS | Factors |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 · W14 | vs. ClemsonHome | South Carolina -1 | South Carolina -2.5 | 1.7 pts toward South Carolina | None identified | 1.7 pts toward South Carolina | L 14–28 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W13 | vs. Coastal CarolinaHome | South Carolina -28 | South Carolina -24 | 3.8 pts toward opponents | 3.6 pts toward opponents | 0.2 pts toward opponents | W 51–7 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W12 | at Texas A&MAway | South Carolina +17.5 | South Carolina +16.5 | 1.1 pts toward South Carolina | 1.7 pts toward South Carolina | 0.6 pts toward opponents | L 30–31 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W10 | at Ole MissAway | South Carolina +12 | South Carolina +13 | 1.0 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.0 pts toward opponents | L 14–30 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W9 | vs. AlabamaHome | South Carolina +10 | South Carolina +11.5 | 1.3 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.3 pts toward opponents | L 22–29 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W8 | vs. OklahomaHome | South Carolina +4.5 | South Carolina +4.5 | 0.2 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.2 pts toward opponents | L 7–26 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W7 | at LSUAway | South Carolina +15 | South Carolina +8.5 | 6.5 pts toward South Carolina | None identified | 6.5 pts toward South Carolina | L 10–20 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W5 | vs. KentuckyHome | South Carolina -5.5 | South Carolina -5.5 | 0.1 pts toward South Carolina | 1.8 pts toward opponents | 1.9 pts toward South Carolina | W 35–13 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W4 | at MissouriAway | South Carolina +15 | South Carolina +10 | 5.1 pts toward South Carolina | None identified | 5.1 pts toward South Carolina | L 20–29 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W3 | vs. VanderbiltHome | South Carolina -6 | South Carolina -3 | 2.8 pts toward opponents | None identified | 2.8 pts toward opponents | L 7–31 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W2 | vs. South Carolina StateHome | South Carolina -39 | South Carolina -43 | 3.7 pts toward South Carolina | 0.6 pts toward South Carolina | 3.1 pts toward South Carolina | W 38–10 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W1 | vs. Virginia TechNeutral | South Carolina -11.5 | South Carolina -7.5 | 3.9 pts toward opponents | None identified | 3.9 pts toward opponents | W 24–11 | W | None identified |
| 2024 · W14 | at ClemsonAway | South Carolina +4 | South Carolina +2.5 | 1.5 pts toward South Carolina | None identified | 1.5 pts toward South Carolina | W 17–14 | W | None identified |
| 2024 · W13 | vs. WoffordHome | South Carolina -55 | South Carolina -42.5 | 12.6 pts toward opponents | 5.2 pts toward opponents | 7.4 pts toward opponents | W 56–12 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2024 · W12 | vs. MissouriHome | South Carolina -7 | South Carolina -10.5 | 3.4 pts toward South Carolina | None identified | 3.4 pts toward South Carolina | W 34–30 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W11 | at VanderbiltAway | South Carolina -7 | South Carolina -6 | 1.0 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.0 pts toward opponents | W 28–7 | W | None identified |
| 2024 · W10 | vs. Texas A&MHome | South Carolina +3.5 | South Carolina +3 | 0.7 pts toward South Carolina | 1.1 pts toward South Carolina | 0.4 pts toward opponents | W 44–20 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2024 · W8 | at OklahomaAway | South Carolina +5.5 | South Carolina -1 | 6.5 pts toward South Carolina | None identified | 6.5 pts toward South Carolina | W 35–9 | W | None identified |
| 2024 · W7 | at AlabamaAway | South Carolina +19 | South Carolina +21 | 2.1 pts toward opponents | None identified | 2.1 pts toward opponents | L 25–27 | W | None identified |
| 2024 · W6 | vs. Ole MissHome | South Carolina +12 | South Carolina +10 | 1.9 pts toward South Carolina | 1.0 pts toward South Carolina | 0.9 pts toward South Carolina | L 3–27 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2024 · W3 | vs. LSUHome | South Carolina +7.5 | South Carolina +6.5 | 0.8 pts toward South Carolina | None identified | 0.8 pts toward South Carolina | L 33–36 | W | None identified |
| 2024 · W2 | at KentuckyAway | South Carolina +19 | South Carolina +9.5 | 9.4 pts toward South Carolina | None identified | 9.4 pts toward South Carolina | W 31–6 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W13 | vs. ClemsonHome | South Carolina +6.5 | South Carolina +7.5 | 1.2 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.2 pts toward opponents | L 7–16 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W12 | vs. KentuckyHome | South Carolina +1.5 | South Carolina -2.5 | 3.9 pts toward South Carolina | None identified | 3.9 pts toward South Carolina | W 17–14 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W11 | vs. VanderbiltHome | South Carolina -14 | South Carolina -13.5 | 0.3 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.3 pts toward opponents | W 47–6 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W9 | at Texas A&MAway | South Carolina +14 | South Carolina +17 | 2.9 pts toward opponents | 1.1 pts toward opponents | 1.8 pts toward opponents | L 17–30 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2023 · W8 | at MissouriAway | South Carolina +5.5 | South Carolina +7.5 | 1.9 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.9 pts toward opponents | L 12–34 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W7 | vs. FloridaHome | South Carolina -1.5 | South Carolina 0 | 1.6 pts toward opponents | 1.1 pts toward South Carolina | 2.6 pts toward opponents | L 39–41 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2023 · W5 | at TennesseeAway | South Carolina +9.5 | South Carolina +12.5 | 3.2 pts toward opponents | None identified | 3.2 pts toward opponents | L 20–41 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W4 | vs. Mississippi StateHome | South Carolina 0 | South Carolina -6 | 5.8 pts toward South Carolina | None identified | 5.8 pts toward South Carolina | W 37–30 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W3 | at GeorgiaAway | South Carolina +23.5 | South Carolina +26.5 | 2.8 pts toward opponents | 2.4 pts toward South Carolina | 5.2 pts toward opponents | L 14–24 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2023 · W2 | vs. FurmanHome | South Carolina -24 | South Carolina -18 | 5.9 pts toward opponents | 1.5 pts toward South Carolina | 7.5 pts toward opponents | W 47–21 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2023 · W1 | vs. North CarolinaNeutral | South Carolina +1.5 | South Carolina -2.5 | 4.0 pts toward South Carolina | 1.0 pts toward opponents | 5.0 pts toward South Carolina | L 17–31 | L | Neutral-Site Same-State Context |
| 2022 · W13 | at ClemsonAway | South Carolina +15.5 | South Carolina +14 | 1.3 pts toward South Carolina | None identified | 1.3 pts toward South Carolina | W 31–30 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W12 | vs. TennesseeHome | South Carolina +19 | South Carolina +22.5 | 3.3 pts toward opponents | None identified | 3.3 pts toward opponents | W 63–38 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W11 | at FloridaAway | South Carolina +9 | South Carolina +8 | 0.9 pts toward South Carolina | None identified | 0.9 pts toward South Carolina | L 6–38 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W10 | at VanderbiltAway | South Carolina -11.5 | South Carolina -6.5 | 5.1 pts toward opponents | 1.1 pts toward opponents | 4.1 pts toward opponents | W 38–27 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2022 · W9 | vs. MissouriHome | South Carolina -9.5 | South Carolina -3.5 | 6.0 pts toward opponents | None identified | 6.0 pts toward opponents | L 10–23 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W8 | vs. Texas A&MHome | South Carolina +2.5 | South Carolina +3 | 0.3 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.3 pts toward opponents | W 30–24 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W6 | at KentuckyAway | South Carolina +8.5 | South Carolina +4.5 | 4.0 pts toward South Carolina | None identified | 4.0 pts toward South Carolina | W 24–14 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W5 | vs. South Carolina StateHome | South Carolina -37.5 | South Carolina -40.5 | 3.2 pts toward South Carolina | 0.1 pts toward opponents | 3.3 pts toward South Carolina | W 50–10 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2022 · W3 | vs. GeorgiaHome | South Carolina +24 | South Carolina +25.5 | 1.4 pts toward opponents | 2.7 pts toward South Carolina | 4.1 pts toward opponents | L 7–48 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2022 · W2 | at ArkansasAway | South Carolina +2.5 | South Carolina +9 | 6.5 pts toward opponents | None identified | 6.5 pts toward opponents | L 30–44 | L | None identified |
Sample: 43 market-covered games from 2022–25. Identified adjustments are rough sums of the Factors shown and are not a replacement betting line. Remaining gap is market consensus minus the OV baseline and identified adjustments. A push means the team’s scoring margin exactly matched the market line.