Bounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence
South Carolina enters after a loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyKentucky at South Carolina
Week 5 · Oct 3Williams-Brice Stadium · Columbia, SC
Matchup View
Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked Opening Line
South Carolina -6.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
South Carolina -6.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
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Last Observed Pregame Market ConsensusSouth Carolina -2.511-book consensus · observed Oct 3, 8:27 AM EDT
South Carolina -2.511-book consensus · observed Oct 3, 8:27 AM EDTWhy the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Unexplained Gap~4 pts toward KentuckyExplore similar gapsOther conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Bounce-back after a bad loss Contradictory evidence
South Carolina enters after losing its previous lined game by 31 points.
Studied in 1,930 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyMust-win after two losses Contradictory evidence
South Carolina enters after two consecutive losses in lined games.
Studied in 1,859 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyFavorite off a loss Contradictory evidence
South Carolina is favored after losing its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,220 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyPublic bias toward greatness Developing estimate
South Carolina begins the season in the top quartile of OV Ratings.
Studied in 1,692 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyLook-ahead game Contradictory evidence
South Carolina faces materially stronger Florida in its next scheduled game.
Studied in 1,044 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyLetdown after a blowout win Contradictory evidence
Kentucky enters after winning its previous lined game by at least 21 points.
Studied in 1,819 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyMomentum after a blowout win Developing estimate
Kentucky enters after winning its previous lined game by at least 21 points.
Studied in 1,819 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge game Developing estimate
Kentucky lost the most recent meeting with South Carolina.
Studied in 3,848 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge after humiliation Developing estimate
Kentucky lost the most recent meeting with South Carolina by at least 14 points.
Studied in 1,910 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRivalry games favor the underdog Developing estimate
Kentucky is the underdog in a matchup played at least 8 times in the available prior-decade archive.
Studied in 1,849 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyLook-ahead game Contradictory evidence
Kentucky faces materially stronger LSU in its next scheduled game.
Studied in 1,044 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyCompleted gameWhat happened?Kentucky 35 · South Carolina 34
- Pregame OV Line
- South Carolina -6.5
- Last Observed Pregame Market Consensus
- South Carolina -2.5
- OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
- No quantified Factors
- Actual margin
- Kentucky by 1
Observed 7h 47m before kickoff. Not a verified closing line. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.
Opening LineSouth Carolina -6.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
South Carolina -6.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusSouth Carolina -3.5Earliest observed 3-book consensus
South Carolina -3.5Earliest observed 3-book consensusWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Pregame Win Probability
Kentucky 30.9%South Carolina 69.1%
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Open until scheduled kickoffWho will win this game?
Straight-up winner
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Market consensus · South Carolina -2.5
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