Letdown after a blowout win Contradictory evidence
South Carolina enters after winning its previous lined game by at least 21 points.
Studied in 1,819 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyMississippi State at South Carolina
Week 3 · Sep 19Williams-Brice Stadium · Columbia, SC
Matchup View
Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked Opening Line
South Carolina -6.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
South Carolina -6.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
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Kickoff-adjacent Market ConsensusSouth Carolina -39-book consensus · observed Sep 19, 4:00 PM EDT
South Carolina -39-book consensus · observed Sep 19, 4:00 PM EDTWhy the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Unexplained Gap~3.5 pts toward Mississippi StateExplore similar gapsOther conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Momentum after a blowout win Developing estimate
South Carolina enters after winning its previous lined game by at least 21 points.
Studied in 1,819 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyPublic bias toward greatness Developing estimate
South Carolina begins the season in the top quartile of OV Ratings.
Studied in 1,692 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyLook-ahead game Contradictory evidence
South Carolina faces materially stronger Alabama in its next scheduled game.
Studied in 1,044 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyLetdown after a blowout win Contradictory evidence
Mississippi State enters after winning its previous lined game by at least 21 points.
Studied in 1,819 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyMomentum after a blowout win Developing estimate
Mississippi State enters after winning its previous lined game by at least 21 points.
Studied in 1,819 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyLetdown after an upset win Contradictory evidence
Mississippi State was an underdog and won its previous lined game outright.
Studied in 1,127 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyPublic bias toward greatness Developing estimate
Mississippi State begins the season in the top quartile of OV Ratings.
Studied in 1,692 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge game Developing estimate
Mississippi State lost the most recent meeting with South Carolina.
Studied in 3,848 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyCompleted gameWhat happened?Mississippi State 41 · South Carolina 34
- Pregame OV Line
- South Carolina -6.5
- Kickoff-adjacent Market Consensus
- South Carolina -3
- OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
- No quantified Factors
- Actual margin
- Mississippi State by 7
Observed 0h 14m before kickoff. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.
Opening LineSouth Carolina -6.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
South Carolina -6.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusSouth Carolina -4Earliest observed 10-book consensus
South Carolina -4Earliest observed 10-book consensusWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Pregame Win Probability
Mississippi State 30.5%South Carolina 69.5%
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Straight-up winner
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Market consensus · South Carolina -3
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