Tennessee at South Carolina

Week 8 · Oct 24Williams-Brice Stadium · Columbia, SC

Matchup View

Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked
Opening LineTennessee -3.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Your ViewMake 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Last Observed Pregame Market ConsensusSouth Carolina -2.511-book consensus · observed Oct 24, 2:12 PM EDT
Why the market may differ1 FactorOnVarsity Opening LineTennessee -3.5Factor Adjustments~1 pt toward South CarolinaOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested LineTennessee -2.5Unexplained Gap~5 pts toward South CarolinaExplore similar gaps OnVarsity Opening LineTennessee -3.5Factor adjustment (Open)~1 pt toward South CarolinaOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Open)Tennessee -2.5Opening Market ConsensusPick'emUnexplained at open~2.5 pts toward South CarolinaSince openFactor adjustment (In-Week)≈ Net zeroOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Current)Tennessee -2.5Last Observed Pregame Market ConsensusSouth Carolina -2.5Unexplained gap~5 pts toward South CarolinaExplore similar gaps South Carolina has extra rest~1 pt toward South Carolina

South Carolina has extra rest

~1 pt toward South Carolina

South Carolina has 7.0 extra days of rest. In comparable games, the market historically shaded about 1.1 points toward South Carolina; final-margin results did not show a reliable matching improvement.

See the full study
Other conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate

These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.

Letdown after an upset win Contradictory evidence

South Carolina was an underdog and won its previous lined game outright.

Studied in 1,127 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Public bias toward greatness Developing estimate

South Carolina begins the season in the top quartile of OV Ratings.

Studied in 1,692 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Revenge game Developing estimate

South Carolina lost the most recent meeting with Tennessee.

Studied in 3,848 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Revenge after humiliation Developing estimate

South Carolina lost the most recent meeting with Tennessee by at least 14 points.

Studied in 1,910 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Letdown after an upset win Contradictory evidence

Tennessee was an underdog and won its previous lined game outright.

Studied in 1,127 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Straight-up hot streak Developing estimate

Tennessee has won at least three consecutive lined games.

Studied in 1,465 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Public bias toward greatness Developing estimate

Tennessee begins the season in the top quartile of OV Ratings.

Studied in 1,692 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

High-scoring offense tax Developing estimate

Tennessee ranked in the top quartile of 2025 scoring offense.

Studied in 1,302 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Rivalry games favor the underdog Developing estimate

Tennessee is the underdog in a matchup played at least 6 times in the available prior-decade archive.

Studied in 1,849 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study
Completed gameWhat happened?Tennessee 24 · South Carolina 27
Pregame OV Line
Tennessee -3.5
Last Observed Pregame Market Consensus
South Carolina -2.5
OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
Tennessee -2.5
Actual margin
South Carolina by 3

Observed 1h 17m before kickoff. Not a verified closing line. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.

Pregame Win Probability
Tennessee 60.5%South Carolina 39.5%

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Compare Teams

TennesseeVSSouth Carolina

Model View

Overall Rating+17.1 · #13+15.6 · #16
Offense Rating+10.4+6.3
Defense Rating+6.6+9.3

2025 Performance

Offense PPA/Play0.320.10
Offense Success Rate50.4%38.2%
Defense PPA/Play Allowed0.150.08
Defense Success Rate Allowed44.6%41.8%

2026 Outlook

Market Win Total7.66.3
Playoff Odds26.4%4.5%
Strength of Schedule Rank17th16th