Offense#6
+13.4vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play0.24 #26 FBSSuccess rate47.1% #18 FBS
SEC · #6 of 138
Georgia
Implied Strength+25.7vs. FBS average · ±3.7
Record2–0through completed games
Playoff Odds70%make the 12-team field
Conference Title27%win SEC
Strength of Schedule19thof 138 FBS teams
Schedule lens
What matters next
The headline numbers are above. Here is where the season starts to take shape.
Next matchupat ArkansasWeek 3 · OV Line UGA -20.5 · 94% win chance →Toughest remaining test#10 OklahomaWeek 4 · 72% site win chance · View matchup →
Team identity
Where the strength lives
Offense projects as the stronger unit by 1.2 rating points.
Defense#9
+12.3vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play allowed0.09 #37 FBSSuccess rate allowed38.7% #37 FBS
2025 PPA (predicted points added per play) and success rate. How this split works →
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Season outlook · 50,000 simulations
How Georgia's 2026 could unfold
The current projection is 10–2 (10.0 expected wins), and the playoff is more likely than not at 70%. The distribution below shows how often each regular-season win total appeared across the schedule-aware simulations.
Range of outcomes
Projected win distribution
Most common and median 10 winsCentral 80% 8–12 winsBowl eligible 99.8%Undefeated 13.2%
Simulated (schedule-aware)Central 80% rangeMarket win total
Postseason path
2026 playoff outlook
69.7%Make the 12-team field
More likely than not across the schedule-aware simulations.
How the field is reached69.7% total
Auto-bid27.3%
At-large42.4%
Outside field30.3%
Conference title27.3%
What could move the outlook
Biggest questions
Unresolved does not mean negative. A point estimate appears only when the historical evidence supports one.
Replacing a high level of NFL-caliber production
Georgia ranks 6th of 138 teams in recent NFL draft production. The open question is how quickly the next group reproduces it.
Draft attrition is already included in the baseline. Broad roster reconstruction did not earn a separate historical point adjustment.Projection contextRoster, continuity, and market inputsView details
The market win total, returning production, coaching continuity, transfer talent, and recent NFL production help explain the evidence surrounding this projection.
Returning Production68.7%share of prior-year PPA returning for 2026
2026 Transfer Class119thof 138 FBS teams by combined portal talent
Recent NFL Draft Production6thof 138 FBS teams by NFL talent producedHeavy draft production
Market win total10.1Consensus preseason line
11:00 PM · Oct 9
Georgia at Alabama · Tuscaloosa, AL · Bryant-Denny Stadium — NIGHT: 6 - 8pm ET start
12:00 AM · Oct 17
Auburn at Georgia · Athens, GA · Sanford Stadium — AFTERNOON: 3:30 - 4:30pm ET start
11:00 PM · Nov 6
Georgia at Ole Miss · Oxford, MS · Vaught-Hemingway Stadium — FLEX: 3:30 - 4:30pm OR 6 - 8pm ET start
12:00 AM · Nov 14
Missouri at Georgia · Athens, GA · Sanford Stadium — FLEX: 3:30 - 4:30pm OR 6 - 8pm ET start
12:00 AM · Nov 21
Georgia at South Carolina · Columbia, SC · Williams-Brice Stadium — FLEX: 3:30 - 4:30pm OR 6 - 8pm ET start
Pregame evidence · 2022–25
Georgia through the lens
The OV Line is the aggregate-rating baseline. The market gap shows where the game-level consensus differed, while identified Factors show how much of that difference our research may explain. ATS records are descriptive context—not a claim that OV should outperform the market.
Market ATS44%21–27 against consensus
Average line gap2.7 pts69% inside 3 points · 33 of 48
Factor coverage65%31 of 48 games
Factor signals62% aligned21 of 34 individual observations · 2 neutral
Historical sample48 gamesmarket-covered games from 2022–25
Explanatory history
Factors present in Georgia games
| Factor | Games | Average estimate | Aligned with market | Research status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty | 18 | 4.0 pts toward opponents | 56%10 of 18 directional cases | Supported · wider uncertainty |
| Neutral-Site Same-State Context | 10 | 0.3 pts toward Georgia | 70%7 of 10 directional cases | Supported · wider uncertainty |
| Rest Differential | 4 | 1.6 pts toward opponents | 50%2 of 4 directional cases | Supported |
| Season Opener with a New Head Coach | 2 | No net direction | —0 of 0 directional cases | No separate adjustment |
| Season-Opening Quarterback Experience | 2 | 0.9 pts toward Georgia | 100%2 of 2 directional cases | Research candidate |
Underlying recordInspect all 48 historical gamesView games
| Season | Game | OV baseline | Market | Market gap | Identified adjustment | Remaining gap | Result | Market ATS | Factors |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 · W15 | vs. AlabamaNeutral | Georgia +2 | Georgia -1.5 | 3.6 pts toward Georgia | 1.5 pts toward Georgia | 2.1 pts toward Georgia | W 28–7 | W | Neutral-Site Same-State Context |
| 2025 · W14 | vs. Georgia TechNeutral | Georgia -11.5 | Georgia -16.5 | 4.9 pts toward Georgia | None identified | 4.9 pts toward Georgia | W 16–9 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W13 | vs. CharlotteHome | Georgia -50.5 | Georgia -42.5 | 8.1 pts toward opponents | 9.7 pts toward opponents | 1.7 pts toward Georgia | W 35–3 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W12 | vs. TexasHome | Georgia -6 | Georgia -3.5 | 2.3 pts toward opponents | 1.7 pts toward opponents | 0.6 pts toward opponents | W 35–10 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W11 | at Mississippi StateAway | Georgia -10.5 | Georgia -9.5 | 0.8 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.8 pts toward opponents | W 41–21 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W10 | vs. FloridaNeutral | Georgia -8 | Georgia -7 | 1.1 pts toward opponents | 1.5 pts toward opponents | 0.4 pts toward Georgia | W 24–20 | L | Neutral-Site Same-State Context |
| 2025 · W8 | vs. Ole MissHome | Georgia -8.5 | Georgia -7.5 | 0.9 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.9 pts toward opponents | W 43–35 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W7 | at AuburnAway | Georgia -2.5 | Georgia -4.5 | 1.9 pts toward Georgia | 1.0 pts toward opponents | 2.9 pts toward Georgia | W 20–10 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W6 | vs. KentuckyHome | Georgia -20.5 | Georgia -19.5 | 0.8 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.8 pts toward opponents | W 35–14 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W5 | vs. AlabamaHome | Georgia -1.5 | Georgia -2.5 | 1.1 pts toward Georgia | None identified | 1.1 pts toward Georgia | L 21–24 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W3 | at TennesseeAway | Georgia +11.5 | Georgia -3.5 | 14.8 pts toward Georgia | None identified | 14.8 pts toward Georgia | W 44–41 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W2 | vs. Austin PeayHome | Georgia -52 | Georgia -47 | 5.3 pts toward opponents | 4.2 pts toward opponents | 1.2 pts toward opponents | W 28–6 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W1 | vs. MarshallHome | Georgia -38 | Georgia -38.5 | 0.4 pts toward Georgia | 3.7 pts toward opponents | 4.1 pts toward Georgia | W 45–7 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow UncertaintySeason-Opening Quarterback ExperienceSeason Opener with a New Head Coach |
| 2024 · W15 | vs. TexasNeutral | Georgia +1.5 | Georgia +3 | 1.3 pts toward opponents | 1.2 pts toward Georgia | 2.5 pts toward opponents | W 22–19 | W | Neutral-Site Same-State Context |
| 2024 · W14 | vs. Georgia TechHome | Georgia -24.5 | Georgia -17.5 | 7.2 pts toward opponents | 2.5 pts toward opponents | 4.7 pts toward opponents | W 44–42 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2024 · W12 | vs. TennesseeHome | Georgia -6.5 | Georgia -8.5 | 1.8 pts toward Georgia | None identified | 1.8 pts toward Georgia | W 31–17 | W | None identified |
| 2024 · W11 | at Ole MissAway | Georgia +2 | Georgia -2 | 4.2 pts toward Georgia | None identified | 4.2 pts toward Georgia | L 10–28 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W10 | vs. FloridaNeutral | Georgia -18 | Georgia -14.5 | 3.5 pts toward opponents | 1.2 pts toward opponents | 2.3 pts toward opponents | W 34–20 | L | Neutral-Site Same-State Context |
| 2024 · W8 | at TexasAway | Georgia +6 | Georgia +4 | 2.1 pts toward Georgia | None identified | 2.1 pts toward Georgia | W 30–15 | W | None identified |
| 2024 · W7 | vs. Mississippi StateHome | Georgia -34 | Georgia -34 | 0.2 pts toward Georgia | 5.4 pts toward opponents | 5.6 pts toward Georgia | W 41–31 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow UncertaintyRest Differential |
| 2024 · W6 | vs. AuburnHome | Georgia -22 | Georgia -21 | 0.8 pts toward opponents | 2.2 pts toward opponents | 1.4 pts toward Georgia | W 31–13 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2024 · W5 | at AlabamaAway | Georgia +3 | Georgia -2 | 4.9 pts toward Georgia | None identified | 4.9 pts toward Georgia | L 34–41 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W3 | at KentuckyAway | Georgia -20.5 | Georgia -22 | 1.3 pts toward Georgia | None identified | 1.3 pts toward Georgia | W 13–12 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W2 | vs. Tennessee TechHome | Georgia -60.5 | Georgia -54.5 | 6.2 pts toward opponents | 7.3 pts toward opponents | 1.1 pts toward Georgia | W 48–3 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2024 · W1 | vs. ClemsonNeutral | Georgia -13 | Georgia -10.5 | 2.4 pts toward opponents | 1.2 pts toward Georgia | 3.6 pts toward opponents | W 34–3 | W | Neutral-Site Same-State Context |
| 2023 · W14 | vs. AlabamaNeutral | Georgia -2.5 | Georgia -5 | 2.6 pts toward Georgia | 1.0 pts toward Georgia | 1.5 pts toward Georgia | L 24–27 | L | Neutral-Site Same-State Context |
| 2023 · W13 | at Georgia TechAway | Georgia -26 | Georgia -24.5 | 1.3 pts toward opponents | 2.6 pts toward opponents | 1.3 pts toward Georgia | W 31–23 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2023 · W12 | at TennesseeAway | Georgia -7.5 | Georgia -9 | 1.7 pts toward Georgia | None identified | 1.7 pts toward Georgia | W 38–10 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W11 | vs. Ole MissHome | Georgia -9 | Georgia -11 | 2.1 pts toward Georgia | None identified | 2.1 pts toward Georgia | W 52–17 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W10 | vs. MissouriHome | Georgia -17 | Georgia -14.5 | 2.4 pts toward opponents | 1.8 pts toward opponents | 0.6 pts toward opponents | W 30–21 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2023 · W9 | vs. FloridaNeutral | Georgia -18.5 | Georgia -14 | 4.4 pts toward opponents | 1.0 pts toward opponents | 3.4 pts toward opponents | W 43–20 | W | Neutral-Site Same-State Context |
| 2023 · W7 | at VanderbiltAway | Georgia -34 | Georgia -32.5 | 1.3 pts toward opponents | 3.6 pts toward opponents | 2.3 pts toward Georgia | W 37–20 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2023 · W6 | vs. KentuckyHome | Georgia -18 | Georgia -14.5 | 3.5 pts toward opponents | None identified | 3.5 pts toward opponents | W 51–13 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W5 | at AuburnAway | Georgia -15 | Georgia -14 | 0.8 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.8 pts toward opponents | W 27–20 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W3 | vs. South CarolinaHome | Georgia -23.5 | Georgia -26.5 | 2.8 pts toward Georgia | 2.4 pts toward opponents | 5.2 pts toward Georgia | W 24–14 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2023 · W1 | vs. UT MartinHome | Georgia -46 | Georgia -50.5 | 4.5 pts toward Georgia | 1.0 pts toward opponents | 5.5 pts toward Georgia | W 48–7 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2022 · W14 | vs. LSUNeutral | Georgia -15 | Georgia -17 | 2.2 pts toward Georgia | 1.8 pts toward Georgia | 0.4 pts toward Georgia | W 50–30 | W | Neutral-Site Same-State Context |
| 2022 · W13 | vs. Georgia TechHome | Georgia -41.5 | Georgia -36.5 | 4.8 pts toward opponents | 5.6 pts toward opponents | 0.7 pts toward Georgia | W 37–14 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2022 · W12 | at KentuckyAway | Georgia -23.5 | Georgia -22.5 | 1.2 pts toward opponents | 2.7 pts toward opponents | 1.5 pts toward Georgia | W 16–6 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2022 · W11 | at Mississippi StateAway | Georgia -17 | Georgia -16.5 | 0.7 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.7 pts toward opponents | W 45–19 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W10 | vs. TennesseeHome | Georgia -11.5 | Georgia -10 | 1.8 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.8 pts toward opponents | W 27–13 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W9 | vs. FloridaNeutral | Georgia -20 | Georgia -23 | 2.8 pts toward Georgia | 1.8 pts toward opponents | 4.6 pts toward Georgia | W 42–20 | L | Neutral-Site Same-State Context |
| 2022 · W7 | vs. VanderbiltHome | Georgia -37.5 | Georgia -37.5 | 0.2 pts toward Georgia | 4.9 pts toward opponents | 5.1 pts toward Georgia | W 55–0 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2022 · W6 | vs. AuburnHome | Georgia -27 | Georgia -27.5 | 0.4 pts toward Georgia | 3.1 pts toward opponents | 3.5 pts toward Georgia | W 42–10 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2022 · W5 | at MissouriAway | Georgia -29 | Georgia -31 | 1.5 pts toward Georgia | 3.4 pts toward opponents | 4.9 pts toward Georgia | W 26–22 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2022 · W3 | at South CarolinaAway | Georgia -24 | Georgia -25.5 | 1.4 pts toward Georgia | 2.7 pts toward opponents | 4.1 pts toward Georgia | W 48–7 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2022 · W2 | vs. SamfordHome | Georgia -53.5 | Georgia -53 | 0.4 pts toward opponents | 5.3 pts toward opponents | 4.9 pts toward Georgia | W 33–0 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2022 · W1 | vs. OregonNeutral | Georgia -12.5 | Georgia -16 | 3.7 pts toward Georgia | 2.7 pts toward Georgia | 1.1 pts toward Georgia | W 49–3 | W | Neutral-Site Same-State ContextSeason-Opening Quarterback ExperienceSeason Opener with a New Head Coach |
Sample: 48 market-covered games from 2022–25. Identified adjustments are rough sums of the Factors shown and are not a replacement betting line. Remaining gap is market consensus minus the OV baseline and identified adjustments. A push means the team’s scoring margin exactly matched the market line.