Tennessee State at Georgia

Week 1 · Sep 5Sanford Stadium · Athens, GA
Tennessee StateFCS
@
Georgia2–0+25.7 vs. avg · #6

Matchup View

Pregame view lockedThis preserves what the matchup looked like before kickoff.
Locked
Opening LineGeorgia -68Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Your ViewMake 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Current Market ConsensusGeorgia -47.51-book consensus · updated Aug 26
Why the market may differ1 FactorOnVarsity Opening LineGeorgia -68Factor Adjustments~10 pts toward Tennessee StateOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested LineGeorgia -58Unexplained Gap~10.5 pts toward Tennessee StateExplore similar gaps OnVarsity Opening LineGeorgia -68Factor adjustment (Open)~11.5 pts toward Tennessee StateOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Open)Georgia -56.5Opening Market ConsensusGeorgia -47.5Unexplained at open~9 pts toward Tennessee StateSince openFactor adjustment (In-Week)~1.5 pts toward GeorgiaOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Current)Georgia -58Current Market ConsensusGeorgia -47.5Unexplained gap~10.5 pts toward Tennessee StateExplore similar gaps Lopsided game-flow uncertainty~10 pts toward Tennessee StateAt open ~11.5 pts toward Tennessee StateIn-week ~1.5 pts toward Georgia

Lopsided game-flow uncertainty

~10 pts toward Tennessee StateAt open ~11.5 pts toward Tennessee StateIn-week ~1.5 pts toward Georgia
Estimate is uncertain

Comparable games put Georgia's chance of winning by at least 28 at above 99%. Historically, the market shaded about 10.2 points toward Tennessee State (average-estimate range 7.5–12.1), but actual results were too noisy to treat that as a dependable OV Line adjustment.

See the full study
Completed gameWhat happened?Tennessee State 3 · Georgia 63
Pregame OV Line
Georgia -68
Final recorded market
Georgia -47.5
OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
Georgia -58
Actual margin
Georgia by 60

This preserves the pregame comparison beside the result. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.

Pregame Win Probability
Tennessee State <0.01%Georgia >99.9%

Compare Teams

Tennessee StateVSGeorgia

Model View

Overall Rating—+25.7 · #6
Offense Rating—+13.4
Defense Rating—+12.3

2025 Performance

Offense PPA/Play—0.24
Offense Success Rate—47.1%
Defense PPA/Play Allowed—0.09
Defense Success Rate Allowed—38.7%

2026 Outlook

Market Win Total—10.1
Playoff Odds—69.7%
Strength of Schedule Rank—19th