Tennessee State at Georgia

Week 1 · Sep 5Sanford Stadium · Athens, GA

Matchup View

Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked
Opening LineGeorgia -68Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
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Kickoff-adjacent Market ConsensusGeorgia -49.57-book consensus · observed Sep 5, 2:45 PM EDT
Why the market may differ1 FactorOnVarsity Opening LineGeorgia -68Factor Adjustments~10 pts toward Tennessee StateOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested LineGeorgia -58Unexplained Gap~8.5 pts toward Tennessee StateExplore similar gaps OnVarsity Opening LineGeorgia -68Factor adjustment (Open)~11.5 pts toward Tennessee StateOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Open)Georgia -56.5Opening Market ConsensusGeorgia -47.5Unexplained at open~9 pts toward Tennessee StateSince openFactor adjustment (In-Week)~1.5 pts toward GeorgiaOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Current)Georgia -58Kickoff-adjacent Market ConsensusGeorgia -49.5Unexplained gap~8.5 pts toward Tennessee StateExplore similar gaps Lopsided game-flow uncertainty~10 pts toward Tennessee StateAt open ~11.5 pts toward Tennessee StateIn-week ~1.5 pts toward Georgia

Lopsided game-flow uncertainty

~10 pts toward Tennessee StateAt open ~11.5 pts toward Tennessee StateIn-week ~1.5 pts toward Georgia
Estimate is uncertain

Comparable games put Georgia's chance of winning by at least 28 at above 99%. Historically, the market shaded about 10.2 points toward Tennessee State (average-estimate range 7.5–12.1), but actual results were too noisy to treat that as a dependable OV Line adjustment.

See the full study
Completed gameWhat happened?Tennessee State 3 · Georgia 63
Pregame OV Line
Georgia -68
Kickoff-adjacent Market Consensus
Georgia -49.5
OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
Georgia -58
Actual margin
Georgia by 60

Observed 0h 14m before kickoff. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.

Pregame Win Probability
Tennessee State <0.01%Georgia >99.9%

Compare Teams

Tennessee StateVSGeorgia

Model View

Overall Rating—+26.1 · #3
Offense Rating—+13.6
Defense Rating—+12.5

2025 Performance

Offense PPA/Play—0.24
Offense Success Rate—47.1%
Defense PPA/Play Allowed—0.09
Defense Success Rate Allowed—38.7%

2026 Outlook

Market Win Total—10.1
Playoff Odds—83.8%
Strength of Schedule Rank—21st