Auburn at Georgia

Week 7 · Oct 17Sanford Stadium · Athens, GA

AFTERNOON: 3:30 - 4:30pm ET start

Matchup View

Opening LineGeorgia -16.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
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Current Market ConsensusGeorgia -16.51-book consensus · updated Sep 16
Why the market may differ1 FactorOnVarsity Opening LineGeorgia -16.5Factor Adjustments~2 pts toward AuburnOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested LineGeorgia -14.5Unexplained Gap~2 pts toward GeorgiaExplore similar gaps OnVarsity Opening LineGeorgia -16.5Factor adjustment (Open)~2 pts toward AuburnOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Open)Georgia -14.5Opening Market ConsensusGeorgia -16.5Unexplained at open~2 pts toward GeorgiaSince openFactor adjustment (In-Week)≈ Net zeroOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Current)Georgia -14.5Current Market ConsensusGeorgia -16.5Unexplained gap~2 pts toward GeorgiaExplore similar gaps Auburn has extra rest~2 pts toward Auburn

Auburn has extra rest

~2 pts toward Auburn

Based on the current schedule, Auburn will have 7.0 extra days of rest. In comparable games, the market historically shaded about 1.8 points toward Auburn; final-margin results did not show a reliable matching improvement.

See the full study
Other conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate

These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.

Letdown after a blowout win Contradictory evidence

Georgia enters after winning its previous lined game by at least 21 points.

Studied in 1,819 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Momentum after a blowout win Developing estimate

Georgia enters after winning its previous lined game by at least 21 points.

Studied in 1,819 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Lay it with a big favorite Developing estimate

Georgia is favored by 16.5 points in the current market consensus.

Studied in 1,106 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Public bias toward greatness Developing estimate

Georgia begins the season in the top quartile of OV Ratings.

Studied in 1,692 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

High-scoring offense tax Developing estimate

Georgia ranked in the top quartile of 2025 scoring offense.

Studied in 1,302 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Letdown after a blowout win Contradictory evidence

Auburn enters after winning its previous lined game by at least 21 points.

Studied in 1,819 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Momentum after a blowout win Developing estimate

Auburn enters after winning its previous lined game by at least 21 points.

Studied in 1,819 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Take the big underdog Contradictory evidence

Auburn is a 16.5-point underdog in the current market consensus.

Studied in 1,106 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Public bias toward greatness Developing estimate

Auburn begins the season in the top quartile of OV Ratings.

Studied in 1,692 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Defense travels Contradictory evidence

Auburn is on the road after ranking in the top quartile of 2025 scoring defense.

Studied in 879 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Revenge game Developing estimate

Auburn lost the most recent meeting with Georgia.

Studied in 3,848 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Rivalry games favor the underdog Developing estimate

Auburn is the underdog in a matchup played at least 9 times in the available prior-decade archive.

Studied in 1,849 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study
Current Win Probability
Auburn 10.0%Georgia 90.0%

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Compare Teams

AuburnVSGeorgia

Model View

Overall Rating+11.9 · #27+25.7 · #6
Offense Rating+5.0+13.4
Defense Rating+6.9+12.3

2025 Performance

Offense PPA/Play0.170.24
Offense Success Rate43.5%47.1%
Defense PPA/Play Allowed0.060.09
Defense Success Rate Allowed37.4%38.7%

2026 Outlook

Market Win Total6.610.1
Playoff Odds5.0%69.7%
Strength of Schedule Rank14th19th