Offense#29
+5.0vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play0.17 #63 FBSSuccess rate43.5% #51 FBS
SEC · #27 of 138
Auburn
Implied Strength+11.9vs. FBS average · ±3.8
Record2–0through completed games
Bowl Eligibility77%reach six wins
Strength of Schedule14thof 138 FBS teams
Schedule lens
What matters next
The headline numbers are above. Here is where the season starts to take shape.
Next matchupvs. FloridaWeek 3 · OV Line AUB +3 · 41% win chance →Toughest remaining test#6 GeorgiaWeek 7 · 10% site win chance · View matchup →
Team identity
Where the strength lives
New head coach in 2026
Defense projects as the stronger unit by 1.9 rating points.
Defense#22
+6.9vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play allowed0.06 #20 FBSSuccess rate allowed37.4% #21 FBS
2025 PPA (predicted points added per play) and success rate. How this split works →
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Season outlook · 50,000 simulations
How Auburn's 2026 could unfold
The current projection is 7–5 (6.7 expected wins), with a 5% chance to reach the playoff. The distribution below shows how often each regular-season win total appeared across the schedule-aware simulations.
Range of outcomes
Projected win distribution
Most common 6 winsMedian 7 winsCentral 80% 5–9 winsBowl eligible 76.9%
Simulated (schedule-aware)Central 80% rangeMarket win total
Postseason path
2026 playoff outlook
5.0%Make the 12-team field
Still outside the median outcome across the schedule-aware simulations.
How the field is reached5.0% total
Auto-bid0.4%
At-large4.6%
Outside field95.0%
What could move the outlook
Biggest questions
Unresolved does not mean negative. A point estimate appears only when the historical evidence supports one.
How quickly does the new coaching staff take shape?
A first-year staff creates early-season implementation uncertainty even though the team-level baseline already incorporates the available preseason information.
The opener study found about a one-point market shade toward a retained coach, with a wide uncertainty range.A large share of last season's production must be replaced
14% of prior-year PPA returns, placing Auburn in the bottom quarter of the current FBS field.
This information already contributes to the team baseline; historical testing has not supported an additional generic continuity adjustment.Replacing a high level of NFL-caliber production
Auburn ranks 20th of 138 teams in recent NFL draft production. The open question is how quickly the next group reproduces it.
Draft attrition is already included in the baseline. Broad roster reconstruction did not earn a separate historical point adjustment.Projection contextRoster, continuity, and market inputsView details
The market win total, returning production, coaching continuity, transfer talent, and recent NFL production help explain the evidence surrounding this projection.
Returning Production14.4%share of prior-year PPA returning for 2026
Coaching ContinuityNew HCfirst season under a new head coach
2026 Transfer Class7thof 138 FBS teams by combined portal talentHeavy portal activity
Recent NFL Draft Production20thof 138 FBS teams by NFL talent producedHeavy draft production
Market win total6.6Consensus preseason line
Final · Sep 5Suggested side did not cover
Neutral site · Atlanta, GA · Mercedes-Benz Stadium — Aflac Kickoff
12:00 AM · Oct 3
Auburn at Tennessee · Knoxville, TN · Neyland Stadium — FLEX: 3:30 - 4:30pm OR 6 - 8pm ET start
12:00 AM · Oct 17
Auburn at Georgia · Athens, GA · Sanford Stadium — AFTERNOON: 3:30 - 4:30pm ET start
11:00 PM · Oct 30
Auburn at Ole Miss · Oxford, MS · Vaught-Hemingway Stadium — EARLY: Noon - 1pm ET start
11:00 PM · Nov 13
Auburn at Mississippi State · Starkville, MS · Davis Wade Stadium — EARLY: Noon - 1pm ET start
Pregame evidence · 2022–25
Auburn through the lens
The OV Line is the aggregate-rating baseline. The market gap shows where the game-level consensus differed, while identified Factors show how much of that difference our research may explain. ATS records are descriptive context—not a claim that OV should outperform the market.
Market ATS43%17–23–2 against consensus
Average line gap3.1 pts67% inside 3 points · 28 of 42
Factor coverage38%16 of 42 games
Factor signals56% aligned9 of 16 individual observations · 0 neutral
Historical sample42 gamesmarket-covered games from 2022–25
Explanatory history
Factors present in Auburn games
| Factor | Games | Average estimate | Aligned with market | Research status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty | 10 | 0.3 pts toward opponents | 70%7 of 10 directional cases | Supported · wider uncertainty |
| Rest Differential | 6 | 0.1 pts toward Auburn | 33%2 of 6 directional cases | Supported |
Underlying recordInspect all 42 historical gamesView games
| Season | Game | OV baseline | Market | Market gap | Identified adjustment | Remaining gap | Result | Market ATS | Factors |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 · W14 | vs. AlabamaHome | Auburn +7 | Auburn +7 | 0.2 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.2 pts toward opponents | L 20–27 | P | None identified |
| 2025 · W13 | vs. MercerHome | Auburn -33.5 | Auburn -26.5 | 6.9 pts toward opponents | 1.1 pts toward Auburn | 8.1 pts toward opponents | W 62–17 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W11 | at VanderbiltAway | Auburn +5.5 | Auburn +6 | 0.7 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.7 pts toward opponents | L 38–45 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W10 | vs. KentuckyHome | Auburn -13 | Auburn -11.5 | 1.6 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.6 pts toward opponents | L 3–10 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W9 | at ArkansasAway | Auburn -0.5 | Auburn +2.5 | 2.8 pts toward opponents | None identified | 2.8 pts toward opponents | W 33–24 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W8 | vs. MissouriHome | Auburn -2.5 | Auburn +1.5 | 4.1 pts toward opponents | None identified | 4.1 pts toward opponents | L 17–23 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W7 | vs. GeorgiaHome | Auburn +2.5 | Auburn +4.5 | 1.9 pts toward opponents | 1.0 pts toward Auburn | 2.9 pts toward opponents | L 10–20 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W5 | at Texas A&MAway | Auburn +6 | Auburn +6.5 | 0.5 pts toward opponents | 1.1 pts toward opponents | 0.6 pts toward Auburn | L 10–16 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W4 | at OklahomaAway | Auburn +5.5 | Auburn +6.5 | 1.0 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.0 pts toward opponents | L 17–24 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W3 | vs. South AlabamaHome | Auburn -31 | Auburn -26.5 | 4.5 pts toward opponents | 4.2 pts toward opponents | 0.3 pts toward opponents | W 31–15 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W2 | vs. Ball StateHome | Auburn -43 | Auburn -43 | 0.4 pts toward opponents | 6.8 pts toward opponents | 6.5 pts toward Auburn | W 42–3 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W1 | at BaylorAway | Auburn -0.5 | Auburn -1 | 0.6 pts toward Auburn | None identified | 0.6 pts toward Auburn | W 38–24 | W | None identified |
| 2024 · W14 | at AlabamaAway | Auburn +19.5 | Auburn +11 | 8.7 pts toward Auburn | None identified | 8.7 pts toward Auburn | L 14–28 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W13 | vs. Texas A&MHome | Auburn +4.5 | Auburn +2.5 | 2.0 pts toward Auburn | None identified | 2.0 pts toward Auburn | W 43–41 | W | None identified |
| 2024 · W10 | vs. VanderbiltHome | Auburn -9.5 | Auburn -7.5 | 2.0 pts toward opponents | None identified | 2.0 pts toward opponents | L 7–17 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W9 | at KentuckyAway | Auburn +3.5 | Auburn +2 | 1.4 pts toward Auburn | None identified | 1.4 pts toward Auburn | W 24–10 | W | None identified |
| 2024 · W8 | at MissouriAway | Auburn +8.5 | Auburn +3.5 | 5.1 pts toward Auburn | 1.7 pts toward Auburn | 3.4 pts toward Auburn | L 17–21 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2024 · W6 | at GeorgiaAway | Auburn +22 | Auburn +21 | 0.8 pts toward Auburn | 2.2 pts toward Auburn | 1.4 pts toward opponents | L 13–31 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2024 · W5 | vs. OklahomaHome | Auburn +5.5 | Auburn -2 | 7.5 pts toward Auburn | None identified | 7.5 pts toward Auburn | L 21–27 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W4 | vs. ArkansasHome | Auburn -9.5 | Auburn -2.5 | 7.2 pts toward opponents | None identified | 7.2 pts toward opponents | L 14–24 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W2 | vs. CaliforniaHome | Auburn -28 | Auburn -12.5 | 15.7 pts toward opponents | 2.8 pts toward opponents | 12.9 pts toward opponents | L 14–21 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2024 · W1 | vs. Alabama A&MHome | Auburn -46.5 | Auburn -48.5 | 2.1 pts toward Auburn | 0.8 pts toward opponents | 2.9 pts toward Auburn | W 73–3 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2023 · W13 | vs. AlabamaHome | Auburn +14.5 | Auburn +14.5 | 0.2 pts toward Auburn | None identified | 0.2 pts toward Auburn | L 24–27 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W11 | at ArkansasAway | Auburn +0.5 | Auburn +2.5 | 2.0 pts toward opponents | None identified | 2.0 pts toward opponents | W 48–10 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W10 | at VanderbiltAway | Auburn -15.5 | Auburn -12.5 | 3.0 pts toward opponents | None identified | 3.0 pts toward opponents | W 31–15 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W9 | vs. Mississippi StateHome | Auburn -7.5 | Auburn -6.5 | 0.9 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.9 pts toward opponents | W 27–13 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W8 | vs. Ole MissHome | Auburn +6.5 | Auburn +6.5 | 0.2 pts toward Auburn | 1.8 pts toward opponents | 2.0 pts toward Auburn | L 21–28 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2023 · W7 | at LSUAway | Auburn +10.5 | Auburn +11 | 0.6 pts toward opponents | 1.7 pts toward Auburn | 2.3 pts toward opponents | L 18–48 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2023 · W5 | vs. GeorgiaHome | Auburn +15 | Auburn +14 | 0.8 pts toward Auburn | None identified | 0.8 pts toward Auburn | L 20–27 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W4 | at Texas A&MAway | Auburn +4 | Auburn +9 | 4.8 pts toward opponents | None identified | 4.8 pts toward opponents | L 10–27 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W3 | vs. SamfordHome | Auburn -37 | Auburn -37.5 | 0.7 pts toward Auburn | 0.4 pts toward Auburn | 0.3 pts toward Auburn | W 45–13 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2023 · W2 | at CaliforniaAway | Auburn +3 | Auburn -5 | 8.2 pts toward Auburn | None identified | 8.2 pts toward Auburn | W 14–10 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W13 | at AlabamaAway | Auburn +27.5 | Auburn +22 | 5.5 pts toward Auburn | 3.1 pts toward Auburn | 2.4 pts toward Auburn | L 27–49 | P | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2022 · W11 | vs. Texas A&MHome | Auburn +4 | Auburn -1.5 | 5.6 pts toward Auburn | None identified | 5.6 pts toward Auburn | W 13–10 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W10 | at Mississippi StateAway | Auburn +14 | Auburn +12.5 | 1.5 pts toward Auburn | 1.0 pts toward opponents | 2.5 pts toward Auburn | L 33–39 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2022 · W9 | vs. ArkansasHome | Auburn +4.5 | Auburn +4 | 0.3 pts toward Auburn | None identified | 0.3 pts toward Auburn | L 27–41 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W7 | at Ole MissAway | Auburn +12.5 | Auburn +15.5 | 2.8 pts toward opponents | None identified | 2.8 pts toward opponents | L 34–48 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W6 | at GeorgiaAway | Auburn +27 | Auburn +27.5 | 0.4 pts toward opponents | 3.1 pts toward Auburn | 3.5 pts toward opponents | L 10–42 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2022 · W5 | vs. LSUHome | Auburn +10.5 | Auburn +8 | 2.4 pts toward Auburn | None identified | 2.4 pts toward Auburn | L 17–21 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W4 | vs. MissouriHome | Auburn -9 | Auburn -7.5 | 1.5 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.5 pts toward opponents | W 17–14 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W3 | vs. Penn StateHome | Auburn +9 | Auburn +2.5 | 6.6 pts toward Auburn | None identified | 6.6 pts toward Auburn | L 12–41 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W1 | vs. MercerHome | Auburn -26.5 | Auburn -30 | 3.5 pts toward Auburn | 2.0 pts toward Auburn | 1.4 pts toward Auburn | W 42–16 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
Sample: 42 market-covered games from 2022–25. Identified adjustments are rough sums of the Factors shown and are not a replacement betting line. Remaining gap is market consensus minus the OV baseline and identified adjustments. A push means the team’s scoring margin exactly matched the market line.