Public bias toward greatness Developing estimate
Auburn begins the season in the top quartile of OV Ratings.
Studied in 896 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyBaylor vs Auburn
Week 1 · Sep 5Neutral Site · Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Atlanta, GA
Aflac Kickoff
Matchup View
Pregame view lockedThis preserves what the matchup looked like before kickoff.
Locked Opening Line
Auburn -7.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Auburn -7.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
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Current Market ConsensusAuburn -72-book consensus · updated Aug 26
Auburn -72-book consensus · updated Aug 26Why the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Unexplained Gap~0.5 pts toward BaylorExplore similar gapsOther conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Revenge game Developing estimate
Baylor lost the most recent meeting with Auburn.
Studied in 1,265 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge after humiliation Developing estimate
Baylor lost the most recent meeting with Auburn by at least 14 points.
Studied in 592 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studySeason Opener with a New Head Coach No separate adjustment
Alex Golesh begins his first Auburn season; Baylor returns Dave Aranda. Across 38 comparable games, markets averaged 0.86 points toward the returning coach at the final recorded line in the full sample. However, the 24 games with provider-level opening data centered near zero at opening, at the final recorded line, and in later movement. We identify the condition for transparency but apply no Factor points.
Studied in 38 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyCompleted gameWhat happened?Baylor 16 · Auburn 17
- Pregame OV Line
- Auburn -7.5
- Final recorded market
- Auburn -7
- OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
- No quantified Factors
- Actual margin
- Auburn by 1
This preserves the pregame comparison beside the result. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.
Opening LineAuburn -7.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Auburn -7.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusAuburn -7Based on 2 books
Auburn -7Based on 2 booksWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Pregame Win Probability
Baylor 29.7%Auburn 70.3%
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Market consensus · Auburn -7
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