Offense#40
+3.9vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play0.19 #51 FBSSuccess rate44.7% #41 FBS
Big 12 · #47 of 138
Baylor
Implied Strength+5.6vs. FBS average · ±4.0
Record1–1through completed games
Bowl Eligibility56%reach six wins
Strength of Schedule43rdof 138 FBS teams
Schedule lens
What matters next
The headline numbers are above. Here is where the season starts to take shape.
Next matchupvs. Louisiana TechWeek 3 · OV Line BAY -18 · 92% win chance →Toughest remaining test#8 Texas TechWeek 12 · 13% site win chance · View matchup →
Team identity
Where the strength lives
Offense projects as the stronger unit by 2.2 rating points.
Defense#54
+1.7vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play allowed0.17 #83 FBSSuccess rate allowed43.7% #99 FBS
2025 PPA (predicted points added per play) and success rate. How this split works →
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Season outlook · 50,000 simulations
How Baylor's 2026 could unfold
The current projection is 6–6 (5.8 expected wins), with a 1% chance to reach the playoff. The distribution below shows how often each regular-season win total appeared across the schedule-aware simulations.
Range of outcomes
Projected win distribution
Most common and median 6 winsCentral 80% 4–8 winsBowl eligible 55.7%
Simulated (schedule-aware)Central 80% rangeMarket win total
Postseason path
2026 playoff outlook
0.9%Make the 12-team field
Still outside the median outcome across the schedule-aware simulations.
How the field is reached0.9% total
Auto-bid0.6%
At-large0.3%
Outside field99.1%
Conference title0.6%
What could move the outlook
Biggest questions
Unresolved does not mean negative. A point estimate appears only when the historical evidence supports one.
No major preseason uncertainty signals currently clear the display threshold for Baylor. We will update this view as matchup and in-season evidence develops.
Projection contextRoster, continuity, and market inputsView details
The market win total, returning production, coaching continuity, transfer talent, and recent NFL production help explain the evidence surrounding this projection.
Returning Production60.2%share of prior-year PPA returning for 2026
2026 Transfer Class20thof 138 FBS teams by combined portal talentHeavy portal activity
Recent NFL Draft Production41stof 138 FBS teams by NFL talent produced
Market win total5.9Consensus preseason line
Final · Sep 5Suggested side did not cover
Neutral site · Atlanta, GA · Mercedes-Benz Stadium — Aflac Kickoff
Pregame evidence · 2022–25
Baylor through the lens
The OV Line is the aggregate-rating baseline. The market gap shows where the game-level consensus differed, while identified Factors show how much of that difference our research may explain. ATS records are descriptive context—not a claim that OV should outperform the market.
Market ATS43%19–25–1 against consensus
Average line gap3.1 pts67% inside 3 points · 30 of 45
Factor coverage24%11 of 45 games
Factor signals91% aligned10 of 11 individual observations · 0 neutral
Historical sample45 gamesmarket-covered games from 2022–25
Explanatory history
Factors present in Baylor games
| Factor | Games | Average estimate | Aligned with market | Research status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rest Differential | 6 | No net direction | 83%5 of 6 directional cases | Supported |
| Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty | 5 | 1.3 pts toward Baylor | 100%5 of 5 directional cases | Supported · wider uncertainty |
Underlying recordInspect all 45 historical gamesView games
| Season | Game | OV baseline | Market | Market gap | Identified adjustment | Remaining gap | Result | Market ATS | Factors |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 · W14 | vs. HoustonHome | Baylor -5 | Baylor -2.5 | 2.3 pts toward opponents | None identified | 2.3 pts toward opponents | L 24–31 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W13 | at ArizonaAway | Baylor +6 | Baylor +6.5 | 0.7 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.7 pts toward opponents | L 17–41 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W12 | vs. UtahHome | Baylor +8.5 | Baylor +9.5 | 1.0 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.0 pts toward opponents | L 28–55 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W10 | vs. UCFHome | Baylor -8.5 | Baylor -3 | 5.6 pts toward opponents | 1.8 pts toward opponents | 3.9 pts toward opponents | W 30–3 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W9 | at CincinnatiAway | Baylor +3.5 | Baylor +3.5 | No net direction | None identified | No net direction | L 20–41 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W8 | at TCUAway | Baylor +5.5 | Baylor +3.5 | 1.9 pts toward Baylor | 1.8 pts toward Baylor | 0.1 pts toward Baylor | L 36–42 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W6 | vs. Kansas StateHome | Baylor -7 | Baylor -4.5 | 2.3 pts toward opponents | None identified | 2.3 pts toward opponents | W 35–34 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W5 | at Oklahoma StateAway | Baylor -16.5 | Baylor -21 | 4.3 pts toward Baylor | None identified | 4.3 pts toward Baylor | W 45–27 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W4 | vs. Arizona StateHome | Baylor -1.5 | Baylor -3 | 1.3 pts toward Baylor | None identified | 1.3 pts toward Baylor | L 24–27 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W3 | vs. SamfordHome | Baylor -39 | Baylor -52 | 12.9 pts toward Baylor | 0.6 pts toward Baylor | 12.3 pts toward Baylor | W 42–7 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W2 | at SMUAway | Baylor +0.5 | Baylor +3 | 2.1 pts toward opponents | None identified | 2.1 pts toward opponents | W 48–45 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W1 | vs. AuburnHome | Baylor +0.5 | Baylor +1 | 0.6 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.6 pts toward opponents | L 24–38 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W14 | vs. KansasHome | Baylor -1.5 | Baylor +1.5 | 3.0 pts toward opponents | None identified | 3.0 pts toward opponents | W 45–17 | W | None identified |
| 2024 · W13 | at HoustonAway | Baylor -7 | Baylor -7 | 0.1 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.1 pts toward opponents | W 20–10 | W | None identified |
| 2024 · W12 | at West VirginiaAway | Baylor 0 | Baylor -2 | 2.2 pts toward Baylor | 1.7 pts toward Baylor | 0.5 pts toward Baylor | W 49–35 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2024 · W10 | vs. TCUHome | Baylor -3.5 | Baylor -2.5 | 1.1 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.1 pts toward opponents | W 37–34 | W | None identified |
| 2024 · W9 | vs. Oklahoma StateHome | Baylor -3 | Baylor -7 | 4.2 pts toward Baylor | None identified | 4.2 pts toward Baylor | W 38–28 | W | None identified |
| 2024 · W8 | at Texas TechAway | Baylor +4 | Baylor +4.5 | 0.5 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.5 pts toward opponents | W 59–35 | W | None identified |
| 2024 · W6 | at Iowa StateAway | Baylor +11 | Baylor +13 | 1.9 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.9 pts toward opponents | L 21–43 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W5 | vs. BYUHome | Baylor 0 | Baylor -3 | 2.9 pts toward Baylor | None identified | 2.9 pts toward Baylor | L 28–34 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W4 | at ColoradoAway | Baylor -6.5 | Baylor +2.5 | 8.8 pts toward opponents | None identified | 8.8 pts toward opponents | L 31–38 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W2 | at UtahAway | Baylor +16 | Baylor +14.5 | 1.5 pts toward Baylor | None identified | 1.5 pts toward Baylor | L 12–23 | W | None identified |
| 2024 · W1 | vs. Tarleton StateHome | Baylor -26.5 | Baylor -33.5 | 6.9 pts toward Baylor | 2.5 pts toward Baylor | 4.4 pts toward Baylor | W 45–3 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2023 · W13 | vs. West VirginiaHome | Baylor +6.5 | Baylor +8.5 | 2.2 pts toward opponents | None identified | 2.2 pts toward opponents | L 31–34 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W12 | at TCUAway | Baylor +12 | Baylor +13 | 0.9 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.9 pts toward opponents | L 17–42 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W11 | at Kansas StateAway | Baylor +23 | Baylor +20.5 | 2.5 pts toward Baylor | 2.3 pts toward Baylor | 0.2 pts toward Baylor | L 25–59 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2023 · W10 | vs. HoustonHome | Baylor -2 | Baylor -2.5 | 0.3 pts toward Baylor | None identified | 0.3 pts toward Baylor | L 24–25 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W9 | vs. Iowa StateHome | Baylor +1.5 | Baylor +3 | 1.6 pts toward opponents | 1.7 pts toward opponents | 0.1 pts toward Baylor | L 18–30 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2023 · W8 | at CincinnatiAway | Baylor +6 | Baylor +2.5 | 3.3 pts toward Baylor | 1.7 pts toward Baylor | 1.6 pts toward Baylor | W 32–29 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2023 · W6 | vs. Texas TechHome | Baylor +7.5 | Baylor +2.5 | 4.9 pts toward Baylor | None identified | 4.9 pts toward Baylor | L 14–39 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W5 | at UCFAway | Baylor +15.5 | Baylor +11.5 | 4.0 pts toward Baylor | None identified | 4.0 pts toward Baylor | W 36–35 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W4 | vs. TexasHome | Baylor +19.5 | Baylor +17.5 | 1.9 pts toward Baylor | None identified | 1.9 pts toward Baylor | L 6–38 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W3 | vs. Long Island UniversityHome | Baylor -38 | Baylor -44 | 6.0 pts toward Baylor | 0.2 pts toward Baylor | 5.8 pts toward Baylor | W 30–7 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2023 · W2 | vs. UtahHome | Baylor +20.5 | Baylor +7 | 13.7 pts toward Baylor | None identified | 13.7 pts toward Baylor | L 13–20 | P | None identified |
| 2022 · W13 | at TexasAway | Baylor +10.5 | Baylor +10 | 0.6 pts toward Baylor | None identified | 0.6 pts toward Baylor | L 27–38 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W12 | vs. TCUHome | Baylor 0 | Baylor +2 | 1.9 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.9 pts toward opponents | L 28–29 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W11 | vs. Kansas StateHome | Baylor -2 | Baylor -2.5 | 0.4 pts toward Baylor | None identified | 0.4 pts toward Baylor | L 3–31 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W10 | at OklahomaAway | Baylor +3 | Baylor +3 | 0.2 pts toward Baylor | None identified | 0.2 pts toward Baylor | W 38–35 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W9 | at Texas TechAway | Baylor 0 | Baylor +1.5 | 1.3 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.3 pts toward opponents | W 45–17 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W8 | vs. KansasHome | Baylor -12 | Baylor -10.5 | 1.4 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.4 pts toward opponents | W 35–23 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W7 | at West VirginiaAway | Baylor 0 | Baylor -3 | 3.2 pts toward Baylor | None identified | 3.2 pts toward Baylor | L 40–43 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W5 | vs. Oklahoma StateHome | Baylor -2 | Baylor -2.5 | 0.7 pts toward Baylor | 1.7 pts toward opponents | 2.4 pts toward Baylor | L 25–36 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2022 · W4 | at Iowa StateAway | Baylor -4 | Baylor +2.5 | 6.4 pts toward opponents | None identified | 6.4 pts toward opponents | W 31–24 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W2 | at BYUAway | Baylor -5.5 | Baylor +2.5 | 7.9 pts toward opponents | None identified | 7.9 pts toward opponents | L 20–26 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W1 | vs. UAlbanyHome | Baylor -37 | Baylor -42.5 | 5.6 pts toward Baylor | 1.0 pts toward Baylor | 4.6 pts toward Baylor | W 69–10 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
Sample: 45 market-covered games from 2022–25. Identified adjustments are rough sums of the Factors shown and are not a replacement betting line. Remaining gap is market consensus minus the OV baseline and identified adjustments. A push means the team’s scoring margin exactly matched the market line.