Offense#21
+7.4vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play0.22 #33 FBSSuccess rate46.0% #27 FBS
Big 12 · #20 of 138
BYU
Implied Strength+14.5vs. FBS average · ±3.8
Record2–0through completed games
Playoff Odds26%make the 12-team field
Conference Title14%win Big 12
Strength of Schedule42ndof 138 FBS teams
Schedule lens
What matters next
The headline numbers are above. Here is where the season starts to take shape.
Next matchupat Colorado StateWeek 3 · OV Line BYU -18.5 · 92% win chance →Toughest remaining test#5 Notre DameWeek 7 · 23% site win chance · View matchup →
Team identity
Where the strength lives
The model sees a balanced team, with neither unit separating meaningfully from the other.
Defense#21
+7.1vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play allowed0.06 #22 FBSSuccess rate allowed38.5% #33 FBS
2025 PPA (predicted points added per play) and success rate. How this split works →
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Season outlook · 50,000 simulations
How BYU's 2026 could unfold
The current projection is 9–3 (8.9 expected wins), with a 26% chance to reach the playoff. The distribution below shows how often each regular-season win total appeared across the schedule-aware simulations.
Range of outcomes
Projected win distribution
Most common and median 9 winsCentral 80% 7–11 winsBowl eligible 98.0%Undefeated 2.7%
Simulated (schedule-aware)Central 80% rangeMarket win total
Postseason path
2026 playoff outlook
26.0%Make the 12-team field
Still outside the median outcome across the schedule-aware simulations.
How the field is reached26.0% total
Auto-bid13.8%
At-large12.3%
Outside field74.0%
Conference title13.8%
What could move the outlook
Biggest questions
Unresolved does not mean negative. A point estimate appears only when the historical evidence supports one.
No major preseason uncertainty signals currently clear the display threshold for BYU. We will update this view as matchup and in-season evidence develops.
Projection contextRoster, continuity, and market inputsView details
The market win total, returning production, coaching continuity, transfer talent, and recent NFL production help explain the evidence surrounding this projection.
Returning Production78.5%share of prior-year PPA returning for 2026
2026 Transfer Class120thof 138 FBS teams by combined portal talent
Recent NFL Draft Production44thof 138 FBS teams by NFL talent produced
Market win total8.9Consensus preseason line
Pregame evidence · 2022–25
BYU through the lens
The OV Line is the aggregate-rating baseline. The market gap shows where the game-level consensus differed, while identified Factors show how much of that difference our research may explain. ATS records are descriptive context—not a claim that OV should outperform the market.
Market ATS54%21–18–1 against consensus
Average line gap3.8 pts55% inside 3 points · 22 of 40
Factor coverage28%11 of 40 games
Factor signals69% aligned9 of 13 individual observations · 0 neutral
Historical sample40 gamesmarket-covered games from 2022–25
Explanatory history
Factors present in BYU games
| Factor | Games | Average estimate | Aligned with market | Research status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rest Differential | 7 | 0.3 pts toward BYU | 43%3 of 7 directional cases | Supported |
| Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty | 4 | No net direction | 100%4 of 4 directional cases | Supported · wider uncertainty |
| Neutral-Site Same-State Context | 1 | 1.5 pts toward opponents | 100%1 of 1 directional cases | Supported · wider uncertainty |
| Season-Opening Quarterback Experience | 1 | 0.8 pts toward BYU | 100%1 of 1 directional cases | Research candidate |
Underlying recordInspect all 40 historical gamesView games
| Season | Game | OV baseline | Market | Market gap | Identified adjustment | Remaining gap | Result | Market ATS | Factors |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 · W15 | vs. Texas TechNeutral | BYU +10.5 | BYU +12.5 | 2.1 pts toward opponents | 1.5 pts toward opponents | 0.5 pts toward opponents | L 7–34 | L | Neutral-Site Same-State Context |
| 2025 · W14 | vs. UCFHome | BYU -17 | BYU -17.5 | 0.7 pts toward BYU | None identified | 0.7 pts toward BYU | W 41–21 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W13 | at CincinnatiAway | BYU -1.5 | BYU -2.5 | 1.0 pts toward BYU | None identified | 1.0 pts toward BYU | W 26–14 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W12 | vs. TCUHome | BYU -4 | BYU -3 | 1.2 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.2 pts toward opponents | W 44–13 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W11 | at Texas TechAway | BYU +11.5 | BYU +13.5 | 2.1 pts toward opponents | 1.8 pts toward BYU | 3.9 pts toward opponents | L 7–29 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W9 | at Iowa StateAway | BYU +1 | BYU +2.5 | 1.5 pts toward opponents | 1.1 pts toward opponents | 0.4 pts toward opponents | W 41–27 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W8 | vs. UtahHome | BYU +2.5 | BYU +4 | 1.7 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.7 pts toward opponents | W 24–21 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W7 | at ArizonaAway | BYU -3 | BYU -2.5 | 0.7 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.7 pts toward opponents | W 33–27 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W6 | vs. West VirginiaHome | BYU -19 | BYU -19.5 | 0.5 pts toward BYU | None identified | 0.5 pts toward BYU | W 38–24 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W5 | at ColoradoAway | BYU -9 | BYU -6.5 | 2.4 pts toward opponents | None identified | 2.4 pts toward opponents | W 24–21 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W4 | at East CarolinaAway | BYU -15 | BYU -6.5 | 8.4 pts toward opponents | 1.7 pts toward BYU | 10.1 pts toward opponents | W 34–13 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W2 | vs. StanfordHome | BYU -41.5 | BYU -20.5 | 20.8 pts toward opponents | 8.0 pts toward opponents | 12.8 pts toward opponents | W 27–3 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow UncertaintyRest Differential |
| 2025 · W1 | vs. Portland StateHome | BYU -32 | BYU -44 | 12.2 pts toward BYU | 3.3 pts toward BYU | 8.9 pts toward BYU | W 69–0 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow UncertaintySeason-Opening Quarterback Experience |
| 2024 · W14 | vs. HoustonHome | BYU -14 | BYU -12 | 1.9 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.9 pts toward opponents | W 30–18 | P | None identified |
| 2024 · W13 | at Arizona StateAway | BYU +1 | BYU +3.5 | 2.4 pts toward opponents | None identified | 2.4 pts toward opponents | L 23–28 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W12 | vs. KansasHome | BYU -4 | BYU -2.5 | 1.6 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.6 pts toward opponents | L 13–17 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W11 | at UtahAway | BYU +1.5 | BYU -3 | 4.4 pts toward BYU | None identified | 4.4 pts toward BYU | W 22–21 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W9 | at UCFAway | BYU +1 | BYU +2.5 | 1.3 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.3 pts toward opponents | W 37–24 | W | None identified |
| 2024 · W8 | vs. Oklahoma StateHome | BYU -4.5 | BYU -8.5 | 3.9 pts toward BYU | 1.8 pts toward opponents | 5.6 pts toward BYU | W 38–35 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2024 · W7 | vs. ArizonaHome | BYU -4.5 | BYU -2.5 | 1.8 pts toward opponents | 1.1 pts toward BYU | 2.9 pts toward opponents | W 41–19 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2024 · W5 | at BaylorAway | BYU 0 | BYU +3 | 2.9 pts toward opponents | None identified | 2.9 pts toward opponents | W 34–28 | W | None identified |
| 2024 · W4 | vs. Kansas StateHome | BYU +3.5 | BYU +7.5 | 4.0 pts toward opponents | None identified | 4.0 pts toward opponents | W 38–9 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W13 | at Oklahoma StateAway | BYU +12 | BYU +16.5 | 4.6 pts toward opponents | None identified | 4.6 pts toward opponents | L 34–40 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W12 | vs. OklahomaHome | BYU +21 | BYU +24.5 | 3.5 pts toward opponents | None identified | 3.5 pts toward opponents | L 24–31 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W11 | vs. Iowa StateHome | BYU +2.5 | BYU +7.5 | 4.9 pts toward opponents | None identified | 4.9 pts toward opponents | L 13–45 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W10 | at West VirginiaAway | BYU +4 | BYU +12.5 | 8.3 pts toward opponents | None identified | 8.3 pts toward opponents | L 7–37 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W9 | at TexasAway | BYU +22.5 | BYU +20.5 | 1.9 pts toward BYU | 2.3 pts toward BYU | 0.4 pts toward opponents | L 6–35 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2023 · W8 | vs. Texas TechHome | BYU +6.5 | BYU +3 | 3.3 pts toward BYU | None identified | 3.3 pts toward BYU | W 27–14 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W7 | at TCUAway | BYU +9.5 | BYU +5 | 4.7 pts toward BYU | 1.8 pts toward BYU | 2.9 pts toward BYU | L 11–44 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2023 · W5 | vs. CincinnatiHome | BYU -1.5 | BYU -1 | 0.4 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.4 pts toward opponents | W 35–27 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W4 | at KansasAway | BYU +3.5 | BYU +9.5 | 6.1 pts toward opponents | None identified | 6.1 pts toward opponents | L 27–38 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W3 | at ArkansasAway | BYU +16.5 | BYU +8.5 | 8.5 pts toward BYU | None identified | 8.5 pts toward BYU | W 38–31 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W2 | vs. Southern UtahHome | BYU -26 | BYU -31 | 4.8 pts toward BYU | 1.5 pts toward BYU | 3.3 pts toward BYU | W 41–16 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2022 · W13 | at StanfordAway | BYU -8.5 | BYU -6.5 | 1.9 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.9 pts toward opponents | W 35–26 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W10 | at Boise StateAway | BYU +8.5 | BYU +9.5 | 1.1 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.1 pts toward opponents | W 31–28 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W8 | at LibertyAway | BYU -11 | BYU -7 | 4.1 pts toward opponents | None identified | 4.1 pts toward opponents | L 14–41 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W7 | vs. ArkansasHome | BYU -1 | BYU -1 | 0.2 pts toward BYU | None identified | 0.2 pts toward BYU | L 35–52 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W6 | vs. Notre DameNeutral | BYU +1 | BYU +3.5 | 2.3 pts toward opponents | None identified | 2.3 pts toward opponents | L 20–28 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W3 | at OregonAway | BYU -1 | BYU +3.5 | 4.5 pts toward opponents | None identified | 4.5 pts toward opponents | L 20–41 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W2 | vs. BaylorHome | BYU +5.5 | BYU -2.5 | 7.9 pts toward BYU | None identified | 7.9 pts toward BYU | W 26–20 | W | None identified |
Sample: 40 market-covered games from 2022–25. Identified adjustments are rough sums of the Factors shown and are not a replacement betting line. Remaining gap is market consensus minus the OV baseline and identified adjustments. A push means the team’s scoring margin exactly matched the market line.