Utah Tech at BYU

Week 1 · Sep 5LaVell Edwards Stadium · Provo, UT
Utah TechFCS
@
BYU7–1+14.5 vs. avg · #23

Matchup View

Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked
Opening LineBYU -51Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Your ViewMake 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Kickoff-adjacent Market ConsensusBYU -50.59-book consensus · observed Sep 5, 7:45 PM EDT
Why the market may differ1 FactorOnVarsity Opening LineBYU -51Factor Adjustments~3 pts toward Utah TechOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested LineBYU -48Unexplained Gap~2.5 pts toward BYUExplore similar gaps OnVarsity Opening LineBYU -51Factor adjustment (Open)~5 pts toward Utah TechOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Open)BYU -46Opening Market ConsensusBYU -49.5Unexplained at open~3.5 pts toward BYUSince openFactor adjustment (In-Week)~2 pts toward BYUOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Current)BYU -48Kickoff-adjacent Market ConsensusBYU -50.5Unexplained gap~2.5 pts toward BYUExplore similar gaps Lopsided game-flow uncertainty~3 pts toward Utah TechAt open ~5 pts toward Utah TechIn-week ~2 pts toward BYU

Lopsided game-flow uncertainty

~3 pts toward Utah TechAt open ~5 pts toward Utah TechIn-week ~2 pts toward BYU
Estimate is uncertain

Comparable games put BYU's chance of winning by at least 28 at about 97%. Historically, the market shaded about 3.0 points toward Utah Tech (average-estimate range 1.8–3.9), but actual results were too noisy to treat that as a dependable OV Line adjustment.

See the full study
Completed gameWhat happened?Utah Tech 7 · BYU 63
Pregame OV Line
BYU -51
Kickoff-adjacent Market Consensus
BYU -50.5
OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
BYU -48
Actual margin
BYU by 56

Observed 0h 14m before kickoff. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.

Pregame Win Probability
Utah Tech <0.01%BYU >99.9%

Compare Teams

Utah TechVSBYU

Model View

Overall Rating—+14.5 · #23
Offense Rating—+7.4
Defense Rating—+7.1

2025 Performance

Offense PPA/Play—0.22
Offense Success Rate—46.0%
Defense PPA/Play Allowed—0.06
Defense Success Rate Allowed—38.5%

2026 Outlook

Market Win Total—8.9
Playoff Odds—37.9%
Strength of Schedule Rank—37th