Offense#50
+2.9vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play0.30 #16 FBSSuccess rate46.8% #21 FBS
Big 12 · #59 of 138
Cincinnati
Implied Strength+2.0vs. FBS average · ±3.9
Record2–0through completed games
Bowl Eligibility48%reach six wins
Strength of Schedule40thof 138 FBS teams
Schedule lens
What matters next
The headline numbers are above. Here is where the season starts to take shape.
Next matchupvs. Miami (OH)Week 3 · OV Line CIN -14.5 · 88% win chance →Toughest remaining test#8 Texas TechWeek 8 · 8% site win chance · View matchup →
Team identity
Where the strength lives
Low returning production
Offense projects as the stronger unit by 3.8 rating points.
Defense#70
-0.9vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play allowed0.19 #93 FBSSuccess rate allowed43.9% #101 FBS
2025 PPA (predicted points added per play) and success rate. How this split works →
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Season outlook · 50,000 simulations
How Cincinnati's 2026 could unfold
The current projection is 5–7 (5.5 expected wins), with a <0.01% chance to reach the playoff. The distribution below shows how often each regular-season win total appeared across the schedule-aware simulations.
Range of outcomes
Projected win distribution
Most common and median 5 winsCentral 80% 4–8 winsBowl eligible 47.5%
Simulated (schedule-aware)Central 80% rangeMarket win total
Postseason path
2026 playoff outlook
0.3%Make the 12-team field
Still outside the median outcome across the schedule-aware simulations.
How the field is reached0.3% total
Auto-bid0.1%
At-large0.2%
Outside field99.7%
What could move the outlook
Biggest questions
Unresolved does not mean negative. A point estimate appears only when the historical evidence supports one.
A large share of last season's production must be replaced
8% of prior-year PPA returns, placing Cincinnati in the bottom quarter of the current FBS field.
This information already contributes to the team baseline; historical testing has not supported an additional generic continuity adjustment.Projection contextRoster, continuity, and market inputsView details
The market win total, returning production, coaching continuity, transfer talent, and recent NFL production help explain the evidence surrounding this projection.
Returning Production8.3%share of prior-year PPA returning for 2026
2026 Transfer Class50thof 138 FBS teams by combined portal talent
Recent NFL Draft Production30thof 138 FBS teams by NFL talent produced
Market win total5.1Consensus preseason line
Pregame evidence · 2022–25
Cincinnati through the lens
The OV Line is the aggregate-rating baseline. The market gap shows where the game-level consensus differed, while identified Factors show how much of that difference our research may explain. ATS records are descriptive context—not a claim that OV should outperform the market.
Market ATS39%14–22–2 against consensus
Average line gap2.9 pts74% inside 3 points · 28 of 38
Factor coverage26%10 of 38 games
Factor signals80% aligned8 of 10 individual observations · 0 neutral
Historical sample38 gamesmarket-covered games from 2022–25
Explanatory history
Factors present in Cincinnati games
| Factor | Games | Average estimate | Aligned with market | Research status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rest Differential | 6 | 0.9 pts toward Cincinnati | 83%5 of 6 directional cases | Supported |
| Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty | 4 | 0.3 pts toward Cincinnati | 75%3 of 4 directional cases | Supported · wider uncertainty |
Underlying recordInspect all 38 historical gamesView games
| Season | Game | OV baseline | Market | Market gap | Identified adjustment | Remaining gap | Result | Market ATS | Factors |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 · W14 | at TCUAway | Cincinnati +5.5 | Cincinnati +3 | 2.4 pts toward Cincinnati | None identified | 2.4 pts toward Cincinnati | L 23–45 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W13 | vs. BYUHome | Cincinnati +1.5 | Cincinnati +2.5 | 1.0 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.0 pts toward opponents | L 14–26 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W12 | vs. ArizonaHome | Cincinnati -5 | Cincinnati -6 | 1.2 pts toward Cincinnati | 1.0 pts toward Cincinnati | 0.2 pts toward Cincinnati | L 24–30 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W10 | at UtahAway | Cincinnati +11.5 | Cincinnati +11 | 0.4 pts toward Cincinnati | None identified | 0.4 pts toward Cincinnati | L 14–45 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W9 | vs. BaylorHome | Cincinnati -3.5 | Cincinnati -3.5 | No net direction | None identified | No net direction | W 41–20 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W8 | at Oklahoma StateAway | Cincinnati -18 | Cincinnati -23.5 | 5.3 pts toward Cincinnati | None identified | 5.3 pts toward Cincinnati | W 49–17 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W7 | vs. UCFHome | Cincinnati -9 | Cincinnati -10.5 | 1.4 pts toward Cincinnati | None identified | 1.4 pts toward Cincinnati | W 20–11 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W6 | vs. Iowa StateHome | Cincinnati -2.5 | Cincinnati -1.5 | 1.1 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.1 pts toward opponents | W 38–30 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W5 | at KansasAway | Cincinnati +4 | Cincinnati +5.5 | 1.3 pts toward opponents | 1.8 pts toward Cincinnati | 3.1 pts toward opponents | W 37–34 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W3 | vs. Northwestern StateHome | Cincinnati -57 | Cincinnati -48.5 | 8.7 pts toward opponents | 6.6 pts toward opponents | 2.2 pts toward opponents | W 70–0 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W2 | vs. Bowling GreenHome | Cincinnati -20.5 | Cincinnati -22 | 1.6 pts toward Cincinnati | None identified | 1.6 pts toward Cincinnati | W 34–20 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W1 | vs. NebraskaNeutral | Cincinnati +6 | Cincinnati +6 | 0.1 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.1 pts toward opponents | L 17–20 | W | None identified |
| 2024 · W14 | vs. TCUHome | Cincinnati +0.5 | Cincinnati +2.5 | 2.1 pts toward opponents | None identified | 2.1 pts toward opponents | L 13–20 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W13 | at Kansas StateAway | Cincinnati +8.5 | Cincinnati +7.5 | 1.1 pts toward Cincinnati | None identified | 1.1 pts toward Cincinnati | L 15–41 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W12 | at Iowa StateAway | Cincinnati +10.5 | Cincinnati +7 | 3.3 pts toward Cincinnati | None identified | 3.3 pts toward Cincinnati | L 17–34 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W11 | vs. West VirginiaHome | Cincinnati -4.5 | Cincinnati -5.5 | 1.2 pts toward Cincinnati | None identified | 1.2 pts toward Cincinnati | L 24–31 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W9 | at ColoradoAway | Cincinnati +5 | Cincinnati +6 | 0.9 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.9 pts toward opponents | L 23–34 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W8 | vs. Arizona StateHome | Cincinnati -5 | Cincinnati -5 | 0.1 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.1 pts toward opponents | W 24–14 | W | None identified |
| 2024 · W7 | at UCFAway | Cincinnati +7 | Cincinnati +2.5 | 4.3 pts toward Cincinnati | 1.8 pts toward Cincinnati | 2.5 pts toward Cincinnati | W 19–13 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2024 · W5 | at Texas TechAway | Cincinnati +5 | Cincinnati +3 | 1.9 pts toward Cincinnati | None identified | 1.9 pts toward Cincinnati | L 41–44 | P | None identified |
| 2024 · W4 | vs. HoustonHome | Cincinnati -5 | Cincinnati -4 | 1.2 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.2 pts toward opponents | W 34–0 | W | None identified |
| 2024 · W2 | vs. PittsburghHome | Cincinnati +4.5 | Cincinnati -2 | 6.3 pts toward Cincinnati | None identified | 6.3 pts toward Cincinnati | L 27–28 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W1 | vs. TowsonHome | Cincinnati -32.5 | Cincinnati -33.5 | 0.9 pts toward Cincinnati | 1.9 pts toward Cincinnati | 1.0 pts toward opponents | W 38–20 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2023 · W13 | vs. KansasHome | Cincinnati +6.5 | Cincinnati +7.5 | 1.0 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.0 pts toward opponents | L 16–49 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W12 | at West VirginiaAway | Cincinnati +8.5 | Cincinnati +5 | 3.6 pts toward Cincinnati | None identified | 3.6 pts toward Cincinnati | L 21–42 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W11 | at HoustonAway | Cincinnati +1 | Cincinnati +3 | 2.0 pts toward opponents | None identified | 2.0 pts toward opponents | W 24–14 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W10 | vs. UCFHome | Cincinnati +5.5 | Cincinnati +3.5 | 1.9 pts toward Cincinnati | None identified | 1.9 pts toward Cincinnati | L 26–28 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W9 | at Oklahoma StateAway | Cincinnati +4.5 | Cincinnati +7.5 | 2.9 pts toward opponents | None identified | 2.9 pts toward opponents | L 13–45 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W8 | vs. BaylorHome | Cincinnati -6 | Cincinnati -2.5 | 3.3 pts toward opponents | 1.7 pts toward opponents | 1.6 pts toward opponents | L 29–32 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2023 · W7 | vs. Iowa StateHome | Cincinnati -2.5 | Cincinnati -5 | 2.7 pts toward Cincinnati | 1.1 pts toward Cincinnati | 1.5 pts toward Cincinnati | L 10–30 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2023 · W5 | at BYUAway | Cincinnati +1.5 | Cincinnati +1 | 0.4 pts toward Cincinnati | None identified | 0.4 pts toward Cincinnati | L 27–35 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W4 | vs. OklahomaHome | Cincinnati +31.5 | Cincinnati +14 | 17.3 pts toward Cincinnati | 3.3 pts toward Cincinnati | 14.0 pts toward Cincinnati | L 6–20 | P | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2023 · W2 | at PittsburghAway | Cincinnati -8.5 | Cincinnati +6.5 | 14.9 pts toward opponents | None identified | 14.9 pts toward opponents | W 27–21 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W1 | vs. Eastern KentuckyHome | Cincinnati -22.5 | Cincinnati -21.5 | 0.9 pts toward opponents | 2.6 pts toward Cincinnati | 3.4 pts toward opponents | W 66–13 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2022 · W9 | at UCFAway | Cincinnati +4 | Cincinnati +1.5 | 2.4 pts toward Cincinnati | None identified | 2.4 pts toward Cincinnati | L 21–25 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W8 | at SMUAway | Cincinnati -1.5 | Cincinnati -3.5 | 1.9 pts toward Cincinnati | 1.6 pts toward Cincinnati | 0.4 pts toward Cincinnati | W 29–27 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2022 · W4 | vs. IndianaHome | Cincinnati -11 | Cincinnati -16.5 | 5.6 pts toward Cincinnati | None identified | 5.6 pts toward Cincinnati | W 45–24 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W1 | at ArkansasAway | Cincinnati +6 | Cincinnati +6.5 | 0.6 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.6 pts toward opponents | L 24–31 | L | None identified |
Sample: 38 market-covered games from 2022–25. Identified adjustments are rough sums of the Factors shown and are not a replacement betting line. Remaining gap is market consensus minus the OV baseline and identified adjustments. A push means the team’s scoring margin exactly matched the market line.