Offense#23
+7.3vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play0.21 #37 FBSSuccess rate40.6% #92 FBS
Big 12 · #22 of 138
Kansas State
Implied Strength+12.9vs. FBS average · ±4.1
Record2–0through completed games
Playoff Odds26%make the 12-team field
Conference Title9%win Big 12
Strength of Schedule61stof 138 FBS teams
Schedule lens
What matters next
The headline numbers are above. Here is where the season starts to take shape.
Next matchupvs. TulaneWeek 3 · OV Line KSU -19 · 93% win chance →Toughest remaining test#29 HoustonWeek 6 · 64% site win chance · View matchup →
Team identity
Where the strength lives
New head coach in 2026
Offense projects as the stronger unit by 1.8 rating points.
Defense#30
+5.5vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play allowed0.12 #56 FBSSuccess rate allowed39.4% #45 FBS
2025 PPA (predicted points added per play) and success rate. How this split works →
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Season outlook · 50,000 simulations
How Kansas State's 2026 could unfold
The current projection is 9–3 (9.1 expected wins), with a 26% chance to reach the playoff. The distribution below shows how often each regular-season win total appeared across the schedule-aware simulations.
Range of outcomes
Projected win distribution
Most common 10 winsMedian 9 winsCentral 80% 7–11 winsBowl eligible 97.8%Undefeated 6.0%
Simulated (schedule-aware)Central 80% rangeMarket win total
Postseason path
2026 playoff outlook
25.9%Make the 12-team field
Still outside the median outcome across the schedule-aware simulations.
How the field is reached25.9% total
Auto-bid9.4%
At-large16.5%
Outside field74.2%
Conference title9.4%
What could move the outlook
Biggest questions
Unresolved does not mean negative. A point estimate appears only when the historical evidence supports one.
How quickly does the new coaching staff take shape?
A first-year staff creates early-season implementation uncertainty even though the team-level baseline already incorporates the available preseason information.
The opener study found about a one-point market shade toward a retained coach, with a wide uncertainty range.Projection contextRoster, continuity, and market inputsView details
The market win total, returning production, coaching continuity, transfer talent, and recent NFL production help explain the evidence surrounding this projection.
Returning Production71.4%share of prior-year PPA returning for 2026
Coaching ContinuityNew HCfirst season under a new head coach
2026 Transfer Class37thof 138 FBS teams by combined portal talent
Recent NFL Draft Production33rdof 138 FBS teams by NFL talent produced
Market win total8.2Consensus preseason line
Final · Sep 5Suggested side covered
Nicholls at Kansas State · Manhattan, KS · Bill Snyder Family Stadium
Pregame evidence · 2022–25
Kansas State through the lens
The OV Line is the aggregate-rating baseline. The market gap shows where the game-level consensus differed, while identified Factors show how much of that difference our research may explain. ATS records are descriptive context—not a claim that OV should outperform the market.
Market ATS57%25–19–1 against consensus
Average line gap3.2 pts69% inside 3 points · 31 of 45
Factor coverage22%10 of 45 games
Factor signals50% aligned5 of 10 individual observations · 0 neutral
Historical sample45 gamesmarket-covered games from 2022–25
Explanatory history
Factors present in Kansas State games
| Factor | Games | Average estimate | Aligned with market | Research status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty | 5 | 0.1 pts toward opponents | 60%3 of 5 directional cases | Supported · wider uncertainty |
| Rest Differential | 4 | 0.5 pts toward Kansas State | 50%2 of 4 directional cases | Supported |
| Neutral-Site Same-State Context | 1 | 1.8 pts toward opponents | 0%0 of 1 directional cases | Supported · wider uncertainty |
Underlying recordInspect all 45 historical gamesView games
| Season | Game | OV baseline | Market | Market gap | Identified adjustment | Remaining gap | Result | Market ATS | Factors |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 · W14 | vs. ColoradoHome | Kansas State -14 | Kansas State -16.5 | 2.4 pts toward Kansas State | None identified | 2.4 pts toward Kansas State | W 24–14 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W13 | at UtahAway | Kansas State +16 | Kansas State +17.5 | 1.4 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.4 pts toward opponents | L 47–51 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W12 | at Oklahoma StateAway | Kansas State -21 | Kansas State -19.5 | 1.7 pts toward opponents | 2.7 pts toward opponents | 1.0 pts toward Kansas State | W 14–6 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W10 | vs. Texas TechHome | Kansas State +7.5 | Kansas State +7.5 | 0.2 pts toward Kansas State | None identified | 0.2 pts toward Kansas State | L 20–43 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W9 | at KansasAway | Kansas State +2.5 | Kansas State +3.5 | 0.8 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.8 pts toward opponents | W 42–17 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W7 | vs. TCUHome | Kansas State +1 | Kansas State +3 | 2.2 pts toward opponents | None identified | 2.2 pts toward opponents | W 41–28 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W6 | at BaylorAway | Kansas State +7 | Kansas State +4.5 | 2.3 pts toward Kansas State | None identified | 2.3 pts toward Kansas State | L 34–35 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W5 | vs. UCFHome | Kansas State -3 | Kansas State -6 | 3.1 pts toward Kansas State | 1.1 pts toward Kansas State | 2.0 pts toward Kansas State | W 34–20 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W3 | at ArizonaAway | Kansas State +8.5 | Kansas State -1.5 | 10.0 pts toward Kansas State | None identified | 10.0 pts toward Kansas State | L 17–23 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W1 | vs. North DakotaHome | Kansas State -38.5 | Kansas State -27.5 | 10.9 pts toward opponents | 0.7 pts toward Kansas State | 11.5 pts toward opponents | W 38–35 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W1 | vs. Iowa StateNeutral | Kansas State -6 | Kansas State -3 | 2.9 pts toward opponents | None identified | 2.9 pts toward opponents | L 21–24 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W14 | at Iowa StateAway | Kansas State +4.5 | Kansas State +2 | 2.4 pts toward Kansas State | None identified | 2.4 pts toward Kansas State | L 21–29 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W13 | vs. CincinnatiHome | Kansas State -8.5 | Kansas State -7.5 | 1.1 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.1 pts toward opponents | W 41–15 | W | None identified |
| 2024 · W12 | vs. Arizona StateHome | Kansas State -10 | Kansas State -7.5 | 2.6 pts toward opponents | 1.1 pts toward Kansas State | 3.7 pts toward opponents | L 14–24 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2024 · W10 | at HoustonAway | Kansas State -13 | Kansas State -12.5 | 0.7 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.7 pts toward opponents | L 19–24 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W9 | vs. KansasHome | Kansas State -12 | Kansas State -10 | 2.1 pts toward opponents | None identified | 2.1 pts toward opponents | W 29–27 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W8 | at West VirginiaAway | Kansas State -0.5 | Kansas State -2.5 | 2.1 pts toward Kansas State | None identified | 2.1 pts toward Kansas State | W 45–18 | W | None identified |
| 2024 · W7 | at ColoradoAway | Kansas State -5.5 | Kansas State -3.5 | 2.0 pts toward opponents | None identified | 2.0 pts toward opponents | W 31–28 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W5 | vs. Oklahoma StateHome | Kansas State -1.5 | Kansas State -6 | 4.7 pts toward Kansas State | None identified | 4.7 pts toward Kansas State | W 42–20 | W | None identified |
| 2024 · W4 | at BYUAway | Kansas State -3.5 | Kansas State -7.5 | 4.0 pts toward Kansas State | None identified | 4.0 pts toward Kansas State | L 9–38 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W3 | vs. ArizonaHome | Kansas State -14 | Kansas State -7 | 6.8 pts toward opponents | None identified | 6.8 pts toward opponents | W 31–7 | W | None identified |
| 2024 · W1 | vs. UT MartinHome | Kansas State -36 | Kansas State -36.5 | 0.3 pts toward Kansas State | 1.5 pts toward Kansas State | 1.2 pts toward opponents | W 41–6 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2023 · W13 | vs. Iowa StateHome | Kansas State -14.5 | Kansas State -9.5 | 4.8 pts toward opponents | None identified | 4.8 pts toward opponents | L 35–42 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W12 | at KansasAway | Kansas State -8.5 | Kansas State -7.5 | 0.9 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.9 pts toward opponents | W 31–27 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W11 | vs. BaylorHome | Kansas State -23 | Kansas State -20.5 | 2.5 pts toward opponents | 2.3 pts toward opponents | 0.2 pts toward opponents | W 59–25 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2023 · W10 | at TexasAway | Kansas State +5.5 | Kansas State +4 | 2.0 pts toward Kansas State | None identified | 2.0 pts toward Kansas State | L 30–33 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W9 | vs. HoustonHome | Kansas State -20.5 | Kansas State -17.5 | 3.2 pts toward opponents | None identified | 3.2 pts toward opponents | W 41–0 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W8 | vs. TCUHome | Kansas State -7 | Kansas State -5.5 | 1.4 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.4 pts toward opponents | W 41–3 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W7 | at Texas TechAway | Kansas State -1.5 | Kansas State +1 | 2.7 pts toward opponents | None identified | 2.7 pts toward opponents | W 38–21 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W6 | at Oklahoma StateAway | Kansas State -18.5 | Kansas State -11.5 | 7.2 pts toward opponents | None identified | 7.2 pts toward opponents | L 21–29 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W4 | vs. UCFHome | Kansas State -3 | Kansas State -6 | 2.9 pts toward Kansas State | None identified | 2.9 pts toward Kansas State | W 44–31 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W3 | at MissouriAway | Kansas State -20 | Kansas State -3.5 | 16.7 pts toward opponents | None identified | 16.7 pts toward opponents | L 27–30 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W1 | vs. Southeast Missouri StateHome | Kansas State -29 | Kansas State -28.5 | 0.4 pts toward opponents | 2.4 pts toward Kansas State | 2.8 pts toward opponents | W 45–0 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2022 · W14 | vs. TCUNeutral | Kansas State +1.5 | Kansas State -1 | 2.5 pts toward Kansas State | 1.8 pts toward opponents | 4.3 pts toward Kansas State | W 31–28 | W | Neutral-Site Same-State Context |
| 2022 · W13 | vs. KansasHome | Kansas State -12.5 | Kansas State -12 | 0.5 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.5 pts toward opponents | W 47–27 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W12 | at West VirginiaAway | Kansas State -8 | Kansas State -8 | No net direction | None identified | No net direction | W 48–31 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W11 | at BaylorAway | Kansas State +2 | Kansas State +2.5 | 0.4 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.4 pts toward opponents | W 31–3 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W10 | vs. TexasHome | Kansas State +5.5 | Kansas State +3 | 2.4 pts toward Kansas State | 1.7 pts toward opponents | 4.1 pts toward Kansas State | L 27–34 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2022 · W9 | vs. Oklahoma StateHome | Kansas State +2 | Kansas State -2.5 | 4.4 pts toward Kansas State | None identified | 4.4 pts toward Kansas State | W 48–0 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W8 | at TCUAway | Kansas State +4.5 | Kansas State +3.5 | 1.2 pts toward Kansas State | 1.7 pts toward Kansas State | 0.5 pts toward opponents | L 28–38 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2022 · W6 | at Iowa StateAway | Kansas State +2.5 | Kansas State -1 | 3.3 pts toward Kansas State | None identified | 3.3 pts toward Kansas State | W 10–9 | P | None identified |
| 2022 · W5 | vs. Texas TechHome | Kansas State -3 | Kansas State -7.5 | 4.6 pts toward Kansas State | None identified | 4.6 pts toward Kansas State | W 37–28 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W4 | at OklahomaAway | Kansas State +16 | Kansas State +13.5 | 2.6 pts toward Kansas State | None identified | 2.6 pts toward Kansas State | W 41–34 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W2 | vs. MissouriHome | Kansas State -6.5 | Kansas State -7 | 0.4 pts toward Kansas State | None identified | 0.4 pts toward Kansas State | W 40–12 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W1 | vs. South DakotaHome | Kansas State -16.5 | Kansas State -27 | 10.6 pts toward Kansas State | None identified | 10.6 pts toward Kansas State | W 34–0 | W | None identified |
Sample: 45 market-covered games from 2022–25. Identified adjustments are rough sums of the Factors shown and are not a replacement betting line. Remaining gap is market consensus minus the OV baseline and identified adjustments. A push means the team’s scoring margin exactly matched the market line.