Offense#65
+0.5vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play-0.01 #135 FBSSuccess rate34.2% #133 FBS
Big 12 · #49 of 138
Oklahoma State
Implied Strength+4.8vs. FBS average · ±3.5
Record1–1through completed games
Bowl Eligibility57%reach six wins
Strength of Schedule32ndof 138 FBS teams
Schedule lens
What matters next
The headline numbers are above. Here is where the season starts to take shape.
Next matchupvs. Murray StateWeek 3 · OV Line OKST -38.5 · >99.9% win chance →Toughest remaining test#8 Texas TechWeek 11 · 11% site win chance · View matchup →
Team identity
Where the strength lives
New head coach in 2026
Defense projects as the stronger unit by 3.9 rating points.
Defense#39
+4.3vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play allowed0.26 #127 FBSSuccess rate allowed44.2% #107 FBS
2025 PPA (predicted points added per play) and success rate. How this split works →
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Season outlook · 50,000 simulations
How Oklahoma State's 2026 could unfold
The current projection is 6–6 (5.8 expected wins), with a 1% chance to reach the playoff. The distribution below shows how often each regular-season win total appeared across the schedule-aware simulations.
Range of outcomes
Projected win distribution
Most common and median 6 winsCentral 80% 4–8 winsBowl eligible 57.4%
Simulated (schedule-aware)Central 80% rangeMarket win total
Postseason path
2026 playoff outlook
0.6%Make the 12-team field
Still outside the median outcome across the schedule-aware simulations.
How the field is reached0.6% total
Auto-bid0.4%
At-large0.2%
Outside field99.4%
What could move the outlook
Biggest questions
Unresolved does not mean negative. A point estimate appears only when the historical evidence supports one.
How quickly does the new coaching staff take shape?
A first-year staff creates early-season implementation uncertainty even though the team-level baseline already incorporates the available preseason information.
The opener study found about a one-point market shade toward a retained coach, with a wide uncertainty range.A large share of last season's production must be replaced
<0.01% of prior-year PPA returns, placing Oklahoma State in the bottom quarter of the current FBS field.
This information already contributes to the team baseline; historical testing has not supported an additional generic continuity adjustment.Projection contextRoster, continuity, and market inputsView details
The market win total, returning production, coaching continuity, transfer talent, and recent NFL production help explain the evidence surrounding this projection.
Returning Production<0.01%share of prior-year PPA returning for 2026
Coaching ContinuityNew HCfirst season under a new head coach
2026 Transfer Class1stof 138 FBS teams by combined portal talentHeavy portal activity
Recent NFL Draft Production76thof 138 FBS teams by NFL talent produced
Market win total6.2Consensus preseason line
Pregame evidence · 2022–25
Oklahoma State through the lens
The OV Line is the aggregate-rating baseline. The market gap shows where the game-level consensus differed, while identified Factors show how much of that difference our research may explain. ATS records are descriptive context—not a claim that OV should outperform the market.
Market ATS43%20–26 against consensus
Average line gap3.9 pts39% inside 3 points · 18 of 46
Factor coverage33%15 of 46 games
Factor signals73% aligned11 of 15 individual observations · 1 neutral
Historical sample46 gamesmarket-covered games from 2022–25
Explanatory history
Factors present in Oklahoma State games
| Factor | Games | Average estimate | Aligned with market | Research status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty | 7 | 2.1 pts toward Oklahoma State | 100%6 of 6 directional cases | Supported · wider uncertainty |
| Rest Differential | 6 | No net direction | 50%3 of 6 directional cases | Supported |
| Season-Opening Quarterback Experience | 2 | 0.8 pts toward Oklahoma State | 100%2 of 2 directional cases | Research candidate |
| Neutral-Site Same-State Context | 1 | 1.0 pts toward opponents | 0%0 of 1 directional cases | Supported · wider uncertainty |
Underlying recordInspect all 46 historical gamesView games
| Season | Game | OV baseline | Market | Market gap | Identified adjustment | Remaining gap | Result | Market ATS | Factors |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 · W14 | vs. Iowa StateHome | Oklahoma State +20 | Oklahoma State +14 | 5.8 pts toward Oklahoma State | None identified | 5.8 pts toward Oklahoma State | L 13–20 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W13 | at UCFAway | Oklahoma State +19.5 | Oklahoma State +13.5 | 5.9 pts toward Oklahoma State | None identified | 5.9 pts toward Oklahoma State | L 14–17 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W12 | vs. Kansas StateHome | Oklahoma State +21 | Oklahoma State +19.5 | 1.7 pts toward Oklahoma State | 2.7 pts toward Oklahoma State | 1.0 pts toward opponents | L 6–14 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W10 | at KansasAway | Oklahoma State +26 | Oklahoma State +24.5 | 1.6 pts toward Oklahoma State | 3.4 pts toward Oklahoma State | 1.8 pts toward opponents | L 21–38 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W9 | at Texas TechAway | Oklahoma State +38 | Oklahoma State +37.5 | 0.5 pts toward Oklahoma State | 5.6 pts toward Oklahoma State | 5.1 pts toward opponents | L 0–42 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W8 | vs. CincinnatiHome | Oklahoma State +18 | Oklahoma State +23.5 | 5.3 pts toward opponents | None identified | 5.3 pts toward opponents | L 17–49 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W7 | vs. HoustonHome | Oklahoma State +13 | Oklahoma State +14.5 | 1.7 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.7 pts toward opponents | L 17–39 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W6 | at ArizonaAway | Oklahoma State +21.5 | Oklahoma State +21.5 | No net direction | 2.7 pts toward Oklahoma State | 2.7 pts toward opponents | L 13–41 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W5 | vs. BaylorHome | Oklahoma State +16.5 | Oklahoma State +21 | 4.3 pts toward opponents | None identified | 4.3 pts toward opponents | L 27–45 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W4 | vs. TulsaHome | Oklahoma State -12 | Oklahoma State -10 | 2.0 pts toward opponents | 1.1 pts toward Oklahoma State | 3.1 pts toward opponents | L 12–19 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W2 | at OregonAway | Oklahoma State +34.5 | Oklahoma State +28.5 | 6.2 pts toward Oklahoma State | 4.9 pts toward Oklahoma State | 1.2 pts toward Oklahoma State | L 3–69 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W1 | vs. UT MartinHome | Oklahoma State -20.5 | Oklahoma State -26 | 5.3 pts toward Oklahoma State | 0.8 pts toward Oklahoma State | 4.5 pts toward Oklahoma State | W 27–7 | L | Season-Opening Quarterback Experience |
| 2024 · W14 | at ColoradoAway | Oklahoma State +13.5 | Oklahoma State +15 | 1.3 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.3 pts toward opponents | L 0–52 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W13 | vs. Texas TechHome | Oklahoma State 0 | Oklahoma State +5 | 4.8 pts toward opponents | None identified | 4.8 pts toward opponents | L 48–56 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W11 | at TCUAway | Oklahoma State +6.5 | Oklahoma State +10.5 | 3.8 pts toward opponents | None identified | 3.8 pts toward opponents | L 13–38 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W10 | vs. Arizona StateHome | Oklahoma State -4.5 | Oklahoma State +5 | 9.3 pts toward opponents | 1.8 pts toward opponents | 7.6 pts toward opponents | L 21–42 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2024 · W9 | at BaylorAway | Oklahoma State +3 | Oklahoma State +7 | 4.2 pts toward opponents | None identified | 4.2 pts toward opponents | L 28–38 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W8 | at BYUAway | Oklahoma State +4.5 | Oklahoma State +8.5 | 3.9 pts toward opponents | 1.8 pts toward Oklahoma State | 5.6 pts toward opponents | L 35–38 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2024 · W6 | vs. West VirginiaHome | Oklahoma State -6.5 | Oklahoma State -2.5 | 3.9 pts toward opponents | 1.7 pts toward opponents | 2.2 pts toward opponents | L 14–38 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2024 · W5 | at Kansas StateAway | Oklahoma State +1.5 | Oklahoma State +6 | 4.7 pts toward opponents | None identified | 4.7 pts toward opponents | L 20–42 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W4 | vs. UtahHome | Oklahoma State +1.5 | Oklahoma State +1 | 0.4 pts toward Oklahoma State | None identified | 0.4 pts toward Oklahoma State | L 19–22 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W2 | vs. ArkansasHome | Oklahoma State -4.5 | Oklahoma State -10 | 5.3 pts toward Oklahoma State | None identified | 5.3 pts toward Oklahoma State | W 39–31 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W1 | vs. South Dakota StateHome | Oklahoma State -16.5 | Oklahoma State -9.5 | 6.9 pts toward opponents | None identified | 6.9 pts toward opponents | W 44–20 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W14 | vs. TexasNeutral | Oklahoma State +16 | Oklahoma State +14.5 | 1.4 pts toward Oklahoma State | 1.0 pts toward opponents | 2.5 pts toward Oklahoma State | L 21–49 | L | Neutral-Site Same-State Context |
| 2023 · W13 | vs. BYUHome | Oklahoma State -12 | Oklahoma State -16.5 | 4.6 pts toward Oklahoma State | None identified | 4.6 pts toward Oklahoma State | W 40–34 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W12 | at HoustonAway | Oklahoma State -7 | Oklahoma State -6.5 | 0.6 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.6 pts toward opponents | W 43–30 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W11 | at UCFAway | Oklahoma State +1.5 | Oklahoma State -2.5 | 4.2 pts toward Oklahoma State | None identified | 4.2 pts toward Oklahoma State | L 3–45 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W10 | vs. OklahomaHome | Oklahoma State +12.5 | Oklahoma State +6 | 6.6 pts toward Oklahoma State | None identified | 6.6 pts toward Oklahoma State | W 27–24 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W9 | vs. CincinnatiHome | Oklahoma State -4.5 | Oklahoma State -7.5 | 2.9 pts toward Oklahoma State | None identified | 2.9 pts toward Oklahoma State | W 45–13 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W8 | at West VirginiaAway | Oklahoma State +5.5 | Oklahoma State +3 | 2.4 pts toward Oklahoma State | None identified | 2.4 pts toward Oklahoma State | W 48–34 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W7 | vs. KansasHome | Oklahoma State +7 | Oklahoma State +3 | 3.9 pts toward Oklahoma State | None identified | 3.9 pts toward Oklahoma State | W 39–32 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W6 | vs. Kansas StateHome | Oklahoma State +18.5 | Oklahoma State +11.5 | 7.2 pts toward Oklahoma State | None identified | 7.2 pts toward Oklahoma State | W 29–21 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W4 | at Iowa StateAway | Oklahoma State +12.5 | Oklahoma State +3.5 | 8.9 pts toward Oklahoma State | None identified | 8.9 pts toward Oklahoma State | L 27–34 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W2 | at Arizona StateAway | Oklahoma State -8.5 | Oklahoma State -2.5 | 6.0 pts toward opponents | None identified | 6.0 pts toward opponents | W 27–15 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W1 | vs. Central ArkansasHome | Oklahoma State -25.5 | Oklahoma State -26 | 0.7 pts toward Oklahoma State | 3.3 pts toward Oklahoma State | 2.6 pts toward opponents | W 27–13 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow UncertaintySeason-Opening Quarterback Experience |
| 2022 · W13 | vs. West VirginiaHome | Oklahoma State -6 | Oklahoma State -5.5 | 0.7 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.7 pts toward opponents | L 19–24 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W12 | at OklahomaAway | Oklahoma State +8.5 | Oklahoma State +7 | 1.3 pts toward Oklahoma State | None identified | 1.3 pts toward Oklahoma State | L 13–28 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W11 | vs. Iowa StateHome | Oklahoma State -1 | Oklahoma State +3 | 3.8 pts toward opponents | None identified | 3.8 pts toward opponents | W 20–14 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W10 | at KansasAway | Oklahoma State -6.5 | Oklahoma State +3 | 9.5 pts toward opponents | 1.1 pts toward opponents | 8.4 pts toward opponents | L 16–37 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2022 · W9 | at Kansas StateAway | Oklahoma State -2 | Oklahoma State +2.5 | 4.4 pts toward opponents | None identified | 4.4 pts toward opponents | L 0–48 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W8 | vs. TexasHome | Oklahoma State +5.5 | Oklahoma State +6.5 | 0.9 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.9 pts toward opponents | W 41–34 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W7 | at TCUAway | Oklahoma State -2.5 | Oklahoma State +5 | 7.7 pts toward opponents | None identified | 7.7 pts toward opponents | L 40–43 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W6 | vs. Texas TechHome | Oklahoma State -10 | Oklahoma State -11.5 | 1.4 pts toward Oklahoma State | None identified | 1.4 pts toward Oklahoma State | W 41–31 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W5 | at BaylorAway | Oklahoma State +2 | Oklahoma State +2.5 | 0.7 pts toward opponents | 1.7 pts toward Oklahoma State | 2.4 pts toward opponents | W 36–25 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2022 · W3 | vs. Arkansas-Pine BluffHome | Oklahoma State -58.5 | Oklahoma State -54.5 | 3.9 pts toward opponents | 7.3 pts toward opponents | 3.4 pts toward Oklahoma State | W 63–7 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2022 · W2 | vs. Arizona StateHome | Oklahoma State -3 | Oklahoma State -12 | 8.8 pts toward Oklahoma State | None identified | 8.8 pts toward Oklahoma State | W 34–17 | W | None identified |
Sample: 46 market-covered games from 2022–25. Identified adjustments are rough sums of the Factors shown and are not a replacement betting line. Remaining gap is market consensus minus the OV baseline and identified adjustments. A push means the team’s scoring margin exactly matched the market line.