UCF at Oklahoma State

Week 6 · Oct 10Boone Pickens Stadium · Stillwater, OK

Matchup View

Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked
Opening LineOklahoma State -6Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Your ViewMake 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Last Observed Pregame Market ConsensusOklahoma State -1011-book consensus · observed Oct 9, 7:49 PM EDT
Why the market may differ1 FactorOnVarsity Opening LineOklahoma State -6Factor Adjustments~1 pt toward Oklahoma StateOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested LineOklahoma State -7Unexplained Gap~3 pts toward Oklahoma StateExplore similar gaps OnVarsity Opening LineOklahoma State -6Factor adjustment (Open)~1 pt toward Oklahoma StateOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Open)Oklahoma State -7Opening Market ConsensusOklahoma State -10Unexplained at open~3 pts toward Oklahoma StateSince openFactor adjustment (In-Week)≈ Net zeroOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Current)Oklahoma State -7Last Observed Pregame Market ConsensusOklahoma State -10Unexplained gap~3 pts toward Oklahoma StateExplore similar gaps Oklahoma State has extra rest~1 pt toward Oklahoma State

Oklahoma State has extra rest

~1 pt toward Oklahoma State

Oklahoma State has 6.7 extra days of rest. In comparable games, the market historically shaded about 1.0 points toward Oklahoma State; final-margin results did not show a reliable matching improvement.

See the full study
Completed gameWhat happened?UCF 28 · Oklahoma State 42
Pregame OV Line
Oklahoma State -6
Last Observed Pregame Market Consensus
Oklahoma State -10
OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
Oklahoma State -7
Actual margin
Oklahoma State by 14

Observed 16h 10m before kickoff. Not a verified closing line. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.

Pregame Win Probability
UCF 31.8%Oklahoma State 68.2%

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Compare Teams

UCFVSOklahoma State

Model View

Overall Rating+2.9 · #56+12.0 · #34
Offense Rating+0.4+4.0
Defense Rating+2.5+7.9

2025 Performance

Offense PPA/Play0.15-0.01
Offense Success Rate39.9%34.2%
Defense PPA/Play Allowed0.110.26
Defense Success Rate Allowed42.3%44.2%

2026 Outlook

Market Win Total5.96.2
Playoff Odds<0.01%3.8%
Strength of Schedule Rank52nd51st