Offense#61
+0.8vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play0.15 #83 FBSSuccess rate39.9% #100 FBS
Big 12 · #54 of 138
UCF
Implied Strength+3.7vs. FBS average · ±3.7
Record1–1through completed games
Bowl Eligibility57%reach six wins
Strength of Schedule57thof 138 FBS teams
Schedule lens
What matters next
The headline numbers are above. Here is where the season starts to take shape.
Next matchupvs. Georgia StateWeek 3 · OV Line UCF -23.5 · 97% win chance →Toughest remaining test#20 BYUWeek 8 · 26% site win chance · View matchup →
Team identity
Where the strength lives
Defense projects as the stronger unit by 2.2 rating points.
Defense#47
+2.9vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play allowed0.11 #53 FBSSuccess rate allowed42.3% #82 FBS
2025 PPA (predicted points added per play) and success rate. How this split works →
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Season outlook · 50,000 simulations
How UCF's 2026 could unfold
The current projection is 6–6 (5.9 expected wins), with a 1% chance to reach the playoff. The distribution below shows how often each regular-season win total appeared across the schedule-aware simulations.
Range of outcomes
Projected win distribution
Most common and median 6 winsCentral 80% 4–8 winsBowl eligible 57.5%
Simulated (schedule-aware)Central 80% rangeMarket win total
Postseason path
2026 playoff outlook
0.7%Make the 12-team field
Still outside the median outcome across the schedule-aware simulations.
How the field is reached0.7% total
Auto-bid0.5%
At-large0.2%
Outside field99.3%
Conference title0.5%
What could move the outlook
Biggest questions
Unresolved does not mean negative. A point estimate appears only when the historical evidence supports one.
No major preseason uncertainty signals currently clear the display threshold for UCF. We will update this view as matchup and in-season evidence develops.
Projection contextRoster, continuity, and market inputsView details
The market win total, returning production, coaching continuity, transfer talent, and recent NFL production help explain the evidence surrounding this projection.
Returning Production24.8%share of prior-year PPA returning for 2026
2026 Transfer Class28thof 138 FBS teams by combined portal talent
Recent NFL Draft Production47thof 138 FBS teams by NFL talent produced
Market win total5.9Consensus preseason line
Final · Sep 3Suggested side did not cover
Bethune-Cookman at UCF · Orlando, FL · FBC Mortgage Stadium
Pregame evidence · 2022–25
UCF through the lens
The OV Line is the aggregate-rating baseline. The market gap shows where the game-level consensus differed, while identified Factors show how much of that difference our research may explain. ATS records are descriptive context—not a claim that OV should outperform the market.
Market ATS41%16–23 against consensus
Average line gap3.8 pts56% inside 3 points · 22 of 39
Factor coverage38%15 of 39 games
Factor signals81% aligned13 of 16 individual observations · 0 neutral
Historical sample39 gamesmarket-covered games from 2022–25
Explanatory history
Factors present in UCF games
| Factor | Games | Average estimate | Aligned with market | Research status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rest Differential | 9 | 0.1 pts toward opponents | 78%7 of 9 directional cases | Supported |
| Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty | 6 | 0.2 pts toward UCF | 83%5 of 6 directional cases | Supported · wider uncertainty |
| Season-Opening Quarterback Experience | 1 | 0.8 pts toward UCF | 100%1 of 1 directional cases | Research candidate |
Underlying recordInspect all 39 historical gamesView games
| Season | Game | OV baseline | Market | Market gap | Identified adjustment | Remaining gap | Result | Market ATS | Factors |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 · W14 | at BYUAway | UCF +17 | UCF +17.5 | 0.7 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.7 pts toward opponents | L 21–41 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W13 | vs. Oklahoma StateHome | UCF -19.5 | UCF -13.5 | 5.9 pts toward opponents | None identified | 5.9 pts toward opponents | W 17–14 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W12 | at Texas TechAway | UCF +22 | UCF +24.5 | 2.5 pts toward opponents | 2.8 pts toward UCF | 5.3 pts toward opponents | L 9–48 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W11 | vs. HoustonHome | UCF -3 | UCF -1.5 | 1.3 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.3 pts toward opponents | L 27–30 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W10 | at BaylorAway | UCF +8.5 | UCF +3 | 5.6 pts toward UCF | 1.8 pts toward UCF | 3.9 pts toward UCF | L 3–30 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W8 | vs. West VirginiaHome | UCF -9 | UCF -6.5 | 2.7 pts toward opponents | 1.8 pts toward opponents | 0.9 pts toward opponents | W 45–13 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W7 | at CincinnatiAway | UCF +9 | UCF +10.5 | 1.4 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.4 pts toward opponents | L 11–20 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W6 | vs. KansasHome | UCF +0.5 | UCF +4 | 3.3 pts toward opponents | None identified | 3.3 pts toward opponents | L 20–27 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W5 | at Kansas StateAway | UCF +3 | UCF +6 | 3.1 pts toward opponents | 1.1 pts toward opponents | 2.0 pts toward opponents | L 20–34 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W4 | vs. North CarolinaHome | UCF -9.5 | UCF -7 | 2.6 pts toward opponents | 1.1 pts toward UCF | 3.6 pts toward opponents | W 34–9 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W2 | vs. North Carolina A&THome | UCF -46 | UCF -37.5 | 8.3 pts toward opponents | 1.3 pts toward opponents | 7.0 pts toward opponents | W 68–7 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W1 | vs. Jacksonville StateHome | UCF -21.5 | UCF -20.5 | 1.1 pts toward opponents | 1.7 pts toward opponents | 0.6 pts toward UCF | W 17–10 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2024 · W14 | vs. UtahHome | UCF -7 | UCF -10 | 3.2 pts toward UCF | None identified | 3.2 pts toward UCF | L 14–28 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W13 | at West VirginiaAway | UCF -1.5 | UCF -3 | 1.3 pts toward UCF | 1.7 pts toward UCF | 0.4 pts toward opponents | L 21–31 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2024 · W11 | at Arizona StateAway | UCF 0 | UCF +2.5 | 2.5 pts toward opponents | None identified | 2.5 pts toward opponents | L 31–35 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W10 | vs. ArizonaHome | UCF -6 | UCF -6.5 | 0.7 pts toward UCF | None identified | 0.7 pts toward UCF | W 56–12 | W | None identified |
| 2024 · W9 | vs. BYUHome | UCF -1 | UCF -2.5 | 1.3 pts toward UCF | None identified | 1.3 pts toward UCF | L 24–37 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W8 | at Iowa StateAway | UCF +11.5 | UCF +13 | 1.4 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.4 pts toward opponents | L 35–38 | W | None identified |
| 2024 · W7 | vs. CincinnatiHome | UCF -7 | UCF -2.5 | 4.3 pts toward opponents | 1.8 pts toward opponents | 2.5 pts toward opponents | L 13–19 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2024 · W6 | at FloridaAway | UCF 0 | UCF -1 | 0.8 pts toward UCF | 1.1 pts toward opponents | 1.9 pts toward UCF | L 13–24 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2024 · W5 | vs. ColoradoHome | UCF -11.5 | UCF -12.5 | 0.9 pts toward UCF | 1.1 pts toward UCF | 0.1 pts toward opponents | L 21–48 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2024 · W3 | at TCUAway | UCF -9.5 | UCF +2.5 | 12.2 pts toward opponents | None identified | 12.2 pts toward opponents | W 35–34 | W | None identified |
| 2024 · W1 | vs. New HampshireHome | UCF -29 | UCF -38.5 | 9.3 pts toward UCF | 2.3 pts toward UCF | 6.9 pts toward UCF | W 57–3 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2023 · W13 | vs. HoustonHome | UCF -13.5 | UCF -15.5 | 2.2 pts toward UCF | None identified | 2.2 pts toward UCF | W 27–13 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W12 | at Texas TechAway | UCF +2 | UCF +2.5 | 0.3 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.3 pts toward opponents | L 23–24 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W11 | vs. Oklahoma StateHome | UCF -1.5 | UCF +2.5 | 4.2 pts toward opponents | None identified | 4.2 pts toward opponents | W 45–3 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W10 | at CincinnatiAway | UCF -5.5 | UCF -3.5 | 1.9 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.9 pts toward opponents | W 28–26 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W9 | vs. West VirginiaHome | UCF -7.5 | UCF -6.5 | 1.0 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.0 pts toward opponents | L 28–41 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W8 | at OklahomaAway | UCF +20 | UCF +17 | 3.0 pts toward UCF | None identified | 3.0 pts toward UCF | L 29–31 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W6 | at KansasAway | UCF -2 | UCF -2 | 0.2 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.2 pts toward opponents | L 22–51 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W5 | vs. BaylorHome | UCF -15.5 | UCF -11.5 | 4.0 pts toward opponents | None identified | 4.0 pts toward opponents | L 35–36 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W4 | at Kansas StateAway | UCF +3 | UCF +6 | 2.9 pts toward opponents | None identified | 2.9 pts toward opponents | L 31–44 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W3 | vs. VillanovaHome | UCF -46.5 | UCF -26.5 | 19.9 pts toward opponents | 2.2 pts toward opponents | 17.7 pts toward opponents | W 48–14 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2022 · W10 | at MemphisAway | UCF -8.5 | UCF -3 | 5.7 pts toward opponents | 1.1 pts toward opponents | 4.6 pts toward opponents | W 35–28 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2022 · W9 | vs. CincinnatiHome | UCF -4 | UCF -1.5 | 2.4 pts toward opponents | None identified | 2.4 pts toward opponents | W 25–21 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W6 | vs. SMUHome | UCF -6.5 | UCF -3 | 3.5 pts toward opponents | None identified | 3.5 pts toward opponents | W 41–19 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W4 | vs. Georgia TechHome | UCF -19.5 | UCF -21 | 1.5 pts toward UCF | None identified | 1.5 pts toward UCF | W 27–10 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W2 | vs. LouisvilleHome | UCF -12.5 | UCF -5.5 | 7.0 pts toward opponents | None identified | 7.0 pts toward opponents | L 14–20 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W1 | vs. South Carolina StateHome | UCF -33.5 | UCF -43.5 | 10.1 pts toward UCF | 2.1 pts toward UCF | 8.0 pts toward UCF | W 56–10 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow UncertaintySeason-Opening Quarterback Experience |
Sample: 39 market-covered games from 2022–25. Identified adjustments are rough sums of the Factors shown and are not a replacement betting line. Remaining gap is market consensus minus the OV baseline and identified adjustments. A push means the team’s scoring margin exactly matched the market line.