Bounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence
UCF enters after a loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyGeorgia State at UCF
Week 3 · Sep 19FBC Mortgage Stadium · Orlando, FL
Matchup View
Opening Line
UCF -23.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
UCF -23.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
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Current Market ConsensusUCF -18.52-book consensus · updated Sep 16
UCF -18.52-book consensus · updated Sep 16Why the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Unexplained Gap~5 pts toward Georgia StateExplore similar gapsOther conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Resolve after a close loss Contradictory evidence
UCF enters after a one-score loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,582 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyFavorite off a loss Contradictory evidence
UCF is favored after losing its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,220 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyLay it with a big favorite Developing estimate
UCF is favored by 18.2 points in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,106 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyLook-ahead game Contradictory evidence
UCF faces materially stronger TCU in its next scheduled game.
Studied in 1,044 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyTrap game Inconclusive
UCF is favored by at least seven points before facing materially stronger TCU.
Studied in 838 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyLetdown after an upset win Contradictory evidence
Georgia State was an underdog and won its previous lined game outright.
Studied in 1,127 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyTake the big underdog Contradictory evidence
Georgia State is a 18.2-point underdog in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,106 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study Opening LineUCF -23.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
UCF -23.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusUCF -21Based on 2 books
UCF -21Based on 2 booksWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Current Win Probability
Georgia State 3.3%UCF 96.7%
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Market consensus · UCF -18.5
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