Offense#115
-7.0vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play0.13 #91 FBSSuccess rate40.4% #96 FBS
Sun Belt · #123 of 138
Georgia State
Implied Strength-17.2vs. FBS average · ±3.8
Record2–0through completed games
Bowl Eligibility33%reach six wins
Strength of Schedule106thof 138 FBS teams
Schedule lens
What matters next
The headline numbers are above. Here is where the season starts to take shape.
Next matchupat UCFWeek 3 · OV Line GAST +23.5 · 3% win chance →Toughest remaining test#54 UCFWeek 3 · 3% site win chance · View matchup →
Team identity
Where the strength lives
Offense projects as the stronger unit by 3.2 rating points.
Defense#136
-10.2vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play allowed0.28 #133 FBSSuccess rate allowed46.2% #126 FBS
2025 PPA (predicted points added per play) and success rate. How this split works →
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Season outlook · 50,000 simulations
How Georgia State's 2026 could unfold
The current projection is 5–7 (4.9 expected wins), with a <0.01% chance to reach the playoff. The distribution below shows how often each regular-season win total appeared across the schedule-aware simulations.
Range of outcomes
Projected win distribution
Most common and median 5 winsCentral 80% 3–7 winsBowl eligible 33.1%
Simulated (schedule-aware)Central 80% rangeMarket win total
Postseason path
2026 playoff outlook
<0.01%Make the 12-team field
Still outside the median outcome across the schedule-aware simulations.
How the field is reached<0.01% total
Auto-bid<0.01%
At-large<0.01%
Outside field>99.9%
What could move the outlook
Biggest questions
Unresolved does not mean negative. A point estimate appears only when the historical evidence supports one.
No major preseason uncertainty signals currently clear the display threshold for Georgia State. We will update this view as matchup and in-season evidence develops.
Projection contextRoster, continuity, and market inputsView details
The market win total, returning production, coaching continuity, transfer talent, and recent NFL production help explain the evidence surrounding this projection.
Returning Production46.5%share of prior-year PPA returning for 2026
2026 Transfer Class41stof 138 FBS teams by combined portal talent
Recent NFL Draft Production52ndof 138 FBS teams by NFL talent produced
Market win total3.9Consensus preseason line
Final · Sep 4Suggested side covered
North Carolina A&TFCS
OV Win2%10Spread:GAST -27.5vs.GAST -28.5
1 FactorNorth Carolina A&T at Georgia State · Atlanta, GA · Center Parc Stadium
Pregame evidence · 2022–25
Georgia State through the lens
The OV Line is the aggregate-rating baseline. The market gap shows where the game-level consensus differed, while identified Factors show how much of that difference our research may explain. ATS records are descriptive context—not a claim that OV should outperform the market.
Market ATS17%2–10 against consensus
Average line gap4.5 pts42% inside 3 points · 5 of 12
Factor coverage58%7 of 12 games
Factor signals71% aligned5 of 7 individual observations · 0 neutral
Historical sample12 gamesmarket-covered games from 2022–25
Explanatory history
Factors present in Georgia State games
| Factor | Games | Average estimate | Aligned with market | Research status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty | 4 | 4.0 pts toward Georgia State | 75%3 of 4 directional cases | Supported · wider uncertainty |
| Rest Differential | 3 | 0.4 pts toward Georgia State | 67%2 of 3 directional cases | Supported |
Underlying recordInspect all 12 historical gamesView games
| Season | Game | OV baseline | Market | Market gap | Identified adjustment | Remaining gap | Result | Market ATS | Factors |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 · W14 | at Old DominionAway | Georgia State +27 | Georgia State +28.5 | 1.7 pts toward opponents | 3.5 pts toward Georgia State | 5.2 pts toward opponents | L 10–27 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W13 | at TroyAway | Georgia State +14.5 | Georgia State +9.5 | 4.9 pts toward Georgia State | None identified | 4.9 pts toward Georgia State | L 19–31 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W12 | vs. MarshallHome | Georgia State +6.5 | Georgia State +9.5 | 3.2 pts toward opponents | None identified | 3.2 pts toward opponents | L 18–30 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W11 | at Coastal CarolinaAway | Georgia State +7 | Georgia State +7 | 0.2 pts toward Georgia State | 1.3 pts toward Georgia State | 1.1 pts toward opponents | L 27–40 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W9 | vs. South AlabamaHome | Georgia State +6.5 | Georgia State +6 | 0.7 pts toward Georgia State | 1.0 pts toward opponents | 1.7 pts toward Georgia State | L 31–38 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W8 | at Georgia SouthernAway | Georgia State +11 | Georgia State +6.5 | 4.7 pts toward Georgia State | None identified | 4.7 pts toward Georgia State | L 24–41 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W7 | vs. App StateHome | Georgia State +6 | Georgia State +3 | 3.1 pts toward Georgia State | None identified | 3.1 pts toward Georgia State | L 20–41 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W6 | vs. James MadisonHome | Georgia State +20.5 | Georgia State +19.5 | 0.8 pts toward Georgia State | 1.0 pts toward Georgia State | 0.3 pts toward opponents | L 7–14 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W4 | at VanderbiltAway | Georgia State +35 | Georgia State +27.5 | 7.3 pts toward Georgia State | 5.0 pts toward Georgia State | 2.3 pts toward Georgia State | L 21–70 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W3 | vs. Murray StateHome | Georgia State -18.5 | Georgia State -31.5 | 13.2 pts toward Georgia State | None identified | 13.2 pts toward Georgia State | W 37–21 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W2 | vs. MemphisHome | Georgia State +28 | Georgia State +15 | 12.8 pts toward Georgia State | 3.6 pts toward Georgia State | 9.2 pts toward Georgia State | L 16–38 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W1 | at Ole MissAway | Georgia State +34.5 | Georgia State +33.5 | 1.0 pts toward Georgia State | 3.9 pts toward Georgia State | 2.9 pts toward opponents | L 7–63 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
Sample: 12 market-covered games from 2022–25. Identified adjustments are rough sums of the Factors shown and are not a replacement betting line. Remaining gap is market consensus minus the OV baseline and identified adjustments. A push means the team’s scoring margin exactly matched the market line.