Coastal Carolina at Georgia State

Week 9 · Oct 31Center Parc Stadium · Atlanta, GA

Matchup View

Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked
Opening LineGeorgia State -7Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Your ViewMake 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Last Observed Pregame Market ConsensusGeorgia State -411-book consensus · observed Oct 31, 5:34 AM EDT
Why the market may differ1 FactorOnVarsity Opening LineGeorgia State -7Factor Adjustments~2 pts toward Coastal CarolinaOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested LineGeorgia State -5Unexplained Gap~1 pt toward Coastal CarolinaExplore similar gaps OnVarsity Opening LineGeorgia State -7Factor adjustment (Open)~2 pts toward Coastal CarolinaOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Open)Georgia State -5Opening Market ConsensusGeorgia State -6.5Unexplained at open~1.5 pts toward Georgia StateSince openFactor adjustment (In-Week)≈ Net zeroOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Current)Georgia State -5Last Observed Pregame Market ConsensusGeorgia State -4Unexplained gap~1 pt toward Coastal CarolinaExplore similar gaps Coastal Carolina has extra rest~2 pts toward Coastal Carolina

Coastal Carolina has extra rest

~2 pts toward Coastal Carolina

Coastal Carolina has 7.2 extra days of rest. In comparable games, the market historically shaded about 1.8 points toward Coastal Carolina; final-margin results did not show a reliable matching improvement.

See the full study
Other conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate

These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.

Bounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence

Georgia State enters after a loss in its previous lined game.

Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Bounce-back after an upset loss Contradictory evidence

Georgia State was favored but lost its previous lined game outright.

Studied in 1,202 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Must-win after two losses Contradictory evidence

Georgia State enters after two consecutive losses in lined games.

Studied in 1,859 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Resolve after a close loss Contradictory evidence

Georgia State enters after a one-score loss in its previous lined game.

Studied in 1,582 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Favorite off a loss Contradictory evidence

Georgia State is favored after losing its previous lined game.

Studied in 1,220 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Revenge game Developing estimate

Georgia State lost the most recent meeting with Coastal Carolina.

Studied in 3,848 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Bounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence

Coastal Carolina enters after a loss in its previous lined game.

Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Resolve after a close loss Contradictory evidence

Coastal Carolina enters after a one-score loss in its previous lined game.

Studied in 1,582 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Rivalry games favor the underdog Developing estimate

Coastal Carolina is the underdog in a matchup played at least 8 times in the available prior-decade archive.

Studied in 1,849 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study
Completed gameWhat happened?Coastal Carolina 31 · Georgia State 20
Pregame OV Line
Georgia State -7
Last Observed Pregame Market Consensus
Georgia State -4
OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
Georgia State -5
Actual margin
Coastal Carolina by 11

Observed 8h 25m before kickoff. Not a verified closing line. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.

Pregame Win Probability
Coastal Carolina 29.2%Georgia State 70.8%

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Compare Teams

Coastal CarolinaVSGeorgia State

Model View

Overall Rating-12.1 · #112-11.7 · #109
Offense Rating-7.2-4.3
Defense Rating-4.9-7.4

2025 Performance

Offense PPA/Play0.060.13
Offense Success Rate36.1%40.4%
Defense PPA/Play Allowed0.200.28
Defense Success Rate Allowed44.2%46.2%

2026 Outlook

Market Win Total4.83.9
Playoff Odds<0.01%<0.01%
Strength of Schedule Rank98th114th