Offense#119
-7.7vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play0.06 #120 FBSSuccess rate36.1% #126 FBS
Sun Belt · #115 of 138
Coastal Carolina
Implied Strength-13.0vs. FBS average · ±4.5
Record1–1through completed games
Bowl Eligibility38%reach six wins
Strength of Schedule101stof 138 FBS teams
Schedule lens
What matters next
The headline numbers are above. Here is where the season starts to take shape.
Next matchupat DelawareWeek 3 · OV Line CCU +5 · 35% win chance →Toughest remaining test#78 James MadisonWeek 13 · 15% site win chance · View matchup →
Team identity
Where the strength lives
New head coach in 2026
Defense projects as the stronger unit by 2.4 rating points.
Defense#103
-5.3vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play allowed0.20 #104 FBSSuccess rate allowed44.2% #106 FBS
2025 PPA (predicted points added per play) and success rate. How this split works →
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Season outlook · 50,000 simulations
How Coastal Carolina's 2026 could unfold
The current projection is 5–7 (5.0 expected wins), with a <0.01% chance to reach the playoff. The distribution below shows how often each regular-season win total appeared across the schedule-aware simulations.
Range of outcomes
Projected win distribution
Most common and median 5 winsCentral 80% 3–7 winsBowl eligible 38.5%
Simulated (schedule-aware)Central 80% rangeMarket win total
Postseason path
2026 playoff outlook
<0.01%Make the 12-team field
Still outside the median outcome across the schedule-aware simulations.
How the field is reached<0.01% total
Auto-bid<0.01%
At-large<0.01%
Outside field>99.9%
Conference title2.1%
What could move the outlook
Biggest questions
Unresolved does not mean negative. A point estimate appears only when the historical evidence supports one.
Deuce Bailey enters with limited established experience
Deuce Bailey enters the season with only 47 career passing attempts. That uncertainty can matter more to an individual spread than to an aggregate season forecast.
17 comparable openers averaged about 0.9 points away from the low-experience quarterback's team. 1 upcoming matchup carries the Factor.How quickly does the new coaching staff take shape?
A first-year staff creates early-season implementation uncertainty even though the team-level baseline already incorporates the available preseason information.
The opener study found about a one-point market shade toward a retained coach, with a wide uncertainty range.A large share of last season's production must be replaced
15% of prior-year PPA returns, placing Coastal Carolina in the bottom quarter of the current FBS field.
This information already contributes to the team baseline; historical testing has not supported an additional generic continuity adjustment.Projection contextRoster, continuity, and market inputsView details
The market win total, returning production, coaching continuity, transfer talent, and recent NFL production help explain the evidence surrounding this projection.
Returning Production15.4%share of prior-year PPA returning for 2026
Coaching ContinuityNew HCfirst season under a new head coach
2026 Transfer Class29thof 138 FBS teams by combined portal talent
Recent NFL Draft Production117thof 138 FBS teams by NFL talent produced
Market win total4.8Consensus preseason line
Final · Sep 5
Spread:WVU -21.5vs.WVU -21
2 FactorsCoastal Carolina at West Virginia · Morgantown, WV · Milan Puskar Stadium
Pregame evidence · 2022–25
Coastal Carolina through the lens
The OV Line is the aggregate-rating baseline. The market gap shows where the game-level consensus differed, while identified Factors show how much of that difference our research may explain. ATS records are descriptive context—not a claim that OV should outperform the market.
Market ATS50%8–8 against consensus
Average line gap3.8 pts31% inside 3 points · 5 of 16
Factor coverage38%6 of 16 games
Factor signals100% aligned7 of 7 individual observations · 0 neutral
Historical sample16 gamesmarket-covered games from 2022–25
Explanatory history
Factors present in Coastal Carolina games
| Factor | Games | Average estimate | Aligned with market | Research status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty | 3 | 2.3 pts toward Coastal Carolina | 100%3 of 3 directional cases | Supported · wider uncertainty |
| Rest Differential | 3 | 0.7 pts toward Coastal Carolina | 100%3 of 3 directional cases | Supported |
| Season-Opening Quarterback Experience | 1 | 0.9 pts toward Coastal Carolina | 100%1 of 1 directional cases | Research candidate |
Underlying recordInspect all 16 historical gamesView games
| Season | Game | OV baseline | Market | Market gap | Identified adjustment | Remaining gap | Result | Market ATS | Factors |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 · W14 | vs. James MadisonHome | Coastal Carolina +19.5 | Coastal Carolina +24 | 4.4 pts toward opponents | None identified | 4.4 pts toward opponents | L 10–59 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W13 | at South CarolinaAway | Coastal Carolina +28 | Coastal Carolina +24 | 3.8 pts toward Coastal Carolina | 3.6 pts toward Coastal Carolina | 0.2 pts toward Coastal Carolina | L 7–51 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W12 | at Georgia SouthernAway | Coastal Carolina +7.5 | Coastal Carolina +3 | 4.7 pts toward Coastal Carolina | None identified | 4.7 pts toward Coastal Carolina | L 40–45 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W11 | vs. Georgia StateHome | Coastal Carolina -7 | Coastal Carolina -7 | 0.2 pts toward opponents | 1.3 pts toward opponents | 1.1 pts toward Coastal Carolina | W 40–27 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W10 | vs. MarshallHome | Coastal Carolina +4 | Coastal Carolina +7 | 3.0 pts toward opponents | None identified | 3.0 pts toward opponents | W 44–27 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W8 | at App StateAway | Coastal Carolina +9 | Coastal Carolina +10.5 | 1.3 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.3 pts toward opponents | W 45–37 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W7 | vs. UL MonroeHome | Coastal Carolina -2.5 | Coastal Carolina +3 | 5.3 pts toward opponents | None identified | 5.3 pts toward opponents | W 23–8 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W6 | at Old DominionAway | Coastal Carolina +22.5 | Coastal Carolina +18.5 | 3.8 pts toward Coastal Carolina | 4.6 pts toward Coastal Carolina | 0.8 pts toward opponents | L 7–47 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow UncertaintyRest Differential |
| 2025 · W4 | at South AlabamaAway | Coastal Carolina +12.5 | Coastal Carolina +14.5 | 2.0 pts toward opponents | None identified | 2.0 pts toward opponents | W 38–20 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W3 | vs. East CarolinaHome | Coastal Carolina +14 | Coastal Carolina +7 | 6.8 pts toward Coastal Carolina | None identified | 6.8 pts toward Coastal Carolina | L 0–38 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W2 | vs. Charleston SouthernHome | Coastal Carolina -21 | Coastal Carolina -28 | 7.1 pts toward Coastal Carolina | None identified | 7.1 pts toward Coastal Carolina | W 13–0 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W1 | at VirginiaAway | Coastal Carolina +10.5 | Coastal Carolina +13.5 | 3.0 pts toward opponents | None identified | 3.0 pts toward opponents | L 7–48 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W10 | vs. App StateHome | Coastal Carolina +6.5 | Coastal Carolina +3 | 3.6 pts toward Coastal Carolina | None identified | 3.6 pts toward Coastal Carolina | W 35–28 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W9 | at MarshallAway | Coastal Carolina +11.5 | Coastal Carolina +2.5 | 8.8 pts toward Coastal Carolina | 1.7 pts toward Coastal Carolina | 7.0 pts toward Coastal Carolina | W 24–13 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2022 · W2 | vs. Gardner-WebbHome | Coastal Carolina -31 | Coastal Carolina -32.5 | 1.4 pts toward Coastal Carolina | 0.6 pts toward Coastal Carolina | 0.8 pts toward Coastal Carolina | W 31–27 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2022 · W1 | vs. ArmyHome | Coastal Carolina +0.5 | Coastal Carolina -1.5 | 2.1 pts toward Coastal Carolina | 0.9 pts toward Coastal Carolina | 1.3 pts toward Coastal Carolina | W 38–28 | W | Season-Opening Quarterback Experience |
Sample: 16 market-covered games from 2022–25. Identified adjustments are rough sums of the Factors shown and are not a replacement betting line. Remaining gap is market consensus minus the OV baseline and identified adjustments. A push means the team’s scoring margin exactly matched the market line.