Matchup View
West Virginia -21.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?West Virginia -21.52-book consensus · updated Aug 26Comparable games put West Virginia's chance of winning by at least 28 at about 31%. Historically, the market shaded about 1.1 points toward Coastal Carolina (average-estimate range 0.7–2.1), but actual results were too noisy to treat that as a dependable OV Line adjustment.
See the full studyThis locked page preserves the estimate OnVarsity showed before kickoff. The study was revalidated afterward and contributes zero points to new matchups.
Deuce Bailey is expected to start at quarterback for Coastal Carolina with only 47 career passing attempts. In 17 comparable FBS-FBS openers with a named starter below 50 career attempts, markets averaged about 0.9 points away from that team after ordinary game-flow context was accounted for.
See the full studyThese conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
West Virginia is favored by 21.5 points in the current market consensus.
Studied in 450 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyCoastal Carolina is a 21.5-point underdog in the current market consensus.
Studied in 450 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRyan Beard begins his first Coastal Carolina season; West Virginia returns Rich Rodriguez. Across 38 comparable games, markets averaged 0.86 points toward the returning coach at the final recorded line in the full sample. However, the 24 games with provider-level opening data centered near zero at opening, at the final recorded line, and in later movement. We identify the condition for transparency but apply no Factor points.
Studied in 38 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyThis preserves the pregame comparison beside the result. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.
West Virginia -21.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?West Virginia -17.5Based on 2 booksComparable games put West Virginia's chance of winning by at least 28 at about 31%. Historically, the market shaded about 1.1 points toward Coastal Carolina (average-estimate range 0.7–2.1), but actual results were too noisy to treat that as a dependable OV Line adjustment.
See the full studyDeuce Bailey is expected to start at quarterback for Coastal Carolina with only 47 career passing attempts. In 17 comparable FBS-FBS openers with a named starter below 50 career attempts, markets averaged about 0.9 points away from that team after ordinary game-flow context was accounted for.
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Market consensus · West Virginia -21.5
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