Offense#94
-3.3vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play0.16 #72 FBSSuccess rate43.9% #49 FBS
Sun Belt · #98 of 138
Marshall
Implied Strength-9.0vs. FBS average · ±3.4
Record1–1through completed games
Bowl Eligibility85%reach six wins
Strength of Schedule117thof 138 FBS teams
Schedule lens
What matters next
The headline numbers are above. Here is where the season starts to take shape.
Next matchupat Missouri StateWeek 3 · OV Line MRSH -7 · 70% win chance →Toughest remaining test#78 James MadisonWeek 5 · 24% site win chance · View matchup →
Team identity
Where the strength lives
Offense projects as the stronger unit by 2.5 rating points.
Defense#108
-5.8vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play allowed0.16 #73 FBSSuccess rate allowed38.6% #36 FBS
2025 PPA (predicted points added per play) and success rate. How this split works →
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Season outlook · 50,000 simulations
How Marshall's 2026 could unfold
The current projection is 7–5 (7.1 expected wins), with a <0.01% chance to reach the playoff. The distribution below shows how often each regular-season win total appeared across the schedule-aware simulations.
Range of outcomes
Projected win distribution
Most common and median 7 winsCentral 80% 5–9 winsBowl eligible 84.8%
Simulated (schedule-aware)Central 80% rangeMarket win total
Postseason path
2026 playoff outlook
0.2%Make the 12-team field
Still outside the median outcome across the schedule-aware simulations.
How the field is reached0.2% total
Auto-bid0.2%
At-large<0.01%
Outside field99.8%
Conference title6.0%
What could move the outlook
Biggest questions
Unresolved does not mean negative. A point estimate appears only when the historical evidence supports one.
No major preseason uncertainty signals currently clear the display threshold for Marshall. We will update this view as matchup and in-season evidence develops.
Projection contextRoster, continuity, and market inputsView details
The market win total, returning production, coaching continuity, transfer talent, and recent NFL production help explain the evidence surrounding this projection.
Returning Production98.8%share of prior-year PPA returning for 2026
2026 Transfer Class69thof 138 FBS teams by combined portal talent
Recent NFL Draft Production102ndof 138 FBS teams by NFL talent produced
Market win total7.4Consensus preseason line
Pregame evidence · 2022–25
Marshall through the lens
The OV Line is the aggregate-rating baseline. The market gap shows where the game-level consensus differed, while identified Factors show how much of that difference our research may explain. ATS records are descriptive context—not a claim that OV should outperform the market.
Market ATS56%10–8 against consensus
Average line gap5.0 pts33% inside 3 points · 6 of 18
Factor coverage28%5 of 18 games
Factor signals67% aligned4 of 6 individual observations · 1 neutral
Historical sample18 gamesmarket-covered games from 2022–25
Explanatory history
Factors present in Marshall games
| Factor | Games | Average estimate | Aligned with market | Research status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty | 3 | 2.5 pts toward Marshall | 67%2 of 3 directional cases | Supported · wider uncertainty |
| Rest Differential | 2 | 0.3 pts toward opponents | 50%1 of 2 directional cases | Supported |
| Season Opener with a New Head Coach | 1 | No net direction | —0 of 0 directional cases | No separate adjustment |
| Season-Opening Quarterback Experience | 1 | 0.9 pts toward opponents | 100%1 of 1 directional cases | Research candidate |
Underlying recordInspect all 18 historical gamesView games
| Season | Game | OV baseline | Market | Market gap | Identified adjustment | Remaining gap | Result | Market ATS | Factors |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 · W14 | vs. Georgia SouthernHome | Marshall -8.5 | Marshall -10.5 | 1.9 pts toward Marshall | None identified | 1.9 pts toward Marshall | L 19–24 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W13 | at App StateAway | Marshall 0 | Marshall -4 | 3.8 pts toward Marshall | None identified | 3.8 pts toward Marshall | L 24–26 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W12 | at Georgia StateAway | Marshall -6.5 | Marshall -9.5 | 3.2 pts toward Marshall | None identified | 3.2 pts toward Marshall | W 30–18 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W11 | vs. James MadisonHome | Marshall +12 | Marshall +13.5 | 1.5 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.5 pts toward opponents | L 23–35 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W10 | at Coastal CarolinaAway | Marshall -4 | Marshall -7 | 3.0 pts toward Marshall | None identified | 3.0 pts toward Marshall | L 27–44 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W8 | vs. Texas StateHome | Marshall +4 | Marshall +3 | 0.8 pts toward Marshall | None identified | 0.8 pts toward Marshall | W 40–37 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W7 | vs. Old DominionHome | Marshall +11.5 | Marshall +14.5 | 3.2 pts toward opponents | 1.1 pts toward Marshall | 4.2 pts toward opponents | W 48–24 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W5 | at LouisianaAway | Marshall +4.5 | Marshall -2.5 | 7.2 pts toward Marshall | None identified | 7.2 pts toward Marshall | L 51–54 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W4 | at Middle TennesseeAway | Marshall -7.5 | Marshall -2.5 | 4.9 pts toward opponents | None identified | 4.9 pts toward opponents | W 42–28 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W3 | vs. Eastern KentuckyHome | Marshall -10 | Marshall -15 | 4.9 pts toward Marshall | None identified | 4.9 pts toward Marshall | W 38–7 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W2 | vs. Missouri StateHome | Marshall -14 | Marshall -7.5 | 6.7 pts toward opponents | None identified | 6.7 pts toward opponents | L 20–21 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W1 | at GeorgiaAway | Marshall +38 | Marshall +38.5 | 0.4 pts toward opponents | 3.7 pts toward Marshall | 4.1 pts toward opponents | L 7–45 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow UncertaintySeason-Opening Quarterback ExperienceSeason Opener with a New Head Coach |
| 2022 · W11 | vs. App StateHome | Marshall +2 | Marshall +2 | 0.2 pts toward Marshall | None identified | 0.2 pts toward Marshall | W 28–21 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W9 | vs. Coastal CarolinaHome | Marshall -11.5 | Marshall -2.5 | 8.8 pts toward opponents | 1.7 pts toward opponents | 7.0 pts toward opponents | L 13–24 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2022 · W7 | vs. LouisianaHome | Marshall -5 | Marshall -10.5 | 5.5 pts toward Marshall | None identified | 5.5 pts toward Marshall | L 13–23 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W5 | vs. Gardner-WebbHome | Marshall -29 | Marshall -31 | 2.1 pts toward Marshall | 0.9 pts toward Marshall | 1.2 pts toward Marshall | W 28–7 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2022 · W2 | at Notre DameAway | Marshall +2.5 | Marshall +20.5 | 17.9 pts toward opponents | None identified | 17.9 pts toward opponents | W 26–21 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W1 | vs. Norfolk StateHome | Marshall -27 | Marshall -40.5 | 13.7 pts toward Marshall | 2.0 pts toward Marshall | 11.6 pts toward Marshall | W 55–3 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
Sample: 18 market-covered games from 2022–25. Identified adjustments are rough sums of the Factors shown and are not a replacement betting line. Remaining gap is market consensus minus the OV baseline and identified adjustments. A push means the team’s scoring margin exactly matched the market line.