Bounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence
Missouri State enters after a loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyMarshall at Missouri State
Week 3 · Sep 19Plaster Sports Complex · Springfield, MO
Matchup View
Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked Opening Line
Marshall -7Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Marshall -7Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
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Kickoff-adjacent Market ConsensusMarshall -410-book consensus · observed Sep 19, 6:15 PM EDT
Marshall -410-book consensus · observed Sep 19, 6:15 PM EDTWhy the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Unexplained Gap~3 pts toward Missouri StateExplore similar gapsOther conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Bounce-back after a bad loss Contradictory evidence
Missouri State enters after losing its previous lined game by 50 points.
Studied in 1,930 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyHome-underdog value Inconclusive
Missouri State is the home underdog in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,402 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyLook-ahead game Contradictory evidence
Missouri State faces materially stronger SMU in its next scheduled game.
Studied in 1,044 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyClose-win regression Developing estimate
Marshall enters after a one-score win in its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,658 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRoad-favorite strength Inconclusive
Marshall is the road favorite in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,402 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge game Developing estimate
Marshall lost the most recent meeting with Missouri State.
Studied in 3,848 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyCompleted gameWhat happened?Marshall 30 · Missouri State 24
- Pregame OV Line
- Marshall -7
- Kickoff-adjacent Market Consensus
- Marshall -4
- OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
- No quantified Factors
- Actual margin
- Marshall by 6
Observed 0h 14m before kickoff. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.
Opening LineMarshall -7Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Marshall -7Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusMarshall -3.5Earliest observed 9-book consensus
Marshall -3.5Earliest observed 9-book consensusWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Pregame Win Probability
Marshall 70.3%Missouri State 29.7%
Make Your Picks
Open until scheduled kickoffWho will win this game?
Straight-up winner
Who will cover the spread?
Market consensus · Marshall -4
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