Offense#124
-8.6vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play0.17 #66 FBSSuccess rate39.3% #110 FBS
Conference USA · #128 of 138
Missouri State
Implied Strength-18.4vs. FBS average · ±4.3
Record1–1through completed games
Bowl Eligibility22%reach six wins
Strength of Schedule99thof 138 FBS teams
Schedule lens
What matters next
The headline numbers are above. Here is where the season starts to take shape.
Next matchupvs. MarshallWeek 3 · OV Line MOST +7 · 30% win chance →Toughest remaining test#26 SMUWeek 4 · <0.01% site win chance · View matchup →
Team identity
Where the strength lives
New head coach in 2026
Offense projects as the stronger unit by 1.1 rating points.
Defense#130
-9.7vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play allowed0.24 #122 FBSSuccess rate allowed42.6% #88 FBS
2025 PPA (predicted points added per play) and success rate. How this split works →
Build Your Ratings
Who would win on a neutral field?
Pick the team you think is better. Your answers help build your personal ratings.
VS
Looks like you’re high on this year.
Want to explore new teams or keep comparing ?
Stored only in this browser -- nothing is sent anywhere.
Season outlook · 50,000 simulations
How Missouri State's 2026 could unfold
The current projection is 4–8 (4.2 expected wins), with a <0.01% chance to reach the playoff. The distribution below shows how often each regular-season win total appeared across the schedule-aware simulations.
Range of outcomes
Projected win distribution
Most common and median 4 winsCentral 80% 2–6 winsBowl eligible 21.9%
Simulated (schedule-aware)Central 80% rangeMarket win total
Postseason path
2026 playoff outlook
<0.01%Make the 12-team field
Still outside the median outcome across the schedule-aware simulations.
How the field is reached<0.01% total
Auto-bid<0.01%
At-large<0.01%
Outside field>99.9%
Conference title2.0%
What could move the outlook
Biggest questions
Unresolved does not mean negative. A point estimate appears only when the historical evidence supports one.
How quickly does the new coaching staff take shape?
A first-year staff creates early-season implementation uncertainty even though the team-level baseline already incorporates the available preseason information.
The opener study found about a one-point market shade toward a retained coach, with a wide uncertainty range.Projection contextRoster, continuity, and market inputsView details
The market win total, returning production, coaching continuity, transfer talent, and recent NFL production help explain the evidence surrounding this projection.
Returning Production31.3%share of prior-year PPA returning for 2026
Coaching ContinuityNew HCfirst season under a new head coach
2026 Transfer Class68thof 138 FBS teams by combined portal talent
Recent NFL Draft Production128thof 138 FBS teams by NFL talent produced
Market win total3.9Consensus preseason line
Final · Sep 5Suggested side did not cover
Spread:TA&M -41vs.TA&M -39
1 FactorMissouri State at Texas A&M · College Station, TX · Kyle Field
6:00 PM · Oct 8
Missouri State at Western Kentucky · Bowling Green, KY · Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium
Pregame evidence · 2022–25
Missouri State through the lens
The OV Line is the aggregate-rating baseline. The market gap shows where the game-level consensus differed, while identified Factors show how much of that difference our research may explain. ATS records are descriptive context—not a claim that OV should outperform the market.
Market ATS64%9–5 against consensus
Average line gap3.7 pts64% inside 3 points · 9 of 14
Factor coverage36%5 of 14 games
Factor signals60% aligned3 of 5 individual observations · 0 neutral
Historical sample14 gamesmarket-covered games from 2022–25
Explanatory history
Factors present in Missouri State games
| Factor | Games | Average estimate | Aligned with market | Research status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty | 4 | 0.7 pts toward Missouri State | 50%2 of 4 directional cases | Supported · wider uncertainty |
| Rest Differential | 1 | 1.5 pts toward Missouri State | 100%1 of 1 directional cases | Supported |
Underlying recordInspect all 14 historical gamesView games
| Season | Game | OV baseline | Market | Market gap | Identified adjustment | Remaining gap | Result | Market ATS | Factors |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 · W14 | vs. Louisiana TechHome | Missouri State +0.5 | Missouri State -2.5 | 2.9 pts toward Missouri State | None identified | 2.9 pts toward Missouri State | L 30–42 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W13 | at Kennesaw StateAway | Missouri State +7 | Missouri State +6.5 | 0.3 pts toward Missouri State | None identified | 0.3 pts toward Missouri State | L 34–41 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W12 | vs. UTEPHome | Missouri State -6 | Missouri State -6.5 | 0.6 pts toward Missouri State | None identified | 0.6 pts toward Missouri State | W 38–24 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W11 | at LibertyAway | Missouri State +8.5 | Missouri State +7.5 | 1.2 pts toward Missouri State | None identified | 1.2 pts toward Missouri State | W 21–17 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W10 | vs. Florida InternationalHome | Missouri State -5.5 | Missouri State -3 | 2.7 pts toward opponents | None identified | 2.7 pts toward opponents | W 28–21 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W9 | at New Mexico StateAway | Missouri State -1 | Missouri State -2.5 | 1.5 pts toward Missouri State | 1.5 pts toward Missouri State | No net direction | W 24–17 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W7 | at Middle TennesseeAway | Missouri State -4 | Missouri State -3 | 1.0 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.0 pts toward opponents | W 22–20 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W5 | vs. Western KentuckyHome | Missouri State +4.5 | Missouri State +3.5 | 1.2 pts toward Missouri State | None identified | 1.2 pts toward Missouri State | L 22–27 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W4 | vs. UT MartinHome | Missouri State 0 | Missouri State -14.5 | 14.7 pts toward Missouri State | None identified | 14.7 pts toward Missouri State | W 42–10 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W3 | vs. SMUHome | Missouri State +24.5 | Missouri State +28.5 | 4.1 pts toward opponents | 3.1 pts toward Missouri State | 7.2 pts toward opponents | L 10–28 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W2 | at MarshallAway | Missouri State +14 | Missouri State +7.5 | 6.7 pts toward Missouri State | None identified | 6.7 pts toward Missouri State | W 21–20 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W1 | at USCAway | Missouri State +31.5 | Missouri State +36.5 | 5.2 pts toward opponents | 3.3 pts toward Missouri State | 8.4 pts toward opponents | L 13–73 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2023 · W1 | at KansasAway | Missouri State +25 | Missouri State +32.5 | 7.6 pts toward opponents | 2.5 pts toward opponents | 5.0 pts toward opponents | L 17–48 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2022 · W3 | at ArkansasAway | Missouri State +24.5 | Missouri State +26 | 1.7 pts toward opponents | 1.1 pts toward opponents | 0.7 pts toward opponents | L 27–38 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
Sample: 14 market-covered games from 2022–25. Identified adjustments are rough sums of the Factors shown and are not a replacement betting line. Remaining gap is market consensus minus the OV baseline and identified adjustments. A push means the team’s scoring margin exactly matched the market line.