Bounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence
Missouri State enters after a loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studySam Houston at Missouri State
Week 9 · Oct 27Plaster Sports Complex · Springfield, MO
Matchup View
Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked Opening Line
Missouri State -5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Missouri State -5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
Make 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Last Observed Pregame Market ConsensusMissouri State -5.511-book consensus · observed Oct 26, 4:23 PM EDT
Missouri State -5.511-book consensus · observed Oct 26, 4:23 PM EDTWhy the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Unexplained Gap~0.5 pts toward Missouri StateExplore similar gapsOther conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Bounce-back after a bad loss Contradictory evidence
Missouri State enters after losing its previous lined game by 23 points.
Studied in 1,930 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyFavorite off a loss Contradictory evidence
Missouri State is favored after losing its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,220 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyBounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence
Sam Houston enters after a loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyMust-win after two losses Contradictory evidence
Sam Houston enters after two consecutive losses in lined games.
Studied in 1,859 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyMust-win after three losses Contradictory evidence
Sam Houston enters after three consecutive losses in lined games.
Studied in 1,169 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyResolve after a close loss Contradictory evidence
Sam Houston enters after a one-score loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,582 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyCold against-the-spread trend Developing estimate
Sam Houston has failed to cover at least three consecutive lined games.
Studied in 939 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyCompleted gameWhat happened?Sam Houston 3 · Missouri State 24
- Pregame OV Line
- Missouri State -5
- Last Observed Pregame Market Consensus
- Missouri State -5.5
- OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
- No quantified Factors
- Actual margin
- Missouri State by 21
Observed 27h 36m before kickoff. Not a verified closing line. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.
Opening LineMissouri State -5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Missouri State -5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusMissouri State -6Earliest observed 11-book consensus
Missouri State -6Earliest observed 11-book consensusWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Pregame Win Probability
Sam Houston 34.9%Missouri State 65.1%
Make Your Picks
Open until scheduled kickoffWho will win this game?
Straight-up winner
Who will cover the spread?
Market consensus · Missouri State -5.5
Stored only in this browser — nothing is sent anywhere. Picks close at Oct 27.