Offense#131
-11.4vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play0.00 #132 FBSSuccess rate36.3% #125 FBS
Conference USA · #135 of 138
Sam Houston
Implied Strength-21.5vs. FBS average · ±3.3
Record0–2through completed games
Bowl Eligibility7%reach six wins
Strength of Schedule111thof 138 FBS teams
Schedule lens
What matters next
The headline numbers are above. Here is where the season starts to take shape.
Next matchupvs. NichollsWeek 3 · OV Line SHSU -12 · 63% win chance →Toughest remaining test#8 Texas TechWeek 4 · <0.01% site win chance · View matchup →
Team identity
Where the strength lives
Defense projects as the stronger unit by 1.2 rating points.
Defense#135
-10.1vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play allowed0.24 #118 FBSSuccess rate allowed47.9% #130 FBS
2025 PPA (predicted points added per play) and success rate. How this split works →
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Season outlook · 50,000 simulations
How Sam Houston's 2026 could unfold
The current projection is 3–9 (3.4 expected wins), with a <0.01% chance to reach the playoff. The distribution below shows how often each regular-season win total appeared across the schedule-aware simulations.
Range of outcomes
Projected win distribution
Most common and median 3 winsCentral 80% 2–5 winsBowl eligible 7.1%
Simulated (schedule-aware)Central 80% rangeMarket win total
Postseason path
2026 playoff outlook
<0.01%Make the 12-team field
Still outside the median outcome across the schedule-aware simulations.
How the field is reached<0.01% total
Auto-bid<0.01%
At-large<0.01%
Outside field>99.9%
What could move the outlook
Biggest questions
Unresolved does not mean negative. A point estimate appears only when the historical evidence supports one.
No major preseason uncertainty signals currently clear the display threshold for Sam Houston. We will update this view as matchup and in-season evidence develops.
Projection contextRoster, continuity, and market inputsView details
The market win total, returning production, coaching continuity, transfer talent, and recent NFL production help explain the evidence surrounding this projection.
Returning Production57.7%share of prior-year PPA returning for 2026
2026 Transfer Class76thof 138 FBS teams by combined portal talent
Recent NFL Draft Production135thof 138 FBS teams by NFL talent produced
Market win total3.1Consensus preseason line
Final · Sep 5Suggested side did not cover
Sam Houston at Troy · Troy, AL · Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)
Pregame evidence · 2022–25
Sam Houston through the lens
The OV Line is the aggregate-rating baseline. The market gap shows where the game-level consensus differed, while identified Factors show how much of that difference our research may explain. ATS records are descriptive context—not a claim that OV should outperform the market.
Market ATS31%4–9 against consensus
Average line gap2.0 pts69% inside 3 points · 9 of 13
Factor coverage46%6 of 13 games
Factor signals71% aligned5 of 7 individual observations · 1 neutral
Historical sample13 gamesmarket-covered games from 2022–25
Explanatory history
Factors present in Sam Houston games
| Factor | Games | Average estimate | Aligned with market | Research status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rest Differential | 3 | 1.5 pts toward Sam Houston | 67%2 of 3 directional cases | Supported |
| Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty | 2 | 2.5 pts toward Sam Houston | 100%2 of 2 directional cases | Supported · wider uncertainty |
| Neutral-Site Same-State Context | 1 | 1.5 pts toward opponents | 0%0 of 1 directional cases | Supported · wider uncertainty |
| Season Opener with a New Head Coach | 1 | No net direction | —0 of 0 directional cases | No separate adjustment |
| Season-Opening Quarterback Experience | 1 | 0.8 pts toward opponents | 100%1 of 1 directional cases | Research candidate |
Underlying recordInspect all 13 historical gamesView games
| Season | Game | OV baseline | Market | Market gap | Identified adjustment | Remaining gap | Result | Market ATS | Factors |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 · W14 | vs. Florida InternationalNeutral | Sam Houston +10 | Sam Houston +10.5 | 0.7 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.7 pts toward opponents | L 16–56 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W13 | at Middle TennesseeAway | Sam Houston +5.5 | Sam Houston +6.5 | 0.8 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.8 pts toward opponents | L 17–31 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W12 | vs. DelawareNeutral | Sam Houston +8 | Sam Houston +11.5 | 3.5 pts toward opponents | None identified | 3.5 pts toward opponents | W 26–23 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W11 | at Oregon StateAway | Sam Houston +17 | Sam Houston +21 | 3.9 pts toward opponents | None identified | 3.9 pts toward opponents | W 21–17 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W10 | at Louisiana TechAway | Sam Houston +16 | Sam Houston +16.5 | 0.6 pts toward opponents | 1.0 pts toward Sam Houston | 1.6 pts toward opponents | L 14–55 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W8 | vs. UTEPNeutral | Sam Houston +4 | Sam Houston +3.5 | 0.5 pts toward Sam Houston | 1.5 pts toward opponents | 2.0 pts toward Sam Houston | L 17–35 | L | Neutral-Site Same-State Context |
| 2025 · W7 | vs. Jacksonville StateNeutral | Sam Houston +7 | Sam Houston +7 | No net direction | None identified | No net direction | L 27–29 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W6 | at New Mexico StateAway | Sam Houston -1 | Sam Houston -2 | 0.8 pts toward Sam Houston | 1.7 pts toward Sam Houston | 1.0 pts toward opponents | L 10–37 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W4 | at TexasAway | Sam Houston +43 | Sam Houston +39.5 | 3.5 pts toward Sam Houston | 8.5 pts toward Sam Houston | 5.0 pts toward opponents | L 0–55 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow UncertaintyRest Differential |
| 2025 · W2 | at Hawai'iAway | Sam Houston +10 | Sam Houston +7.5 | 2.7 pts toward Sam Houston | None identified | 2.7 pts toward Sam Houston | L 20–37 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W1 | vs. UNLVNeutral | Sam Houston +10.5 | Sam Houston +9 | 1.4 pts toward Sam Houston | None identified | 1.4 pts toward Sam Houston | L 21–38 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W1 | at Western KentuckyAway | Sam Houston +8 | Sam Houston +9.5 | 1.3 pts toward opponents | No net direction | 1.3 pts toward opponents | L 24–41 | L | Season Opener with a New Head Coach |
| 2022 · W1 | at Texas A&MAway | Sam Houston +30 | Sam Houston +36.5 | 6.4 pts toward opponents | 2.5 pts toward opponents | 3.9 pts toward opponents | L 0–31 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow UncertaintySeason-Opening Quarterback Experience |
Sample: 13 market-covered games from 2022–25. Identified adjustments are rough sums of the Factors shown and are not a replacement betting line. Remaining gap is market consensus minus the OV baseline and identified adjustments. A push means the team’s scoring margin exactly matched the market line.