Lay it with a big favorite Developing estimate
Troy is favored by 16.8 points in the current market consensus.
Studied in 450 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studySam Houston at Troy
Week 1 · Sep 5Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL) · Troy, AL
Matchup View
Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked Opening Line
Troy -19.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Troy -19.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
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Kickoff-adjacent Market ConsensusTroy -16.510-book consensus · observed Sep 5, 6:45 PM EDT
Troy -16.510-book consensus · observed Sep 5, 6:45 PM EDTWhy the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Unexplained Gap~3 pts toward Sam HoustonExplore similar gapsOther conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Take the big underdog Contradictory evidence
Sam Houston is a 16.8-point underdog in the current market consensus.
Studied in 450 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyCompleted gameWhat happened?Sam Houston 21 · Troy 24
- Pregame OV Line
- Troy -19.5
- Kickoff-adjacent Market Consensus
- Troy -16.5
- OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
- No quantified Factors
- Actual margin
- Troy by 3
Observed 0h 14m before kickoff. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.
Opening LineTroy -19.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Troy -19.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusTroy -17.52-book consensus · CFBD fallback
Troy -17.52-book consensus · CFBD fallbackWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Pregame Win Probability
Sam Houston 8.0%Troy 92.0%
Make Your Picks
Open until scheduled kickoffWho will win this game?
Straight-up winner
Who will cover the spread?
Market consensus · Troy -16.5
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