New Mexico State at Sam Houston

Week 8 · Oct 21Elliott T. Bowers Stadium · Huntsville, TX

Matchup View

Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked
Opening LineNew Mexico State -1.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Your ViewMake 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Last Observed Pregame Market ConsensusNew Mexico State -2.511-book consensus · observed Oct 21, 7:11 AM EDT
Why the market may differ1 FactorOnVarsity Opening LineNew Mexico State -1.5Factor Adjustments~2 pts toward New Mexico StateOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested LineNew Mexico State -3.5Unexplained Gap~1 pt toward Sam HoustonExplore similar gaps OnVarsity Opening LineNew Mexico State -1.5Factor adjustment (Open)~2 pts toward New Mexico StateOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Open)New Mexico State -3.5Opening Market ConsensusNew Mexico State -2.5Unexplained at open~1 pt toward Sam HoustonSince openFactor adjustment (In-Week)≈ Net zeroOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Current)New Mexico State -3.5Last Observed Pregame Market ConsensusNew Mexico State -2.5Unexplained gap~1 pt toward Sam HoustonExplore similar gaps New Mexico State has extra rest~2 pts toward New Mexico State

New Mexico State has extra rest

~2 pts toward New Mexico State

New Mexico State has 7.0 extra days of rest. In comparable games, the market historically shaded about 1.8 points toward New Mexico State; final-margin results did not show a reliable matching improvement.

See the full study
Other conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate

These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.

Bounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence

Sam Houston enters after a loss in its previous lined game.

Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Must-win after two losses Contradictory evidence

Sam Houston enters after two consecutive losses in lined games.

Studied in 1,859 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Must-win after three losses Contradictory evidence

Sam Houston enters after three consecutive losses in lined games.

Studied in 1,169 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Cold against-the-spread trend Developing estimate

Sam Houston has failed to cover at least three consecutive lined games.

Studied in 939 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Home-underdog value Inconclusive

Sam Houston is the home underdog in the current market consensus.

Studied in 1,402 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Revenge game Developing estimate

Sam Houston lost the most recent meeting with New Mexico State.

Studied in 3,848 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Revenge after humiliation Developing estimate

Sam Houston lost the most recent meeting with New Mexico State by at least 14 points.

Studied in 1,910 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Bounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence

New Mexico State enters after a loss in its previous lined game.

Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Bounce-back after a bad loss Contradictory evidence

New Mexico State enters after losing its previous lined game by 19 points.

Studied in 1,930 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Favorite off a loss Contradictory evidence

New Mexico State is favored after losing its previous lined game.

Studied in 1,220 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Road-favorite strength Inconclusive

New Mexico State is the road favorite in the current market consensus.

Studied in 1,402 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study
Completed gameWhat happened?New Mexico State 30 · Sam Houston 24
Pregame OV Line
New Mexico State -1.5
Last Observed Pregame Market Consensus
New Mexico State -2.5
OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
New Mexico State -3.5
Actual margin
New Mexico State by 6

Observed 12h 48m before kickoff. Not a verified closing line. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.

Pregame Win Probability
New Mexico State 54.1%Sam Houston 45.9%

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Compare Teams

New Mexico StateVSSam Houston

Model View

Overall Rating-18.0 · #126-22.3 · #133
Offense Rating-12.0-11.8
Defense Rating-6.0-10.5

2025 Performance

Offense PPA/Play0.030.00
Offense Success Rate36.4%36.3%
Defense PPA/Play Allowed0.100.24
Defense Success Rate Allowed41.9%47.9%

2026 Outlook

Market Win Total4.43.1
Playoff Odds<0.01%<0.01%
Strength of Schedule Rank117th115th