Nicholls at Sam Houston

Week 3 · Sep 19Elliott T. Bowers Stadium · Huntsville, TX

Matchup View

Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked
Opening LineSam Houston -12Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Your ViewMake 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Kickoff-adjacent Market ConsensusSam Houston -217-book consensus · observed Sep 19, 6:45 PM EDT
Why the market may differ1 FactorOnVarsity Opening LineSam Houston -12Factor Adjustments~2 pts toward NichollsOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested LineSam Houston -10Unexplained Gap~11 pts toward Sam HoustonExplore similar gaps OnVarsity Opening LineSam Houston -12Factor adjustment (Open)~2 pts toward NichollsOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Open)Sam Houston -10Opening Market ConsensusSam Houston -18.5Unexplained at open~8.5 pts toward Sam HoustonSince openFactor adjustment (In-Week)≈ Net zeroOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Current)Sam Houston -10Kickoff-adjacent Market ConsensusSam Houston -21Unexplained gap~11 pts toward Sam HoustonExplore similar gaps Nicholls has extra rest~2 pts toward Nicholls

Nicholls has extra rest

~2 pts toward Nicholls

Nicholls has 7.0 extra days of rest. In comparable games, the market historically shaded about 1.8 points toward Nicholls; final-margin results did not show a reliable matching improvement.

See the full study
Completed gameWhat happened?Nicholls 0 · Sam Houston 59
Pregame OV Line
Sam Houston -12
Kickoff-adjacent Market Consensus
Sam Houston -21
OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
Sam Houston -10
Actual margin
Sam Houston by 59

Observed 0h 14m before kickoff. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.

Pregame Win Probability
Nicholls 37.4%Sam Houston 62.6%

Compare Teams

NichollsVSSam Houston

Model View

Overall Rating—-22.3 · #133
Offense Rating—-11.8
Defense Rating—-10.5

2025 Performance

Offense PPA/Play—0.00
Offense Success Rate—36.3%
Defense PPA/Play Allowed—0.24
Defense Success Rate Allowed—47.9%

2026 Outlook

Market Win Total—3.1
Playoff Odds—<0.01%
Strength of Schedule Rank—115th