Offense#102
-4.6vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play0.19 #53 FBSSuccess rate43.9% #47 FBS
Conference USA · #104 of 138
Jacksonville State
Implied Strength-10.3vs. FBS average · ±3.3
Record1–2through completed games
Bowl Eligibility77%reach six wins
Strength of Schedule136thof 138 FBS teams
Schedule lens
What matters next
The headline numbers are above. Here is where the season starts to take shape.
Next matchupvs. Georgia SouthernWeek 3 · OV Line JXST -2 · 56% win chance →Toughest remaining test#99 Georgia SouthernWeek 3 · 56% site win chance · View matchup →
Team identity
Where the strength lives
Offense projects as the stronger unit by 1.2 rating points.
Defense#107
-5.7vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play allowed0.15 #70 FBSSuccess rate allowed42.0% #79 FBS
2025 PPA (predicted points added per play) and success rate. How this split works →
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Season outlook · 50,000 simulations
How Jacksonville State's 2026 could unfold
The current projection is 7–5 (6.7 expected wins), with a <0.01% chance to reach the playoff. The distribution below shows how often each regular-season win total appeared across the schedule-aware simulations.
Range of outcomes
Projected win distribution
Most common and median 7 winsCentral 80% 5–9 winsBowl eligible 77.3%
Simulated (schedule-aware)Central 80% rangeMarket win total
Postseason path
2026 playoff outlook
<0.01%Make the 12-team field
Still outside the median outcome across the schedule-aware simulations.
How the field is reached<0.01% total
Auto-bid<0.01%
At-large<0.01%
Outside field>99.9%
Conference title17.7%
What could move the outlook
Biggest questions
Unresolved does not mean negative. A point estimate appears only when the historical evidence supports one.
No major preseason uncertainty signals currently clear the display threshold for Jacksonville State. We will update this view as matchup and in-season evidence develops.
Projection contextRoster, continuity, and market inputsView details
The market win total, returning production, coaching continuity, transfer talent, and recent NFL production help explain the evidence surrounding this projection.
Returning Production49.5%share of prior-year PPA returning for 2026
2026 Transfer Class111thof 138 FBS teams by combined portal talent
Recent NFL Draft Production107thof 138 FBS teams by NFL talent produced
Market win total7.3Consensus preseason line
Final · Aug 29Suggested side covered
Spread:NDSU -11vs.NDSU -6.5
Jacksonville State at North Dakota State · Fargo, ND · Fargodome
Final · Sep 5Suggested side did not cover
Eastern Kentucky at Jacksonville State · Jacksonville, AL · AmFirst Stadium
2:30 PM · Nov 14
Jacksonville State at Western Kentucky · Bowling Green, KY · Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium
Pregame evidence · 2022–25
Jacksonville State through the lens
The OV Line is the aggregate-rating baseline. The market gap shows where the game-level consensus differed, while identified Factors show how much of that difference our research may explain. ATS records are descriptive context—not a claim that OV should outperform the market.
Market ATS46%6–7 against consensus
Average line gap2.0 pts77% inside 3 points · 10 of 13
Factor coverage31%4 of 13 games
Factor signals100% aligned4 of 4 individual observations · 0 neutral
Historical sample13 gamesmarket-covered games from 2022–25
Explanatory history
Factors present in Jacksonville State games
| Factor | Games | Average estimate | Aligned with market | Research status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty | 2 | 1.7 pts toward Jacksonville State | 100%2 of 2 directional cases | Supported · wider uncertainty |
| Rest Differential | 2 | 0.1 pts toward Jacksonville State | 100%2 of 2 directional cases | Supported |
Underlying recordInspect all 13 historical gamesView games
| Season | Game | OV baseline | Market | Market gap | Identified adjustment | Remaining gap | Result | Market ATS | Factors |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 · W15 | vs. Kennesaw StateHome | Jacksonville State +1.5 | Jacksonville State +3 | 1.6 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.6 pts toward opponents | L 15–19 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W14 | vs. Western KentuckyHome | Jacksonville State +3 | Jacksonville State +1.5 | 1.5 pts toward Jacksonville State | None identified | 1.5 pts toward Jacksonville State | W 37–34 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W13 | at Florida InternationalAway | Jacksonville State +2.5 | Jacksonville State +2.5 | 0.1 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.1 pts toward opponents | L 21–27 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W12 | vs. Kennesaw StateHome | Jacksonville State +0.5 | Jacksonville State +3.5 | 3.1 pts toward opponents | None identified | 3.1 pts toward opponents | W 35–26 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W11 | at UTEPAway | Jacksonville State +0.5 | Jacksonville State -1.5 | 1.8 pts toward Jacksonville State | None identified | 1.8 pts toward Jacksonville State | W 30–27 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W10 | at Middle TennesseeAway | Jacksonville State -4 | Jacksonville State -4.5 | 0.6 pts toward Jacksonville State | 1.8 pts toward Jacksonville State | 1.2 pts toward opponents | W 24–21 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W8 | vs. DelawareHome | Jacksonville State -3 | Jacksonville State +3 | 5.8 pts toward opponents | 1.5 pts toward opponents | 4.3 pts toward opponents | W 38–25 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W7 | vs. Sam HoustonNeutral | Jacksonville State -7 | Jacksonville State -7 | No net direction | None identified | No net direction | W 29–27 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W5 | at Southern MissAway | Jacksonville State +2.5 | Jacksonville State +4.5 | 1.8 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.8 pts toward opponents | L 25–42 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W4 | vs. Murray StateHome | Jacksonville State -27.5 | Jacksonville State -35.5 | 7.8 pts toward Jacksonville State | 1.6 pts toward Jacksonville State | 6.2 pts toward Jacksonville State | W 45–10 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W3 | at Georgia SouthernAway | Jacksonville State +3 | Jacksonville State +3 | No net direction | None identified | No net direction | L 34–41 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W2 | vs. LibertyHome | Jacksonville State +7.5 | Jacksonville State +6.5 | 1.3 pts toward Jacksonville State | None identified | 1.3 pts toward Jacksonville State | W 34–24 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W1 | at UCFAway | Jacksonville State +21.5 | Jacksonville State +20.5 | 1.1 pts toward Jacksonville State | 1.7 pts toward Jacksonville State | 0.6 pts toward opponents | L 10–17 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
Sample: 13 market-covered games from 2022–25. Identified adjustments are rough sums of the Factors shown and are not a replacement betting line. Remaining gap is market consensus minus the OV baseline and identified adjustments. A push means the team’s scoring margin exactly matched the market line.