Offense#78
-1.0vs. FBS average
Mountain West · #77 of 138
North Dakota State
Implied Strength-2.0vs. FBS average · ±3.4
Record3–0through completed games
Bowl Eligibility>99.9%reach six wins
Strength of Schedule127thof 138 FBS teams
Schedule lens
What matters next
The headline numbers are above. Here is where the season starts to take shape.
Next matchupat Sacramento StateWeek 3 · OV Line NDSU -15 · 88% win chance →Toughest remaining test#75 New MexicoWeek 8 · 41% site win chance · View matchup →
Team identity
Where the strength lives
The model sees a balanced team, with neither unit separating meaningfully from the other.
Defense#73
-1.0vs. FBS average
No 2025 FBS advanced-stats history for this team (reclassified from FCS) — shown as an even split of the overall rating.
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Season outlook · 50,000 simulations
How North Dakota State's 2026 could unfold
The current projection is 10–2 (9.6 expected wins), with a 3% chance to reach the playoff. The distribution below shows how often each regular-season win total appeared across the schedule-aware simulations.
Range of outcomes
Projected win distribution
Most common and median 10 winsCentral 80% 8–11 winsBowl eligible 99.7%Undefeated 6.6%
Simulated (schedule-aware)Central 80% rangeMarket win total
Postseason path
2026 playoff outlook
2.7%Make the 12-team field
Still outside the median outcome across the schedule-aware simulations.
How the field is reached2.7% total
Auto-bid2.4%
At-large0.3%
Outside field97.3%
Conference title35.9%
What could move the outlook
Biggest questions
Unresolved does not mean negative. A point estimate appears only when the historical evidence supports one.
No major preseason uncertainty signals currently clear the display threshold for North Dakota State. We will update this view as matchup and in-season evidence develops.
Projection contextRoster, continuity, and market inputsView details
The market win total, returning production, coaching continuity, transfer talent, and recent NFL production help explain the evidence surrounding this projection.
2026 Transfer Class135thof 138 FBS teams by combined portal talent
Recent NFL Draft Production34thof 138 FBS teams by NFL talent produced
Market win total8.9Consensus preseason line
Final · Aug 29Suggested side covered
Spread:NDSU -11vs.NDSU -6.5
Jacksonville State at North Dakota State · Fargo, ND · Fargodome
6:59 PM · Nov 14
North Dakota State at Hawai'i · Honolulu, HI · Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex
Pregame evidence · 2022–25
North Dakota State through the lens
The OV Line is the aggregate-rating baseline. The market gap shows where the game-level consensus differed, while identified Factors show how much of that difference our research may explain. ATS records are descriptive context—not a claim that OV should outperform the market.
Market ATS50%1–1 against consensus
Average line gap7.4 pts0% inside 3 points · 0 of 2
Factor coverage0%0 of 2 games
Factor signals— aligned0 of 0 individual observations · 0 neutral
Historical sample2 gamesmarket-covered games from 2022–25
Explanatory history
Factors present in North Dakota State games
No qualifying Explanatory Factors were identified in this historical sample.
Underlying recordInspect all 2 historical gamesView games
| Season | Game | OV baseline | Market | Market gap | Identified adjustment | Remaining gap | Result | Market ATS | Factors |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 · W1 | at ColoradoAway | North Dakota State +17.5 | North Dakota State +9.5 | 8.2 pts toward North Dakota State | None identified | 8.2 pts toward North Dakota State | L 26–31 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W3 | at ArizonaAway | North Dakota State +3.5 | North Dakota State -3 | 6.7 pts toward North Dakota State | None identified | 6.7 pts toward North Dakota State | L 28–31 | L | None identified |
Sample: 2 market-covered games from 2022–25. Identified adjustments are rough sums of the Factors shown and are not a replacement betting line. Remaining gap is market consensus minus the OV baseline and identified adjustments. A push means the team’s scoring margin exactly matched the market line.