Offense#123
-8.6vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play0.05 #124 FBSSuccess rate37.9% #118 FBS
Mountain West · #109 of 138
Wyoming
Implied Strength-10.8vs. FBS average · ±4.1
Record1–1through completed games
Bowl Eligibility56%reach six wins
Strength of Schedule112thof 138 FBS teams
Schedule lens
What matters next
The headline numbers are above. Here is where the season starts to take shape.
Next matchupat Central MichiganWeek 3 · OV Line WYO 0 · 49% win chance →Toughest remaining test#75 New MexicoWeek 12 · 30% site win chance · View matchup →
Team identity
Where the strength lives
Defense projects as the stronger unit by 6.4 rating points.
Defense#82
-2.2vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play allowed0.07 #25 FBSSuccess rate allowed37.8% #25 FBS
2025 PPA (predicted points added per play) and success rate. How this split works →
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Season outlook · 50,000 simulations
How Wyoming's 2026 could unfold
The current projection is 6–6 (5.8 expected wins), with a <0.01% chance to reach the playoff. The distribution below shows how often each regular-season win total appeared across the schedule-aware simulations.
Range of outcomes
Projected win distribution
Most common and median 6 winsCentral 80% 3–8 winsBowl eligible 55.8%
Simulated (schedule-aware)Central 80% rangeMarket win total
Postseason path
2026 playoff outlook
<0.01%Make the 12-team field
Still outside the median outcome across the schedule-aware simulations.
How the field is reached<0.01% total
Auto-bid<0.01%
At-large<0.01%
Outside field>99.9%
Conference title3.4%
What could move the outlook
Biggest questions
Unresolved does not mean negative. A point estimate appears only when the historical evidence supports one.
No major preseason uncertainty signals currently clear the display threshold for Wyoming. We will update this view as matchup and in-season evidence develops.
Projection contextRoster, continuity, and market inputsView details
The market win total, returning production, coaching continuity, transfer talent, and recent NFL production help explain the evidence surrounding this projection.
Returning Production23.0%share of prior-year PPA returning for 2026
2026 Transfer Class105thof 138 FBS teams by combined portal talent
Recent NFL Draft Production112thof 138 FBS teams by NFL talent produced
Market win total5.7Consensus preseason line
Pregame evidence · 2022–25
Wyoming through the lens
The OV Line is the aggregate-rating baseline. The market gap shows where the game-level consensus differed, while identified Factors show how much of that difference our research may explain. ATS records are descriptive context—not a claim that OV should outperform the market.
Market ATS42%5–7 against consensus
Average line gap3.3 pts67% inside 3 points · 8 of 12
Factor coverage17%2 of 12 games
Factor signals50% aligned1 of 2 individual observations · 0 neutral
Historical sample12 gamesmarket-covered games from 2022–25
Explanatory history
Factors present in Wyoming games
| Factor | Games | Average estimate | Aligned with market | Research status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty | 2 | 2.6 pts toward Wyoming | 50%1 of 2 directional cases | Supported · wider uncertainty |
Underlying recordInspect all 12 historical gamesView games
| Season | Game | OV baseline | Market | Market gap | Identified adjustment | Remaining gap | Result | Market ATS | Factors |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 · W14 | at Hawai'iAway | Wyoming +7.5 | Wyoming +8.5 | 0.9 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.9 pts toward opponents | L 7–27 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W13 | vs. NevadaHome | Wyoming -11 | Wyoming -6.5 | 4.3 pts toward opponents | None identified | 4.3 pts toward opponents | L 7–13 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W12 | at Fresno StateAway | Wyoming +6 | Wyoming +3 | 2.8 pts toward Wyoming | None identified | 2.8 pts toward Wyoming | L 3–24 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W10 | at San Diego StateAway | Wyoming +9 | Wyoming +10 | 1.0 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.0 pts toward opponents | L 7–24 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W9 | vs. Colorado StateHome | Wyoming -3.5 | Wyoming -5.5 | 2.1 pts toward Wyoming | None identified | 2.1 pts toward Wyoming | W 28–0 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W8 | at Air ForceAway | Wyoming +7 | Wyoming +4 | 2.8 pts toward Wyoming | None identified | 2.8 pts toward Wyoming | L 21–24 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W7 | vs. San José StateHome | Wyoming 0 | Wyoming +1.5 | 1.5 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.5 pts toward opponents | W 35–28 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W6 | vs. UNLVHome | Wyoming +2 | Wyoming +4.5 | 2.4 pts toward opponents | None identified | 2.4 pts toward opponents | L 17–31 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W4 | at ColoradoAway | Wyoming +19 | Wyoming +12.5 | 6.4 pts toward Wyoming | None identified | 6.4 pts toward Wyoming | L 20–37 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W3 | vs. UtahHome | Wyoming +28 | Wyoming +24.5 | 3.6 pts toward Wyoming | 3.6 pts toward Wyoming | 0.1 pts toward opponents | L 6–31 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W2 | vs. Northern IowaHome | Wyoming -24 | Wyoming -14 | 10.3 pts toward opponents | 1.6 pts toward Wyoming | 11.9 pts toward opponents | W 31–7 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W1 | at AkronAway | Wyoming -7 | Wyoming -5 | 2.0 pts toward opponents | None identified | 2.0 pts toward opponents | W 10–0 | W | None identified |
Sample: 12 market-covered games from 2022–25. Identified adjustments are rough sums of the Factors shown and are not a replacement betting line. Remaining gap is market consensus minus the OV baseline and identified adjustments. A push means the team’s scoring margin exactly matched the market line.