Wyoming at North Dakota State

Week 5 · Oct 3Fargodome · Fargo, ND

Matchup View

Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked
Opening LineNorth Dakota State -16.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
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Last Observed Pregame Market ConsensusNorth Dakota State -1710-book consensus · observed Oct 3, 8:27 AM EDT
Why the market may differ1 FactorOnVarsity Opening LineNorth Dakota State -16.5Factor Adjustments~1 pt toward North Dakota StateOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested LineNorth Dakota State -17.5Unexplained Gap~0.5 pts toward WyomingExplore similar gaps OnVarsity Opening LineNorth Dakota State -16.5Factor adjustment (Open)~1 pt toward North Dakota StateOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Open)North Dakota State -17.5Opening Market ConsensusNorth Dakota State -18.5Unexplained at open~1 pt toward North Dakota StateSince openFactor adjustment (In-Week)≈ Net zeroOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Current)North Dakota State -17.5Last Observed Pregame Market ConsensusNorth Dakota State -17Unexplained gap~0.5 pts toward WyomingExplore similar gaps North Dakota State has extra rest~1 pt toward North Dakota State

North Dakota State has extra rest

~1 pt toward North Dakota State

North Dakota State has 6.7 extra days of rest. In comparable games, the market historically shaded about 1.0 points toward North Dakota State; final-margin results did not show a reliable matching improvement.

See the full study
Other conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate

These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.

Letdown after a blowout win Contradictory evidence

North Dakota State enters after winning its previous lined game by at least 21 points.

Studied in 1,819 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Momentum after a blowout win Developing estimate

North Dakota State enters after winning its previous lined game by at least 21 points.

Studied in 1,819 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Straight-up hot streak Developing estimate

North Dakota State has won at least three consecutive lined games.

Studied in 1,465 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Lay it with a big favorite Developing estimate

North Dakota State is favored by 17.5 points in the current market consensus.

Studied in 1,106 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

High-scoring offense tax Developing estimate

North Dakota State ranked in the top quartile of 2025 scoring offense.

Studied in 1,302 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Letdown after an upset win Contradictory evidence

Wyoming was an underdog and won its previous lined game outright.

Studied in 1,127 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Take the big underdog Contradictory evidence

Wyoming is a 17.5-point underdog in the current market consensus.

Studied in 1,106 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Defense travels Contradictory evidence

Wyoming is on the road after ranking in the top quartile of 2025 scoring defense.

Studied in 879 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study
Completed gameWhat happened?Wyoming 0 · North Dakota State 28
Pregame OV Line
North Dakota State -16.5
Last Observed Pregame Market Consensus
North Dakota State -17
OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
North Dakota State -17.5
Actual margin
North Dakota State by 28

Observed 7h 2m before kickoff. Not a verified closing line. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.

Pregame Win Probability
Wyoming 10.0%North Dakota State 90.0%

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Compare Teams

WyomingVSNorth Dakota State

Model View

Overall Rating-12.0 · #110+0.0 · #72
Offense Rating-9.2+0.0
Defense Rating-2.8+0.0

2025 Performance

Offense PPA/Play0.05—
Offense Success Rate37.9%—
Defense PPA/Play Allowed0.07—
Defense Success Rate Allowed37.8%—

2026 Outlook

Market Win Total5.78.9
Playoff Odds<0.01%0.1%
Strength of Schedule Rank113th132nd