Letdown after an upset win Contradictory evidence
Wyoming was an underdog and won its previous lined game outright.
Studied in 1,127 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyNorthern Illinois at Wyoming
Week 7 · Oct 17War Memorial Stadium · Laramie, WY
Matchup View
Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked Opening Line
Wyoming -8Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Wyoming -8Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
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Last Observed Pregame Market ConsensusWyoming -7.510-book consensus · observed Oct 17, 9:02 AM EDT
Wyoming -7.510-book consensus · observed Oct 17, 9:02 AM EDTWhy the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Unexplained Gap~0.5 pts toward Northern IllinoisExplore similar gapsOther conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Close-win regression Developing estimate
Wyoming enters after a one-score win in its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,658 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyLook-ahead game Contradictory evidence
Wyoming faces materially stronger Air Force in its next scheduled game.
Studied in 1,044 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyTrap game Inconclusive
Wyoming is favored by at least seven points before facing materially stronger Air Force.
Studied in 838 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyBounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence
Northern Illinois enters after a loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyBounce-back after a bad loss Contradictory evidence
Northern Illinois enters after losing its previous lined game by 21 points.
Studied in 1,930 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyMust-win after two losses Contradictory evidence
Northern Illinois enters after two consecutive losses in lined games.
Studied in 1,859 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyMust-win after three losses Contradictory evidence
Northern Illinois enters after three consecutive losses in lined games.
Studied in 1,169 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge game Developing estimate
Northern Illinois lost the most recent meeting with Wyoming.
Studied in 3,848 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyCompleted gameWhat happened?Northern Illinois 23 · Wyoming 41
- Pregame OV Line
- Wyoming -8
- Last Observed Pregame Market Consensus
- Wyoming -7.5
- OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
- No quantified Factors
- Actual margin
- Wyoming by 18
Observed 6h 27m before kickoff. Not a verified closing line. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.
Opening LineWyoming -8Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Wyoming -8Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusWyoming -7.5Earliest observed 11-book consensus
Wyoming -7.5Earliest observed 11-book consensusWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Pregame Win Probability
Northern Illinois 26.7%Wyoming 73.3%
Make Your Picks
Open until scheduled kickoffWho will win this game?
Straight-up winner
Who will cover the spread?
Market consensus · Wyoming -7.5
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