Offense#90
-3.1vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play0.12 #94 FBSSuccess rate39.8% #103 FBS
Pac-12 · #90 of 138
Colorado State
Implied Strength-6.4vs. FBS average · ±4.5
Record2–0through completed games
Bowl Eligibility26%reach six wins
Strength of Schedule74thof 138 FBS teams
Schedule lens
What matters next
The headline numbers are above. Here is where the season starts to take shape.
Next matchupvs. BYUWeek 3 · OV Line CSU +18.5 · 8% win chance →Toughest remaining test#20 BYUWeek 3 · 8% site win chance · View matchup →
Team identity
Where the strength lives
New head coach in 2026
The model sees a balanced team, with neither unit separating meaningfully from the other.
Defense#91
-3.3vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play allowed0.24 #119 FBSSuccess rate allowed44.9% #120 FBS
2025 PPA (predicted points added per play) and success rate. How this split works →
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Season outlook · 50,000 simulations
How Colorado State's 2026 could unfold
The current projection is 5–6 (4.6 expected wins), with a 1% chance to reach the playoff. The distribution below shows how often each regular-season win total appeared across the schedule-aware simulations.
Range of outcomes
Projected win distribution
Most common and median 4 winsCentral 80% 3–7 winsBowl eligible 26.5%
Simulated (schedule-aware)Central 80% rangeMarket win total
Postseason path
2026 playoff outlook
0.9%Make the 12-team field
Still outside the median outcome across the schedule-aware simulations.
How the field is reached0.9% total
Auto-bid0.8%
At-large0.1%
Outside field99.1%
Conference title1.9%
What could move the outlook
Biggest questions
Unresolved does not mean negative. A point estimate appears only when the historical evidence supports one.
Hauss Hejny enters with limited established experience
Hauss Hejny enters the season with only 10 career passing attempts. That uncertainty can matter more to an individual spread than to an aggregate season forecast.
17 comparable openers averaged about 0.9 points away from the low-experience quarterback's team. 1 upcoming matchup carries the Factor.How quickly does the new coaching staff take shape?
A first-year staff creates early-season implementation uncertainty even though the team-level baseline already incorporates the available preseason information.
The opener study found about a one-point market shade toward a retained coach, with a wide uncertainty range.Projection contextRoster, continuity, and market inputsView details
The market win total, returning production, coaching continuity, transfer talent, and recent NFL production help explain the evidence surrounding this projection.
Returning Production39.6%share of prior-year PPA returning for 2026
Coaching ContinuityNew HCfirst season under a new head coach
2026 Transfer Class43rdof 138 FBS teams by combined portal talent
Recent NFL Draft Production96thof 138 FBS teams by NFL talent produced
Market win total3.9Consensus preseason line
Pregame evidence · 2022–25
Colorado State through the lens
The OV Line is the aggregate-rating baseline. The market gap shows where the game-level consensus differed, while identified Factors show how much of that difference our research may explain. ATS records are descriptive context—not a claim that OV should outperform the market.
Market ATS33%4–8 against consensus
Average line gap2.2 pts67% inside 3 points · 8 of 12
Factor coverage42%5 of 12 games
Factor signals80% aligned4 of 5 individual observations · 0 neutral
Historical sample12 gamesmarket-covered games from 2022–25
Explanatory history
Factors present in Colorado State games
| Factor | Games | Average estimate | Aligned with market | Research status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rest Differential | 3 | 0.3 pts toward Colorado State | 67%2 of 3 directional cases | Supported |
| Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty | 2 | 2.0 pts toward Colorado State | 100%2 of 2 directional cases | Supported · wider uncertainty |
Underlying recordInspect all 12 historical gamesView games
| Season | Game | OV baseline | Market | Market gap | Identified adjustment | Remaining gap | Result | Market ATS | Factors |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 · W14 | vs. Air ForceHome | Colorado State +1 | Colorado State +2.5 | 1.3 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.3 pts toward opponents | L 21–42 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W13 | at Boise StateAway | Colorado State +21.5 | Colorado State +17.5 | 3.9 pts toward Colorado State | 2.7 pts toward Colorado State | 1.2 pts toward Colorado State | L 21–49 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W12 | at New MexicoAway | Colorado State +11 | Colorado State +15.5 | 4.7 pts toward opponents | 1.1 pts toward opponents | 3.6 pts toward opponents | L 17–20 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W11 | vs. UNLVHome | Colorado State +2 | Colorado State +5.5 | 3.6 pts toward opponents | 1.0 pts toward Colorado State | 4.6 pts toward opponents | L 10–42 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W9 | at WyomingAway | Colorado State +3.5 | Colorado State +5.5 | 2.1 pts toward opponents | None identified | 2.1 pts toward opponents | L 0–28 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W8 | vs. Hawai'iHome | Colorado State -2 | Colorado State -2.5 | 0.3 pts toward Colorado State | None identified | 0.3 pts toward Colorado State | L 19–31 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W7 | vs. Fresno StateHome | Colorado State +6 | Colorado State +5.5 | 0.3 pts toward Colorado State | None identified | 0.3 pts toward Colorado State | W 49–21 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W6 | at San Diego StateAway | Colorado State +6 | Colorado State +4.5 | 1.4 pts toward Colorado State | None identified | 1.4 pts toward Colorado State | L 24–45 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W5 | vs. Washington StateHome | Colorado State -3.5 | Colorado State -4.5 | 0.8 pts toward Colorado State | None identified | 0.8 pts toward Colorado State | L 3–20 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W4 | vs. UTSAHome | Colorado State +6.5 | Colorado State +5 | 1.3 pts toward Colorado State | 1.0 pts toward Colorado State | 0.3 pts toward Colorado State | L 16–17 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W2 | vs. Northern ColoradoHome | Colorado State -32 | Colorado State -35 | 2.6 pts toward Colorado State | 1.3 pts toward Colorado State | 1.4 pts toward Colorado State | W 21–17 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W1 | at WashingtonAway | Colorado State +19 | Colorado State +22.5 | 3.6 pts toward opponents | None identified | 3.6 pts toward opponents | L 21–38 | W | None identified |
Sample: 12 market-covered games from 2022–25. Identified adjustments are rough sums of the Factors shown and are not a replacement betting line. Remaining gap is market consensus minus the OV baseline and identified adjustments. A push means the team’s scoring margin exactly matched the market line.