Offense#87
-2.8vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play0.06 #121 FBSSuccess rate42.4% #68 FBS
Pac-12 · #84 of 138
Oregon State
Implied Strength-4.6vs. FBS average · ±3.7
Record0–2through completed games
Bowl Eligibility27%reach six wins
Strength of Schedule72ndof 138 FBS teams
Schedule lens
What matters next
The headline numbers are above. Here is where the season starts to take shape.
Next matchupvs. MontanaWeek 3 · OV Line ORST -11.5 · 61% win chance →Toughest remaining test#36 Boise StateWeek 11 · 11% site win chance · View matchup →
Team identity
Where the strength lives
New head coach in 2026
The model sees a balanced team, with neither unit separating meaningfully from the other.
Defense#78
-1.8vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play allowed0.18 #88 FBSSuccess rate allowed38.8% #40 FBS
2025 PPA (predicted points added per play) and success rate. How this split works →
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Season outlook · 50,000 simulations
How Oregon State's 2026 could unfold
The current projection is 5–6 (4.6 expected wins), with a <0.01% chance to reach the playoff. The distribution below shows how often each regular-season win total appeared across the schedule-aware simulations.
Range of outcomes
Projected win distribution
Most common and median 5 winsCentral 80% 3–7 winsBowl eligible 26.9%
Simulated (schedule-aware)Central 80% rangeMarket win total
Postseason path
2026 playoff outlook
0.4%Make the 12-team field
Still outside the median outcome across the schedule-aware simulations.
How the field is reached0.4% total
Auto-bid0.3%
At-large<0.01%
Outside field99.6%
Conference title3.0%
What could move the outlook
Biggest questions
Unresolved does not mean negative. A point estimate appears only when the historical evidence supports one.
How quickly does the new coaching staff take shape?
A first-year staff creates early-season implementation uncertainty even though the team-level baseline already incorporates the available preseason information.
The opener study found about a one-point market shade toward a retained coach, with a wide uncertainty range.Projection contextRoster, continuity, and market inputsView details
The market win total, returning production, coaching continuity, transfer talent, and recent NFL production help explain the evidence surrounding this projection.
Returning Production57.9%share of prior-year PPA returning for 2026
Coaching ContinuityNew HCfirst season under a new head coach
2026 Transfer Class63rdof 138 FBS teams by combined portal talent
Recent NFL Draft Production92ndof 138 FBS teams by NFL talent produced
Market win total4.1Consensus preseason line
Pregame evidence · 2022–25
Oregon State through the lens
The OV Line is the aggregate-rating baseline. The market gap shows where the game-level consensus differed, while identified Factors show how much of that difference our research may explain. ATS records are descriptive context—not a claim that OV should outperform the market.
Market ATS53%20–18–1 against consensus
Average line gap3.6 pts46% inside 3 points · 18 of 39
Factor coverage31%12 of 39 games
Factor signals50% aligned6 of 12 individual observations · 0 neutral
Historical sample39 gamesmarket-covered games from 2022–25
Explanatory history
Factors present in Oregon State games
| Factor | Games | Average estimate | Aligned with market | Research status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty | 7 | 1.3 pts toward Oregon State | 57%4 of 7 directional cases | Supported · wider uncertainty |
| Rest Differential | 3 | 0.3 pts toward Oregon State | 33%1 of 3 directional cases | Supported |
| Season-Opening Quarterback Experience | 2 | 0.9 pts toward Oregon State | 50%1 of 2 directional cases | Research candidate |
Underlying recordInspect all 39 historical gamesView games
| Season | Game | OV baseline | Market | Market gap | Identified adjustment | Remaining gap | Result | Market ATS | Factors |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 · W14 | at Washington StateAway | Oregon State +10.5 | Oregon State +14 | 3.4 pts toward opponents | 1.7 pts toward Oregon State | 5.1 pts toward opponents | L 8–32 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W12 | at TulsaAway | Oregon State -5 | Oregon State +1.5 | 6.6 pts toward opponents | None identified | 6.6 pts toward opponents | L 14–31 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W11 | vs. Sam HoustonHome | Oregon State -17 | Oregon State -21 | 3.9 pts toward Oregon State | None identified | 3.9 pts toward Oregon State | L 17–21 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W10 | vs. Washington StateHome | Oregon State -1 | Oregon State +3.5 | 4.3 pts toward opponents | 1.0 pts toward Oregon State | 5.4 pts toward opponents | W 10–7 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W8 | vs. LafayetteHome | Oregon State -28.5 | Oregon State -21 | 7.3 pts toward opponents | 1.6 pts toward Oregon State | 8.9 pts toward opponents | W 45–13 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W7 | vs. Wake ForestHome | Oregon State +2 | Oregon State +1.5 | 0.6 pts toward Oregon State | None identified | 0.6 pts toward Oregon State | L 14–39 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W6 | at App StateAway | Oregon State -0.5 | Oregon State +2 | 2.6 pts toward opponents | None identified | 2.6 pts toward opponents | L 23–27 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W5 | vs. HoustonHome | Oregon State +10 | Oregon State +11.5 | 1.5 pts toward opponents | 1.9 pts toward opponents | 0.5 pts toward Oregon State | L 24–27 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W4 | at OregonAway | Oregon State +41 | Oregon State +34 | 6.9 pts toward Oregon State | 6.2 pts toward Oregon State | 0.7 pts toward Oregon State | L 7–41 | P | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W3 | at Texas TechAway | Oregon State +29.5 | Oregon State +24 | 5.5 pts toward Oregon State | 3.9 pts toward Oregon State | 1.6 pts toward Oregon State | L 14–45 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W2 | vs. Fresno StateHome | Oregon State +2 | Oregon State -1.5 | 3.3 pts toward Oregon State | None identified | 3.3 pts toward Oregon State | L 27–36 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W1 | vs. CaliforniaHome | Oregon State -3 | Oregon State +2.5 | 5.6 pts toward opponents | 0.9 pts toward Oregon State | 6.5 pts toward opponents | L 15–34 | L | Season-Opening Quarterback Experience |
| 2024 · W13 | vs. Washington StateHome | Oregon State +11.5 | Oregon State +11 | 0.7 pts toward Oregon State | None identified | 0.7 pts toward Oregon State | W 41–38 | W | None identified |
| 2024 · W9 | at CaliforniaAway | Oregon State +12.5 | Oregon State +13 | 0.3 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.3 pts toward opponents | L 7–44 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W4 | vs. PurdueHome | Oregon State -5.5 | Oregon State -1.5 | 3.8 pts toward opponents | None identified | 3.8 pts toward opponents | W 38–21 | W | None identified |
| 2024 · W3 | vs. OregonHome | Oregon State +5 | Oregon State +18 | 13.2 pts toward opponents | None identified | 13.2 pts toward opponents | L 14–49 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W1 | vs. Idaho StateHome | Oregon State -33.5 | Oregon State -29.5 | 3.9 pts toward opponents | 1.8 pts toward Oregon State | 5.7 pts toward opponents | W 38–15 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2023 · W13 | at OregonAway | Oregon State +12.5 | Oregon State +14 | 1.3 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.3 pts toward opponents | L 7–31 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W12 | vs. WashingtonHome | Oregon State +5.5 | Oregon State -1 | 6.3 pts toward Oregon State | None identified | 6.3 pts toward Oregon State | L 20–22 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W11 | vs. StanfordHome | Oregon State -24.5 | Oregon State -21.5 | 3.0 pts toward opponents | 2.5 pts toward opponents | 0.5 pts toward opponents | W 62–17 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2023 · W10 | at ColoradoAway | Oregon State -12 | Oregon State -13.5 | 1.4 pts toward Oregon State | None identified | 1.4 pts toward Oregon State | W 26–19 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W9 | at ArizonaAway | Oregon State -9 | Oregon State -3 | 6.0 pts toward opponents | None identified | 6.0 pts toward opponents | L 24–27 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W7 | vs. UCLAHome | Oregon State -4.5 | Oregon State -3.5 | 0.8 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.8 pts toward opponents | W 36–24 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W6 | at CaliforniaAway | Oregon State -11.5 | Oregon State -7.5 | 4.2 pts toward opponents | None identified | 4.2 pts toward opponents | W 52–40 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W5 | vs. UtahHome | Oregon State -5 | Oregon State -3.5 | 1.7 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.7 pts toward opponents | W 21–7 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W4 | at Washington StateAway | Oregon State -9 | Oregon State -3 | 6.2 pts toward opponents | None identified | 6.2 pts toward opponents | L 35–38 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W2 | vs. UC DavisHome | Oregon State -32 | Oregon State -23.5 | 8.7 pts toward opponents | 1.0 pts toward Oregon State | 9.7 pts toward opponents | W 55–7 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2022 · W13 | vs. OregonHome | Oregon State +5.5 | Oregon State -1 | 6.4 pts toward Oregon State | None identified | 6.4 pts toward Oregon State | W 38–34 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W12 | at Arizona StateAway | Oregon State -10 | Oregon State -7.5 | 2.5 pts toward opponents | None identified | 2.5 pts toward opponents | W 31–7 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W11 | vs. CaliforniaHome | Oregon State -11.5 | Oregon State -11.5 | 0.2 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.2 pts toward opponents | W 38–10 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W10 | at WashingtonAway | Oregon State +4 | Oregon State +4.5 | 0.5 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.5 pts toward opponents | L 21–24 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W8 | vs. ColoradoHome | Oregon State -23 | Oregon State -23 | 0.1 pts toward opponents | 2.6 pts toward opponents | 2.6 pts toward Oregon State | W 42–9 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2022 · W7 | vs. Washington StateHome | Oregon State -3.5 | Oregon State -3 | 0.3 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.3 pts toward opponents | W 24–10 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W6 | at StanfordAway | Oregon State -7.5 | Oregon State -4.5 | 2.9 pts toward opponents | None identified | 2.9 pts toward opponents | W 28–27 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W5 | at UtahAway | Oregon State +13.5 | Oregon State +10.5 | 3.0 pts toward Oregon State | None identified | 3.0 pts toward Oregon State | L 16–42 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W4 | vs. USCHome | Oregon State +6.5 | Oregon State +5.5 | 1.0 pts toward Oregon State | None identified | 1.0 pts toward Oregon State | L 14–17 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W3 | vs. Montana StateNeutral | Oregon State -17.5 | Oregon State -17 | 0.3 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.3 pts toward opponents | W 68–28 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W2 | at Fresno StateAway | Oregon State -3 | Oregon State +1 | 4.1 pts toward opponents | None identified | 4.1 pts toward opponents | W 35–32 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W1 | vs. Boise StateHome | Oregon State +3.5 | Oregon State -1.5 | 4.9 pts toward Oregon State | 0.9 pts toward Oregon State | 4.1 pts toward Oregon State | W 34–17 | W | Season-Opening Quarterback Experience |
Sample: 39 market-covered games from 2022–25. Identified adjustments are rough sums of the Factors shown and are not a replacement betting line. Remaining gap is market consensus minus the OV baseline and identified adjustments. A push means the team’s scoring margin exactly matched the market line.