Offense#69
+0.2vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play0.20 #42 FBSSuccess rate41.1% #84 FBS
Pac-12 · #80 of 138
Utah State
Implied Strength-3.2vs. FBS average · ±3.7
Record0–2through completed games
Bowl Eligibility13%reach six wins
Strength of Schedule70thof 138 FBS teams
Schedule lens
What matters next
The headline numbers are above. Here is where the season starts to take shape.
Next matchupat UtahWeek 3 · OV Line USU +20 · 6% win chance →Toughest remaining test#21 UtahWeek 3 · 6% site win chance · View matchup →
Team identity
Where the strength lives
Offense projects as the stronger unit by 3.6 rating points.
Defense#92
-3.4vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play allowed0.20 #101 FBSSuccess rate allowed42.7% #90 FBS
2025 PPA (predicted points added per play) and success rate. How this split works →
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Season outlook · 50,000 simulations
How Utah State's 2026 could unfold
The current projection is 4–7 (3.7 expected wins), with a <0.01% chance to reach the playoff. The distribution below shows how often each regular-season win total appeared across the schedule-aware simulations.
Range of outcomes
Projected win distribution
Most common and median 4 winsCentral 80% 2–6 winsBowl eligible 13.1%Winless 1.1%
Simulated (schedule-aware)Central 80% rangeMarket win total
Postseason path
2026 playoff outlook
0.1%Make the 12-team field
Still outside the median outcome across the schedule-aware simulations.
How the field is reached0.1% total
Auto-bid0.1%
At-large<0.01%
Outside field99.9%
Conference title4.2%
What could move the outlook
Biggest questions
Unresolved does not mean negative. A point estimate appears only when the historical evidence supports one.
No major preseason uncertainty signals currently clear the display threshold for Utah State. We will update this view as matchup and in-season evidence develops.
Projection contextRoster, continuity, and market inputsView details
The market win total, returning production, coaching continuity, transfer talent, and recent NFL production help explain the evidence surrounding this projection.
Returning Production65.2%share of prior-year PPA returning for 2026
2026 Transfer Class32ndof 138 FBS teams by combined portal talent
Recent NFL Draft Production89thof 138 FBS teams by NFL talent produced
Market win total4.9Consensus preseason line
Pregame evidence · 2022–25
Utah State through the lens
The OV Line is the aggregate-rating baseline. The market gap shows where the game-level consensus differed, while identified Factors show how much of that difference our research may explain. ATS records are descriptive context—not a claim that OV should outperform the market.
Market ATS83%10–2 against consensus
Average line gap2.2 pts67% inside 3 points · 8 of 12
Factor coverage33%4 of 12 games
Factor signals0% aligned0 of 4 individual observations · 1 neutral
Historical sample12 gamesmarket-covered games from 2022–25
Explanatory history
Factors present in Utah State games
| Factor | Games | Average estimate | Aligned with market | Research status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty | 2 | 3.8 pts toward Utah State | 0%0 of 2 directional cases | Supported · wider uncertainty |
| Rest Differential | 1 | 1.7 pts toward opponents | 0%0 of 1 directional cases | Supported |
| Season Opener with a New Head Coach | 1 | No net direction | —0 of 0 directional cases | No separate adjustment |
| Season-Opening Quarterback Experience | 1 | 0.9 pts toward Utah State | 0%0 of 1 directional cases | Research candidate |
Underlying recordInspect all 12 historical gamesView games
| Season | Game | OV baseline | Market | Market gap | Identified adjustment | Remaining gap | Result | Market ATS | Factors |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 · W14 | vs. Boise StateHome | Utah State +5 | Utah State +1.5 | 3.5 pts toward Utah State | None identified | 3.5 pts toward Utah State | L 24–25 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W13 | at Fresno StateAway | Utah State +3.5 | Utah State +1.5 | 1.9 pts toward Utah State | None identified | 1.9 pts toward Utah State | W 28–17 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W12 | at UNLVAway | Utah State +6 | Utah State +4.5 | 1.6 pts toward Utah State | None identified | 1.6 pts toward Utah State | L 26–29 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W11 | vs. NevadaHome | Utah State -14 | Utah State -10 | 4.0 pts toward opponents | None identified | 4.0 pts toward opponents | W 51–14 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W9 | at New MexicoAway | Utah State +3 | Utah State +3 | No net direction | None identified | No net direction | L 14–33 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W8 | vs. San José StateHome | Utah State -3.5 | Utah State -3 | 0.6 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.6 pts toward opponents | W 30–25 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W7 | at Hawai'iAway | Utah State +1.5 | Utah State -1.5 | 2.9 pts toward Utah State | None identified | 2.9 pts toward Utah State | L 26–44 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W5 | at VanderbiltAway | Utah State +22 | Utah State +23.5 | 1.5 pts toward opponents | 2.8 pts toward Utah State | 4.3 pts toward opponents | L 35–55 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W4 | vs. McNeeseHome | Utah State -18 | Utah State -23.5 | 5.7 pts toward Utah State | None identified | 5.7 pts toward Utah State | W 48–7 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W3 | vs. Air ForceHome | Utah State +8 | Utah State +4 | 4.0 pts toward Utah State | 1.7 pts toward opponents | 5.7 pts toward Utah State | W 49–30 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W2 | at Texas A&MAway | Utah State +34.5 | Utah State +34.5 | 0.1 pts toward opponents | 4.9 pts toward Utah State | 5.0 pts toward opponents | L 22–44 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W1 | vs. UTEPHome | Utah State -5.5 | Utah State -4.5 | 1.1 pts toward opponents | 0.9 pts toward Utah State | 1.9 pts toward opponents | W 28–16 | W | Season-Opening Quarterback ExperienceSeason Opener with a New Head Coach |
Sample: 12 market-covered games from 2022–25. Identified adjustments are rough sums of the Factors shown and are not a replacement betting line. Remaining gap is market consensus minus the OV baseline and identified adjustments. A push means the team’s scoring margin exactly matched the market line.