Offense#12
+9.7vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play0.29 #19 FBSSuccess rate48.9% #10 FBS
Big Ten · #14 of 138
Washington
Implied Strength+18.3vs. FBS average · ±3.4
Record2–0through completed games
Playoff Odds20%make the 12-team field
Conference Title3%win Big Ten
Strength of Schedule18thof 138 FBS teams
Schedule lens
What matters next
The headline numbers are above. Here is where the season starts to take shape.
Next matchupvs. Eastern WashingtonWeek 3 · OV Line WASH -43 · >99.9% win chance →Toughest remaining test#2 IndianaWeek 12 · 28% site win chance · View matchup →
Team identity
Where the strength lives
Offense projects as the stronger unit by 1.0 rating points.
Defense#13
+8.6vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play allowed0.06 #19 FBSSuccess rate allowed38.0% #29 FBS
2025 PPA (predicted points added per play) and success rate. How this split works →
Build Your Ratings
Who would win on a neutral field?
Pick the team you think is better. Your answers help build your personal ratings.
VS
Looks like you’re high on this year.
Want to explore new teams or keep comparing ?
Stored only in this browser -- nothing is sent anywhere.
Season outlook · 50,000 simulations
How Washington's 2026 could unfold
The current projection is 9–3 (8.5 expected wins), with a 20% chance to reach the playoff. The distribution below shows how often each regular-season win total appeared across the schedule-aware simulations.
Range of outcomes
Projected win distribution
Most common and median 9 winsCentral 80% 7–10 winsBowl eligible 98.2%Undefeated 0.9%
Simulated (schedule-aware)Central 80% rangeMarket win total
Postseason path
2026 playoff outlook
19.6%Make the 12-team field
Still outside the median outcome across the schedule-aware simulations.
How the field is reached19.6% total
Auto-bid2.6%
At-large17.0%
Outside field80.4%
Conference title2.6%
What could move the outlook
Biggest questions
Unresolved does not mean negative. A point estimate appears only when the historical evidence supports one.
Replacing a high level of NFL-caliber production
Washington ranks 21st of 138 teams in recent NFL draft production. The open question is how quickly the next group reproduces it.
Draft attrition is already included in the baseline. Broad roster reconstruction did not earn a separate historical point adjustment.Projection contextRoster, continuity, and market inputsView details
The market win total, returning production, coaching continuity, transfer talent, and recent NFL production help explain the evidence surrounding this projection.
Returning Production54.4%share of prior-year PPA returning for 2026
2026 Transfer Class100thof 138 FBS teams by combined portal talent
Recent NFL Draft Production21stof 138 FBS teams by NFL talent producedHeavy draft production
Market win total8.0Consensus preseason line
Pregame evidence · 2022–25
Washington through the lens
The OV Line is the aggregate-rating baseline. The market gap shows where the game-level consensus differed, while identified Factors show how much of that difference our research may explain. ATS records are descriptive context—not a claim that OV should outperform the market.
Market ATS50%22–22–1 against consensus
Average line gap2.6 pts67% inside 3 points · 30 of 45
Factor coverage29%13 of 45 games
Factor signals73% aligned11 of 15 individual observations · 0 neutral
Historical sample45 gamesmarket-covered games from 2022–25
Explanatory history
Factors present in Washington games
| Factor | Games | Average estimate | Aligned with market | Research status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rest Differential | 8 | 0.8 pts toward opponents | 88%7 of 8 directional cases | Supported |
| Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty | 7 | 1.3 pts toward opponents | 57%4 of 7 directional cases | Supported · wider uncertainty |
Underlying recordInspect all 45 historical gamesView games
| Season | Game | OV baseline | Market | Market gap | Identified adjustment | Remaining gap | Result | Market ATS | Factors |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 · W14 | vs. OregonHome | Washington +9 | Washington +6.5 | 2.6 pts toward Washington | None identified | 2.6 pts toward Washington | L 14–26 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W13 | at UCLAAway | Washington -12 | Washington -10.5 | 1.4 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.4 pts toward opponents | W 48–14 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W12 | vs. PurdueHome | Washington -18.5 | Washington -14.5 | 3.9 pts toward opponents | None identified | 3.9 pts toward opponents | W 49–13 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W11 | at WisconsinAway | Washington -10.5 | Washington -10.5 | No net direction | None identified | No net direction | L 10–13 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W9 | vs. IllinoisHome | Washington -4 | Washington -3.5 | 0.5 pts toward opponents | 1.7 pts toward opponents | 1.2 pts toward Washington | W 42–25 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W8 | at MichiganAway | Washington +7 | Washington +4 | 3.1 pts toward Washington | None identified | 3.1 pts toward Washington | L 7–24 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W7 | vs. RutgersHome | Washington -11 | Washington -9.5 | 1.4 pts toward opponents | 1.8 pts toward opponents | 0.4 pts toward Washington | W 38–19 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W6 | at MarylandAway | Washington -11.5 | Washington -5.5 | 5.9 pts toward opponents | 1.1 pts toward opponents | 4.8 pts toward opponents | W 24–20 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W5 | vs. Ohio StateHome | Washington +4.5 | Washington +9.5 | 5.0 pts toward opponents | 1.8 pts toward opponents | 3.2 pts toward opponents | L 6–24 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W4 | at Washington StateAway | Washington -22.5 | Washington -21 | 1.7 pts toward opponents | 1.2 pts toward opponents | 0.5 pts toward opponents | W 59–24 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow UncertaintyRest Differential |
| 2025 · W2 | vs. UC DavisHome | Washington -27.5 | Washington -29 | 1.4 pts toward Washington | 1.6 pts toward Washington | 0.3 pts toward opponents | W 70–10 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W1 | vs. Colorado StateHome | Washington -19 | Washington -22.5 | 3.6 pts toward Washington | None identified | 3.6 pts toward Washington | W 38–21 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W14 | at OregonAway | Washington +19.5 | Washington +17.5 | 1.9 pts toward Washington | None identified | 1.9 pts toward Washington | L 21–49 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W12 | vs. UCLAHome | Washington -9 | Washington -5 | 4.2 pts toward opponents | None identified | 4.2 pts toward opponents | W 31–19 | W | None identified |
| 2024 · W11 | at Penn StateAway | Washington +16 | Washington +13.5 | 2.5 pts toward Washington | None identified | 2.5 pts toward Washington | L 6–35 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W10 | vs. USCHome | Washington +4.5 | Washington +2 | 2.7 pts toward Washington | None identified | 2.7 pts toward Washington | W 26–21 | W | None identified |
| 2024 · W9 | at IndianaAway | Washington +10.5 | Washington +5.5 | 4.8 pts toward Washington | 1.8 pts toward Washington | 3.1 pts toward Washington | L 17–31 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2024 · W7 | at IowaAway | Washington +9 | Washington +2.5 | 6.3 pts toward Washington | None identified | 6.3 pts toward Washington | L 16–40 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W6 | vs. MichiganHome | Washington +3 | Washington -1.5 | 4.7 pts toward Washington | None identified | 4.7 pts toward Washington | W 27–17 | W | None identified |
| 2024 · W5 | at RutgersAway | Washington +0.5 | Washington +1.5 | 0.5 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.5 pts toward opponents | L 18–21 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W4 | vs. NorthwesternHome | Washington -12.5 | Washington -12 | 0.6 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.6 pts toward opponents | W 24–5 | W | None identified |
| 2024 · W3 | vs. Washington StateNeutral | Washington -2.5 | Washington -5.5 | 2.8 pts toward Washington | None identified | 2.8 pts toward Washington | L 19–24 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W1 | vs. Weber StateHome | Washington -29 | Washington -29 | 0.2 pts toward opponents | 2.3 pts toward Washington | 2.5 pts toward opponents | W 35–3 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2023 · W14 | vs. OregonNeutral | Washington +6.5 | Washington +9.5 | 2.8 pts toward opponents | None identified | 2.8 pts toward opponents | W 34–31 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W13 | vs. Washington StateHome | Washington -18.5 | Washington -15.5 | 3.2 pts toward opponents | None identified | 3.2 pts toward opponents | W 24–21 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W12 | at Oregon StateAway | Washington -5.5 | Washington +1 | 6.3 pts toward opponents | None identified | 6.3 pts toward opponents | W 22–20 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W11 | vs. UtahHome | Washington -12 | Washington -9.5 | 2.5 pts toward opponents | None identified | 2.5 pts toward opponents | W 35–28 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W10 | at USCAway | Washington -0.5 | Washington -3 | 2.4 pts toward Washington | None identified | 2.4 pts toward Washington | W 52–42 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W9 | at StanfordAway | Washington -30 | Washington -27.5 | 2.7 pts toward opponents | 3.1 pts toward opponents | 0.4 pts toward Washington | W 42–33 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2023 · W8 | vs. Arizona StateHome | Washington -34.5 | Washington -28 | 6.7 pts toward opponents | 5.4 pts toward opponents | 1.2 pts toward opponents | W 15–7 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow UncertaintyRest Differential |
| 2023 · W7 | vs. OregonHome | Washington -2.5 | Washington -3 | 0.5 pts toward Washington | None identified | 0.5 pts toward Washington | W 36–33 | P | None identified |
| 2023 · W5 | at ArizonaAway | Washington -19.5 | Washington -20 | 0.7 pts toward Washington | None identified | 0.7 pts toward Washington | W 31–24 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W4 | vs. CaliforniaHome | Washington -18 | Washington -20.5 | 2.6 pts toward Washington | None identified | 2.6 pts toward Washington | W 59–32 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W3 | at Michigan StateAway | Washington -14.5 | Washington -15 | 0.6 pts toward Washington | None identified | 0.6 pts toward Washington | W 41–7 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W13 | at Washington StateAway | Washington -3 | Washington -2.5 | 0.3 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.3 pts toward opponents | W 51–33 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W12 | vs. ColoradoHome | Washington -29 | Washington -30.5 | 1.6 pts toward Washington | 3.3 pts toward opponents | 4.9 pts toward Washington | W 54–7 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2022 · W11 | at OregonAway | Washington +9.5 | Washington +12 | 2.5 pts toward opponents | None identified | 2.5 pts toward opponents | W 37–34 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W10 | vs. Oregon StateHome | Washington -4 | Washington -4.5 | 0.5 pts toward Washington | None identified | 0.5 pts toward Washington | W 24–21 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W8 | at CaliforniaAway | Washington -9 | Washington -7.5 | 1.6 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.6 pts toward opponents | W 28–21 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W7 | vs. ArizonaHome | Washington -15.5 | Washington -14.5 | 0.8 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.8 pts toward opponents | W 49–39 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W6 | at Arizona StateAway | Washington -12.5 | Washington -13.5 | 1.0 pts toward Washington | None identified | 1.0 pts toward Washington | L 38–45 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W5 | at UCLAAway | Washington -1.5 | Washington -2.5 | 1.1 pts toward Washington | None identified | 1.1 pts toward Washington | L 32–40 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W4 | vs. StanfordHome | Washington -18 | Washington -14 | 4.0 pts toward opponents | 1.7 pts toward opponents | 2.3 pts toward opponents | W 40–22 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2022 · W3 | vs. Michigan StateHome | Washington +4 | Washington -3.5 | 7.4 pts toward Washington | None identified | 7.4 pts toward Washington | W 39–28 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W2 | vs. Portland StateHome | Washington -35.5 | Washington -31 | 4.7 pts toward opponents | 0.1 pts toward Washington | 4.8 pts toward opponents | W 52–6 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
Sample: 45 market-covered games from 2022–25. Identified adjustments are rough sums of the Factors shown and are not a replacement betting line. Remaining gap is market consensus minus the OV baseline and identified adjustments. A push means the team’s scoring margin exactly matched the market line.