Lay it with a big favorite Developing estimate
Washington is favored by 23.5 points in the current market consensus.
Studied in 450 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyWashington State at Washington
Week 1 · Sep 6Husky Stadium · Seattle, WA
Matchup View
Pregame view lockedThis preserves what the matchup looked like before kickoff.
Locked Opening Line
Washington -18Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Washington -18Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
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Current Market ConsensusWashington -23.52-book consensus · updated Aug 26
Washington -23.52-book consensus · updated Aug 26Why the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Unexplained Gap~5.5 pts toward WashingtonExplore similar gapsOther conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Public bias toward greatness Developing estimate
Washington begins the season in the top quartile of OV Ratings.
Studied in 896 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyHigh-scoring offense tax Developing estimate
Washington ranked in the top quartile of 2025 scoring offense.
Studied in 891 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyTake the big underdog Contradictory evidence
Washington State is a 23.5-point underdog in the current market consensus.
Studied in 450 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyDefense travels Contradictory evidence
Washington State is on the road after ranking in the top quartile of 2025 scoring defense.
Studied in 445 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge game Developing estimate
Washington State lost the most recent meeting with Washington.
Studied in 1,265 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge after humiliation Developing estimate
Washington State lost the most recent meeting with Washington by at least 14 points.
Studied in 592 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRivalry games favor the underdog Developing estimate
Washington State is the underdog in a matchup played at least 8 times in the available prior-decade archive.
Studied in 901 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studySeason Opener with a New Head Coach No separate adjustment
Kirby Moore begins his first Washington State season; Washington returns Jedd Fisch. Across 38 comparable games, markets averaged 0.86 points toward the returning coach at the final recorded line in the full sample. However, the 24 games with provider-level opening data centered near zero at opening, at the final recorded line, and in later movement. We identify the condition for transparency but apply no Factor points.
Studied in 38 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyCompleted gameWhat happened?Washington State 10 · Washington 24
- Pregame OV Line
- Washington -18
- Final recorded market
- Washington -23.5
- OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
- No quantified Factors
- Actual margin
- Washington by 14
This preserves the pregame comparison beside the result. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.
Opening LineWashington -18Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Washington -18Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusWashington -21.5Based on 2 books
Washington -21.5Based on 2 booksWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Pregame Win Probability
Washington State 9.9%Washington 90.1%
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Market consensus · Washington -23.5
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