Offense#74
-0.4vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play0.13 #92 FBSSuccess rate41.6% #78 FBS
Pac-12 · #72 of 138
Washington State
Implied Strength-1.3vs. FBS average · ±3.7
Record0–2through completed games
Bowl Eligibility28%reach six wins
Strength of Schedule64thof 138 FBS teams
Schedule lens
What matters next
The headline numbers are above. Here is where the season starts to take shape.
Next matchupvs. DuquesneWeek 3 · OV Line WSU -31 · 99% win chance →Toughest remaining test#32 ArizonaWeek 4 · 26% site win chance · View matchup →
Team identity
Where the strength lives
New head coach in 2026
The model sees a balanced team, with neither unit separating meaningfully from the other.
Defense#72
-1.0vs. FBS average
2025 PPA/play allowed0.09 #36 FBSSuccess rate allowed41.9% #76 FBS
2025 PPA (predicted points added per play) and success rate. How this split works →
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Season outlook · 50,000 simulations
How Washington State's 2026 could unfold
The current projection is 5–6 (4.6 expected wins), with a <0.01% chance to reach the playoff. The distribution below shows how often each regular-season win total appeared across the schedule-aware simulations.
Range of outcomes
Projected win distribution
Most common and median 5 winsCentral 80% 3–7 winsBowl eligible 27.9%
Simulated (schedule-aware)Central 80% rangeMarket win total
Postseason path
2026 playoff outlook
0.5%Make the 12-team field
Still outside the median outcome across the schedule-aware simulations.
How the field is reached0.5% total
Auto-bid0.4%
At-large<0.01%
Outside field99.5%
Conference title6.8%
What could move the outlook
Biggest questions
Unresolved does not mean negative. A point estimate appears only when the historical evidence supports one.
How quickly does the new coaching staff take shape?
A first-year staff creates early-season implementation uncertainty even though the team-level baseline already incorporates the available preseason information.
The opener study found about a one-point market shade toward a retained coach, with a wide uncertainty range.Projection contextRoster, continuity, and market inputsView details
The market win total, returning production, coaching continuity, transfer talent, and recent NFL production help explain the evidence surrounding this projection.
Returning Production91.3%share of prior-year PPA returning for 2026
Coaching ContinuityNew HCfirst season under a new head coach
2026 Transfer Class40thof 138 FBS teams by combined portal talent
Recent NFL Draft Production84thof 138 FBS teams by NFL talent produced
Market win total5.2Consensus preseason line
Pregame evidence · 2022–25
Washington State through the lens
The OV Line is the aggregate-rating baseline. The market gap shows where the game-level consensus differed, while identified Factors show how much of that difference our research may explain. ATS records are descriptive context—not a claim that OV should outperform the market.
Market ATS61%23–15 against consensus
Average line gap3.8 pts55% inside 3 points · 21 of 38
Factor coverage32%12 of 38 games
Factor signals47% aligned7 of 15 individual observations · 0 neutral
Historical sample38 gamesmarket-covered games from 2022–25
Explanatory history
Factors present in Washington State games
| Factor | Games | Average estimate | Aligned with market | Research status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty | 7 | 1.6 pts toward Washington State | 57%4 of 7 directional cases | Supported · wider uncertainty |
| Rest Differential | 5 | 0.9 pts toward opponents | 20%1 of 5 directional cases | Supported |
| Season-Opening Quarterback Experience | 3 | 0.8 pts toward Washington State | 67%2 of 3 directional cases | Research candidate |
Underlying recordInspect all 38 historical gamesView games
| Season | Game | OV baseline | Market | Market gap | Identified adjustment | Remaining gap | Result | Market ATS | Factors |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 · W14 | vs. Oregon StateHome | Washington State -10.5 | Washington State -14 | 3.4 pts toward Washington State | 1.7 pts toward opponents | 5.1 pts toward Washington State | W 32–8 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W13 | at James MadisonAway | Washington State +15 | Washington State +15.5 | 0.6 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.6 pts toward opponents | L 20–24 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W12 | vs. Louisiana TechHome | Washington State -4.5 | Washington State -10 | 5.4 pts toward Washington State | 1.0 pts toward Washington State | 4.4 pts toward Washington State | W 28–3 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W10 | at Oregon StateAway | Washington State +1 | Washington State -3.5 | 4.3 pts toward Washington State | 1.0 pts toward opponents | 5.4 pts toward Washington State | L 7–10 | L | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W9 | vs. ToledoHome | Washington State +5 | Washington State +1.5 | 3.6 pts toward Washington State | None identified | 3.6 pts toward Washington State | W 28–7 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W8 | at VirginiaAway | Washington State +20.5 | Washington State +16.5 | 3.8 pts toward Washington State | 1.0 pts toward opponents | 4.9 pts toward Washington State | L 20–22 | W | Rest Differential |
| 2025 · W7 | at Ole MissAway | Washington State +32.5 | Washington State +33 | 0.4 pts toward opponents | 4.5 pts toward Washington State | 4.9 pts toward opponents | L 21–24 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2025 · W5 | at Colorado StateAway | Washington State +3.5 | Washington State +4.5 | 0.8 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.8 pts toward opponents | W 20–3 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W4 | vs. WashingtonHome | Washington State +22.5 | Washington State +21 | 1.7 pts toward Washington State | 1.2 pts toward Washington State | 0.5 pts toward Washington State | L 24–59 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow UncertaintyRest Differential |
| 2025 · W3 | at North TexasAway | Washington State +11.5 | Washington State +6.5 | 5.1 pts toward Washington State | None identified | 5.1 pts toward Washington State | L 10–59 | L | None identified |
| 2025 · W2 | vs. San Diego StateHome | Washington State +13 | Washington State -2.5 | 15.1 pts toward Washington State | None identified | 15.1 pts toward Washington State | W 36–13 | W | None identified |
| 2025 · W1 | vs. IdahoHome | Washington State -11 | Washington State -17 | 5.8 pts toward Washington State | 0.8 pts toward Washington State | 5.1 pts toward Washington State | W 13–10 | L | Season-Opening Quarterback Experience |
| 2024 · W13 | at Oregon StateAway | Washington State -11.5 | Washington State -11 | 0.7 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.7 pts toward opponents | L 38–41 | L | None identified |
| 2024 · W3 | vs. WashingtonNeutral | Washington State +2.5 | Washington State +5.5 | 2.8 pts toward opponents | None identified | 2.8 pts toward opponents | W 24–19 | W | None identified |
| 2024 · W2 | vs. Texas TechHome | Washington State -23 | Washington State +2.5 | 25.5 pts toward opponents | 2.3 pts toward opponents | 23.2 pts toward opponents | W 37–16 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2024 · W1 | vs. Portland StateHome | Washington State -26.5 | Washington State -26.5 | 0.2 pts toward opponents | 3.3 pts toward Washington State | 3.5 pts toward opponents | W 70–30 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow UncertaintySeason-Opening Quarterback Experience |
| 2023 · W13 | at WashingtonAway | Washington State +18.5 | Washington State +15.5 | 3.2 pts toward Washington State | None identified | 3.2 pts toward Washington State | L 21–24 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W12 | vs. ColoradoHome | Washington State -7 | Washington State -4.5 | 2.5 pts toward opponents | None identified | 2.5 pts toward opponents | W 56–14 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W11 | at CaliforniaAway | Washington State +0.5 | Washington State +1.5 | 0.8 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.8 pts toward opponents | L 39–42 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W10 | vs. StanfordHome | Washington State -16 | Washington State -13.5 | 2.4 pts toward opponents | None identified | 2.4 pts toward opponents | L 7–10 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W9 | at Arizona StateAway | Washington State -10.5 | Washington State -4.5 | 5.9 pts toward opponents | None identified | 5.9 pts toward opponents | L 27–38 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W8 | at OregonAway | Washington State +19.5 | Washington State +19.5 | 0.2 pts toward opponents | None identified | 0.2 pts toward opponents | L 24–38 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W7 | vs. ArizonaHome | Washington State -10 | Washington State -7.5 | 2.7 pts toward opponents | None identified | 2.7 pts toward opponents | L 6–44 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W6 | at UCLAAway | Washington State +7 | Washington State +3.5 | 3.6 pts toward Washington State | None identified | 3.6 pts toward Washington State | L 17–25 | L | None identified |
| 2023 · W4 | vs. Oregon StateHome | Washington State +9 | Washington State +3 | 6.2 pts toward Washington State | None identified | 6.2 pts toward Washington State | W 38–35 | W | None identified |
| 2023 · W3 | vs. Northern ColoradoHome | Washington State -47.5 | Washington State -48 | 0.7 pts toward Washington State | 2.6 pts toward opponents | 3.3 pts toward Washington State | W 64–21 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2023 · W2 | vs. WisconsinHome | Washington State +1 | Washington State +5.5 | 4.6 pts toward opponents | None identified | 4.6 pts toward opponents | W 31–22 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W13 | vs. WashingtonHome | Washington State +3 | Washington State +2.5 | 0.3 pts toward Washington State | None identified | 0.3 pts toward Washington State | L 33–51 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W12 | at ArizonaAway | Washington State -6.5 | Washington State -4 | 2.5 pts toward opponents | None identified | 2.5 pts toward opponents | W 31–20 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W11 | vs. Arizona StateHome | Washington State -11 | Washington State -9.5 | 1.5 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.5 pts toward opponents | W 28–18 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W10 | at StanfordAway | Washington State -4 | Washington State -3 | 1.0 pts toward opponents | None identified | 1.0 pts toward opponents | W 52–14 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W9 | vs. UtahHome | Washington State +11 | Washington State +7.5 | 3.7 pts toward Washington State | None identified | 3.7 pts toward Washington State | L 17–21 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W7 | at Oregon StateAway | Washington State +3.5 | Washington State +3 | 0.3 pts toward Washington State | None identified | 0.3 pts toward Washington State | L 10–24 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W6 | at USCAway | Washington State +13.5 | Washington State +12.5 | 0.8 pts toward Washington State | None identified | 0.8 pts toward Washington State | L 14–30 | L | None identified |
| 2022 · W5 | vs. CaliforniaHome | Washington State -7 | Washington State -4 | 2.9 pts toward opponents | None identified | 2.9 pts toward opponents | W 28–9 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W4 | vs. OregonHome | Washington State +8.5 | Washington State +6.5 | 2.2 pts toward Washington State | None identified | 2.2 pts toward Washington State | L 41–44 | W | None identified |
| 2022 · W2 | at WisconsinAway | Washington State +31 | Washington State +17.5 | 13.6 pts toward Washington State | 3.8 pts toward Washington State | 9.9 pts toward Washington State | W 17–14 | W | Lopsided Game-Flow Uncertainty |
| 2022 · W1 | vs. IdahoHome | Washington State -24.5 | Washington State -28.5 | 4.2 pts toward Washington State | 2.9 pts toward Washington State | 1.3 pts toward Washington State | W 24–17 | L | Lopsided Game-Flow UncertaintySeason-Opening Quarterback Experience |
Sample: 38 market-covered games from 2022–25. Identified adjustments are rough sums of the Factors shown and are not a replacement betting line. Remaining gap is market consensus minus the OV baseline and identified adjustments. A push means the team’s scoring margin exactly matched the market line.